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Using System Dynamics Method to Determine the Effect of Water Demand Priorities on Downstream Flow

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  • Maryam Ghashghaie
  • Safar Marofi
  • Hossein Marofi

Abstract

During the past decades, the command and control approaches were used to access a safe water supply policy. However, traditional methods of water management rarely consider complex interactions and outcomes of water allocations which can show their effects in feedback loops. These methods also might deteriorate the situation in long terms as they have not taken into account the outcome of such plans on the future of a watershed as a whole system. Dynamic simulation methods provide flexible tools to accomplish a holistic analysis. This ability of system dynamics method is used in this research to show the feedback of water allocation. Bookan dam is one of the constructed dams in Urmia Lake basin upstream of which four dams are being constructed. Three well known archetypes are shown in this paper that help to recognize the effect of a reservoir water supply on downstream flow. The result of dam construction and water supply priorities on Bookan dam inflow is investigated too. The difference of inflow reduction to Bookan reservoir for the best and worst policies is about 18.4 MCM which is a significant amount. Also the best preference of water demand allocation for four dams was defined as agricultural demand, domestic demand, industrial demand and environmental demand. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Maryam Ghashghaie & Safar Marofi & Hossein Marofi, 2014. "Using System Dynamics Method to Determine the Effect of Water Demand Priorities on Downstream Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5055-5072, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:14:p:5055-5072
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0791-z
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    2. Rakhshinda Bano & Mehdi Khiadani & Yong Sebastian Nyam, 2022. "System Archetypes Underlying Formal-Informal Urban Water Supply Dynamics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 4995-5010, October.
    3. Zhiying Shao & Fengping Wu & Fang Li & Yue Zhao & Xia Xu, 2020. "System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins—A Case Study of Xinjiang," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Aida Hosseini Baghanam & Arshia Jedary Seifi & Ali Sheikhbabaei & Yousef Hassanzadeh & Mohsen Besharat & Esmaeil Asadi, 2022. "Policy-Making toward Integrated Water Resources Management of Zarrine River Basin via System Dynamics Approach under Climate Change Impact," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    5. José-Luis Molina & Santiago Zazo & Ana-María Martín-Casado & María-Carmen Patino-Alonso, 2020. "Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, February.

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