IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v104y2020i3d10.1007_s11069-020-04269-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term flood risk assessment of watersheds under climate change based on the game cross-efficiency DEA

Author

Listed:
  • Qingmu Su

    (National Cheng Kung University)

Abstract

Climate change has significantly increased extreme precipitation and altered regional hydrological cycle, aggravating flood in the watershed. The effective measurement of the risk brought by climate change is an effective way to cope with flood hazard in the future. At the same time, the quality of the simulation of climate change scenarios will also affect the accuracy of flood risk assessment. Therefore, a comprehensive method is needed to measure the long-term disaster risk. However, the current method of subjectively assigning indicator weights is still subjective and difficult to be promoted and applied. So a new model for assessing watershed risk is constructed in this study. Based on the game cross-efficiency data envelopment analysis method and the combination of simulations of climate scenarios, the model can determine the input factors of the assessment and the influencing level of the input factors by using the Principal Component Analysis and Tobit model. The model comprehensively evaluates the flood risk level in the watershed with the results of the simulation of hazard in different climate scenarios, hazard exposure and social vulnerability as input factors, and the degree of disaster loss as the output factor. Results: (1) the hazard, exposure, and social vulnerability are spatially mismatched; (2) the overall risk in the watershed presents such a pattern: upstream (0.751) > downstream (0.418) > midstream (0.362); (3) the long-term flood hazard may be reduced under the influence of climate change. The research is helpful to formulate long-term flood mitigation strategies in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Qingmu Su, 2020. "Long-term flood risk assessment of watersheds under climate change based on the game cross-efficiency DEA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2213-2237, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04269-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04269-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04269-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04269-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiani Mavi, Reza & Saen, Reza Farzipoor & Goh, Mark, 2019. "Joint analysis of eco-efficiency and eco-innovation with common weights in two-stage network DEA: A big data approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 553-562.
    2. Enliang Guo & Jiquan Zhang & Xuehui Ren & Qi Zhang & Zhongyi Sun, 2014. "Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster based on improved set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy set theory in central Liaoning Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 947-965, November.
    3. Richard J. Sexton, 1986. "The Formation of Cooperatives: A Game-Theoretic Approach with Implications for Cooperative Finance, Decision Making, and Stability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 214-225.
    4. Chen, Yao & Cook, Wade D. & Li, Ning & Zhu, Joe, 2009. "Additive efficiency decomposition in two-stage DEA," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1170-1176, August.
    5. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    6. Subhankar Chakraborty & Sutapa Mukhopadhyay, 2019. "Assessing flood risk using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS): application in Coochbehar district of West Bengal, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(1), pages 247-274, October.
    7. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    8. R. D. Banker & A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1984. "Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(9), pages 1078-1092, September.
    9. Elias Bekele & H. Knapp, 2010. "Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3299-3320, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Candau, Fabien & Regnacq, Charles & Schlick, Julie, 2022. "Climate change, comparative advantage and the water capability to produce agricultural goods," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Chao Zhang & Changming Ji & Yi Wang & Qian Xiao, 2022. "Flood hydrograph coincidence analysis of the upper Yangtze River and Dongting Lake, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1339-1360, January.
    3. Qingmu Su & