IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v24y2010i13p3547-3559.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Saeed Golian
  • Bahram Saghafian
  • Reza Maknoon

Abstract

“Rainfall threshold” is considered as one of the evolving flood forecasting approaches. When the cumulative rainfall depth for a given initial soil moisture condition intersects the corresponding moisture curve, the peak discharge is expected to be equal or greater than the threshold discharge for flooding at the target site. Besides the total rainfall depth, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall can influence the peak discharge and the time to peak. In the few past studies on the extraction of rainfall threshold curves for flood forecasting, the rainfall assumed to be uniform in space whereas the temporal distribution was subjected to certain assumptions. In the present study, the spatial distribution of rainfall was simulated with the Monte Carlo (MC) method and the mean Huff pattern for all rainfall durations was imposed for the temporal distribution. For each of the MC run, the random weight assigned to every sub-watershed follows the pdf of weights in historical rainfall events. The HEC–HMS model with two different infiltration methods namely SCS–CN and Green–Ampt and Muskingum river routing were adopted as the hydrologic model. After the calibration and validation of the model for Madarsoo watershed in Golestan province in Northeastern Iran, the MC simulations were performed for 1, 2, 6 and 12 h durations. The outputs from the SCS–CN method exhibit only a slight increase in threshold values with respect to duration and was not in the range of our expectations from watershed response, i.e. the rainfalls with greater durations should be greater in depth to produce a specific peak discharge. For the Green–Ampt infiltration method, the rainfall thresholds with 50% probability associated with the critical discharge under dry soil moisture condition were 44.5, 49.0, 64.2 and 94.6 mm for 1, 2, 6 and 12 h durations, respectively. Results for July 2001 flooding revealed that the cumulative rainfall intersected all 10%, 50% and 90% rainfall threshold curves but for July 2005 flooding the 10% curve was only intersected by the cumulative rainfall curve. The advantage of MC-derived rainfall threshold curves in real-time operations is that decision-makers have the flexibility to adopt a curve more consistent with flood observations in the region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Saeed Golian & Bahram Saghafian & Reza Maknoon, 2010. "Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3547-3559, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:13:p:3547-3559
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9619-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-010-9619-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-010-9619-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon Wu & Jonathan Li & G. Huang, 2008. "Characterization and Evaluation of Elevation Data Uncertainty in Water Resources Modeling with GIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(8), pages 959-972, August.
    2. Micha Werner & Paolo Reggiani & Ad Roo & Paul Bates & Eric Sprokkereef, 2005. "Flood Forecasting and Warning at the River Basin and at the European Scale," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 36(1), pages 25-42, September.
    3. Andrew Higgins & Ainsley Archer & Stefan Hajkowicz, 2008. "A Stochastic Non-linear Programming Model for a Multi-period Water Resource Allocation with Multiple Objectives," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1445-1460, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michalis Diakakis, 2012. "Rainfall thresholds for flood triggering. The case of Marathonas in Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 789-800, February.
    2. V. Montesarchio & F. Napolitano & M. Rianna & E. Ridolfi & F. Russo & S. Sebastianelli, 2015. "Comparison of methodologies for flood rainfall thresholds estimation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 909-934, January.
    3. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.
    4. Fränz Zeimetz & Bettina Schaefli & Guillaume Artigue & Javier García Hernández & Anton J. Schleiss, 2018. "Swiss Rainfall Mass Curves and their Influence on Extreme Flood Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2625-2638, June.
    5. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Lu Chen & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Changqing Meng & Na Sun, 2019. "Upper and Lower Bound Interval Forecasting Methodology Based on Ideal Boundary and Multiple Linear Regression Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(3), pages 1203-1215, February.
    6. Bahram Saghafian & Fatemeh Hamzekhani, 2015. "Hydrological drought early warning based on rainfall threshold," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 815-832, November.
    7. Christopher Burgess & Michael Taylor & Tannecia Stephenson & Arpita Mandal & Leiska Powell, 2015. "A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 231-256, August.
    8. Forood Sharifi & S. Samadi & Catherine Wilson, 2012. "Causes and consequences of recent floods in the Golestan catchments and Caspian Sea regions of Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 533-550, March.
    9. Bahram Saghafian & Saeed Golian & Mohammad Elmi & Ruhangiz Akhtari, 2013. "Monte Carlo analysis of the effect of spatial distribution of storms on prioritization of flood source areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1059-1071, March.
    10. Naser Dehghanian & S. Saeid Mousavi Nadoushani & Bahram Saghafian & Ruhangiz Akhtari, 2019. "Performance Evaluation of a Fuzzy Hybrid Clustering Technique to Identify Flood Source Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4621-4636, October.
