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Flood forecasting in the upper Uruguay River basin

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  • A. Fernández Bou
  • R. Sá
  • M. Cataldi

Abstract

Floods are common in the upper Uruguay River, and they may occur almost at any moment, because there are not defined rainfall seasonal patterns. Moreover, there is not an official model for flood forecasting in this basin. This study developed a methodology for 1-month flood forecasting in the upper region of the Uruguay River basin (≥3000 m 3 s −1 ), from the headwaters to the Itá reservoir. The monthly version of the SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure) model was presented and used to describe the transformation of rainfall into runoff, and the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System version 2) model was used to provide rainfall forecasts. Twenty-five 1-month-lead rainfall forecasts were used to calculate 25 flow predictions for every month. Ensembles with different number of members were compared among them and with the official model currently used for 1-month flow forecasting in the upper Uruguay River. The best accuracy was achieved with the average of the first seven members, which showed a mean relative error of 10.8 % during the floods, while the official model presented 64.0 %, predicting remarkably lower flows. Furthermore, during the period assessed, the correlation between the natural flow and the first-seven-member ensemble was >0.77, while with the official model was 0.34. Thus, coupling SMAP and CFS is a valid approach that can be useful to anticipate mitigating actions to decrease the effects of severe floods in the upper Uruguay River and, probably, in other Brazilian basins. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • A. Fernández Bou & R. Sá & M. Cataldi, 2015. "Flood forecasting in the upper Uruguay River basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1239-1256, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:79:y:2015:i:2:p:1239-1256
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1903-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Micha Werner & Paolo Reggiani & Ad Roo & Paul Bates & Eric Sprokkereef, 2005. "Flood Forecasting and Warning at the River Basin and at the European Scale," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 36(1), pages 25-42, September.
    2. P. C. D. Milly & R. T. Wetherald & K. A. Dunne & T. L. Delworth, 2002. "Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6871), pages 514-517, January.
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    3. Fernando Mainardi Fan & Dirk Schwanenberg & Rodolfo Alvarado & Alberto Assis dos Reis & Walter Collischonn & Steffi Naumman, 2016. "Performance of Deterministic and Probabilistic Hydrological Forecasts for the Short-Term Optimization of a Tropical Hydropower Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3609-3625, August.
    4. Leandro Casagrande & Javier Tomasella & Regina Célia Santos Alvalá & Marcus Jorge Bottino & Rochane Oliveira Caram, 2017. "Early flood warning in the Itajaí-Açu River basin using numerical weather forecasting and hydrological modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 741-757, September.
    5. Qinge Peng & Xingnian Liu & Er Huang & Kejun Yang, 2019. "Experimental study on the influence of vegetation on the slope flow concentration time," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(2), pages 751-763, September.

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