IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v71y2014i1p403-417.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges

Author

Listed:
  • Bahram Saghafian
  • Saeed Golian
  • Alireza Ghasemi

Abstract

Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Bahram Saghafian & Saeed Golian & Alireza Ghasemi, 2014. "Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 403-417, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:1:p:403-417
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0925-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-013-0925-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-013-0925-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Charalambous & Ataur Rahman & Don Carroll, 2013. "Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Technique to Design Flood Estimation: A Case Study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4099-4111, September.
    2. Saeed Golian & Bahram Saghafian & Reza Maknoon, 2010. "Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3547-3559, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmet Ozan Celik & Volkan Kiricci & Canberk Insel, 2017. "Reassessment of the flood damage at a river diversion hydropower plant site: lessons learned from a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 833-847, March.
    2. Naser Dehghanian & S. Saeid Mousavi Nadoushani & Bahram Saghafian & Ruhangiz Akhtari, 2019. "Performance Evaluation of a Fuzzy Hybrid Clustering Technique to Identify Flood Source Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4621-4636, October.
    3. Jean-Marie Zokagoa & Azzeddine Soulaïmani & Pierre Dupuis, 2021. "Flood risk mapping using uncertainty propagation analysis on a peak discharge: case study of the Mille Iles River in Quebec," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 285-310, May.
    4. Sonali Swetapadma & C. S. P. Ojha, 2020. "Selection of a basin-scale model for flood frequency analysis in Mahanadi river basin, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 519-552, May.
    5. Daniela Biondi & Davide Luca, 2015. "Process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins by conditioning model parameters on regional hydrological signatures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1015-1038, November.
    6. Bagher Heidarpour & Bahram Saghafian & Jafar Yazdi & Hazi Mohammad Azamathulla, 2017. "Effect of Extraordinary Large Floods on at-site Flood Frequency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(13), pages 4187-4205, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ravinesh Deo & Hi-Ryong Byun & Jan Adamowski & Do-Woo Kim, 2015. "A Real-time Flood Monitoring Index Based on Daily Effective Precipitation and its Application to Brisbane and Lockyer Valley Flood Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(11), pages 4075-4093, September.
    2. Yichao Xu & Zhiqiang Jiang & Yi Liu & Li Zhang & Jiahao Yang & Hairun Shu, 2023. "An Adaptive Ensemble Framework for Flood Forecasting and Its Application in a Small Watershed Using Distinct Rainfall Interpolation Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 2195-2219, March.
    3. Michalis Diakakis, 2012. "Rainfall thresholds for flood triggering. The case of Marathonas in Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 789-800, February.
    4. A. Sharafati & H. M. Azamathulla, 2018. "Assessment of Dam Overtopping Reliability using SUFI Based Overtopping Threshold Curve," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2369-2383, May.
    5. Bahram Saghafian & Saeed Golian & Mohammad Elmi & Ruhangiz Akhtari, 2013. "Monte Carlo analysis of the effect of spatial distribution of storms on prioritization of flood source areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1059-1071, March.
    6. Guangming Yu & Sa Wang & Qiwu Yu & Lei Wu & Yong Fan & Xiaoli He & Xia Zhou & Huanhuan Jia & Shu Zhang & Xiaojuan Tian, 2014. "The Regional Limit of Flood-Bearing Capability: A Theoretical Model and Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1921-1936, May.
    7. Bahram Saghafian & Fatemeh Hamzekhani, 2015. "Hydrological drought early warning based on rainfall threshold," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 815-832, November.
    8. Andreas Schumann, 2017. "Flood Safety versus Remaining Risks - Options and Limitations of Probabilistic Concepts in Flood Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3131-3145, August.
    9. Forood Sharifi & S. Samadi & Catherine Wilson, 2012. "Causes and consequences of recent floods in the Golestan catchments and Caspian Sea regions of Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 533-550, March.
    10. Yichao Xu & Xinying Wang & Zhiqiang Jiang & Yi Liu & Li Zhang & Yukun Li, 2023. "An Improved Fineness Flood Risk Analysis Method Based on Digital Terrain Acquisition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 3973-3998, August.
    11. Naser Dehghanian & S. Saeid Mousavi Nadoushani & Bahram Saghafian & Ruhangiz Akhtari, 2019. "Performance Evaluation of a Fuzzy Hybrid Clustering Technique to Identify Flood Source Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4621-4636, October.
    12. A. Curran & Karin Bruijn & Alessio Domeneghetti & Federica Bianchi & M. Kok & Sergiy Vorogushyn & Attilio Castellarin, 2020. "Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2027-2049, December.
    13. El Bilali, Ali & Taghi, Youssef & Briouel, Omar & Taleb, Abdeslam & Brouziyne, Youssef, 2022. "A framework based on high-resolution imagery datasets and MCS for forecasting evaporation loss from small reservoirs in groundwater-based agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    14. Changjun Liu & Liang Guo & Lei Ye & Shunfu Zhang & Yanzeng Zhao & Tianyu Song, 2018. "A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 619-634, June.
    15. Carlos Llopis-Albert & José Merigó & Daniel Palacios-Marqués, 2015. "Structure Adaptation in Stochastic Inverse Methods for Integrating Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(1), pages 95-107, January.
    16. V. Montesarchio & F. Napolitano & M. Rianna & E. Ridolfi & F. Russo & S. Sebastianelli, 2015. "Comparison of methodologies for flood rainfall thresholds estimation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 909-934, January.
    17. Fränz Zeimetz & Bettina Schaefli & Guillaume Artigue & Javier García Hernández & Anton J. Schleiss, 2018. "Swiss Rainfall Mass Curves and their Influence on Extreme Flood Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2625-2638, June.
    18. Xiang Fu & An-Qiang Li & Hui Wang, 2014. "Allocation of Flood Control Capacity for a Multireservoir System Located at the Yangtze River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4823-4834, October.
    19. Shiang-Jen Wu & Chih-Tsung Hsu & Ho-Cheng Lien & Che-Hao Chang, 2015. "Modeling the effect of uncertainties in rainfall characteristics on flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1677-1711, January.
    20. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:1:p:403-417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.