    11. A. Sharafati & H. M. Azamathulla, 2018. "Assessment of Dam Overtopping Reliability using SUFI Based Overtopping Threshold Curve," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2369-2383, May.
    12. Changjun Liu & Liang Guo & Lei Ye & Shunfu Zhang & Yanzeng Zhao & Tianyu Song, 2018. "A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 619-634, June.
    13. Bahram Saghafian & Saeed Golian & Alireza Ghasemi, 2014. "Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 403-417, March.
    14. Shiang-Jen Wu & Chih-Tsung Hsu & Ho-Cheng Lien & Che-Hao Chang, 2015. "Modeling the effect of uncertainties in rainfall characteristics on flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1677-1711, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Zhineng & Chen, Yazhen & Yao, Liming & Wei, Changting & Li, Chaozhi, 2016. "Optimal allocation of regional water resources: From a perspective of equity–efficiency tradeoff," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 102-113.
    2. Jackson, T.M. & Hanjra, Munir A. & Khan, S. & Hafeez, M.M., 2011. "Building a climate resilient farm: A risk based approach for understanding water, energy and emissions in irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(9), pages 729-745.
    3. Chunlong Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Shuo Ouyang & Chao Wang & Yi Liu, 2015. "Water Resources Optimal Allocation Based on Large-scale Reservoirs in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2171-2187, May.
    4. B. Yan & X. Su & Y. Chen, 2009. "Functional Structure and Data Management of Urban Water Supply Network Based on GIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(13), pages 2633-2653, October.
    5. R. Roozbahani & S. Schreider & B. Abbasi, 2013. "Economic Sharing of Basin Water Resources between Competing Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2965-2988, June.
    6. C. Sharma & A. Mishra & S. Panda, 2014. "Assessing Impact of Flood on River Dynamics and Susceptible Regions: Geomorphometric Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2615-2638, July.
    7. Xiaona Li & Xiaosheng Wang & Haiying Guo & Weimin Ma, 2020. "Multi-Water Resources Optimal Allocation Based on Multi-Objective Uncertain Chance-Constrained Programming Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4881-4899, December.
    8. P. Guo & G. Huang & L. He & H. Zhu, 2009. "Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Semi-infinite Programming: Application to Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 1001-1023, March.
    9. Teresa Torregrosa & Martín Sevilla & Borja Montaño & Victoria López-Vico, 2010. "The Integrated Management of Water Resources in Marina Baja (Alicante, Spain). A Simultaneous Equation Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3799-3815, November.
    10. Melanie Kunz & Adrienne Grêt-Regamey & Lorenz Hurni, 2011. "Visualization of uncertainty in natural hazards assessments using an interactive cartographic information system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1735-1751, December.
    11. Maryam Ghashghaie & Safar Marofi & Hossein Marofi, 2014. "Using System Dynamics Method to Determine the Effect of Water Demand Priorities on Downstream Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5055-5072, November.
    12. Ismail Chenini & Abdallah Mammou & Moufida El May, 2010. "Groundwater Recharge Zone Mapping Using GIS-Based Multi-criteria Analysis: A Case Study in Central Tunisia (Maknassy Basin)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(5), pages 921-939, March.
    13. A. Fernández Bou & R. Sá & M. Cataldi, 2015. "Flood forecasting in the upper Uruguay River basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1239-1256, November.
    14. Bakker, Hannah & Dunke, Fabian & Nickel, Stefan, 2020. "A structuring review on multi-stage optimization under uncertainty: Aligning concepts from theory and practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    15. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    16. Muhammad Hanif & Muhammad Waqas & Amgad Muneer & Ayed Alwadain & Muhammad Atif Tahir & Muhammad Rafi, 2023. "DeepSDC: Deep Ensemble Learner for the Classification of Social-Media Flooding Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-20, March.
    17. Yan Han & Yue-Fei Huang & Guang-Qian Wang & Imran Maqsood, 2011. "A Multi-objective Linear Programming Model with Interval Parameters for Water Resources Allocation in Dalian City," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 449-463, January.
    18. Fuxing Wang & Oliver Saavedra Valeriano & Xinguo Sun, 2013. "Near Real-Time Optimization of Multi-Reservoir during Flood Season in the Fengman Basin of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4315-4335, September.
    19. Pradeep Dogra & V. Sharda & P. Ojasvi & Shiv Prasher & R. Patel, 2014. "Compromise Programming Based Model for Augmenting Food Production with Minimum Water Allocation in a Watershed: a Case Study in the Indian Himalayas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5247-5265, December.
    20. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:13:p:3547-3559. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.