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Modeling the effect of uncertainties in rainfall characteristics on flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds

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  • Shiang-Jen Wu
  • Chih-Tsung Hsu
  • Ho-Cheng Lien
  • Che-Hao Chang

Abstract

This study proposes a risk assessment framework for quantifying the reliability of the rainfall threshold used in flash flood warning, which should be influenced by the uncertainties in the rainfall characteristics, including rainfall duration, depth, and storm pattern. This risk assessment framework incorporates the correlated multivariate Monte Carlo simulation method, the Sobek 1D–2D hydrodynamic model, and a logistic regression equation to establish a quantile relationship of the rainfall threshold for quantifying reliability of the rainfall threshold. The Shuhu Creek catchment locates in East Taiwan, and its historical hourly rainfall records on eight typhoon events are used as the study area and data. The results from the proposed framework indicate that the variation in the rainfall threshold declines with the duration; 12-h duration associated with a stable coefficient of variance of the rainfall threshold appears to be appropriate for the flash flood warning in the Shuhu Creek catchment. Moreover, the issued rainfall thresholds in the Shuhu Creek catchment by Water Resources Agency in Taiwan have a low exceedance probability. This infers that inundation might occur as the observed rainfall depth approaches the threshold, so that it is necessary to lower the rainfall threshold in accordance with higher exceedance probability in order to achieve the goal of early flood warning. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Shiang-Jen Wu & Chih-Tsung Hsu & Ho-Cheng Lien & Che-Hao Chang, 2015. "Modeling the effect of uncertainties in rainfall characteristics on flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1677-1711, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:2:p:1677-1711
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1390-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Sengupta & S. Gupta & K. Anbarasu, 2010. "Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslide at Lanta Khola in north Sikkim, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(1), pages 31-42, January.
    2. Shiang-Jen Wu & Jinn-Chuang Yang & Yeou-Koung Tung, 2011. "Risk analysis for flood-control structure under consideration of uncertainties in design flood," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 117-140, July.
    3. Saeed Golian & Bahram Saghafian & Reza Maknoon, 2010. "Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3547-3559, October.
    4. Michalis Diakakis, 2012. "Rainfall thresholds for flood triggering. The case of Marathonas in Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 789-800, February.
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    1. Shiang-Jen Wu & Jie-Sen Mai & Yi-Hong Lin & Keh-Chia Yeh, 2022. "Modeling Probabilistic-Based Reliability Analysis for Irrigation Water Supply Due to Uncertainties in Hydrological and Irrigation Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-25, October.
    2. Raidan Maqtan & Faridah Othman & Wan Zurina Wan Jaafar & Mohsen Sherif & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2022. "A scoping review of flash floods in Malaysia: current status and the way forward," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2387-2416, December.
    3. Geraldo Moura Ramos Filho & Victor Hugo Rabelo Coelho & Emerson da Silva Freitas & Yunqing Xuan & Cristiano das Neves Almeida, 2021. "An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2409-2429, February.

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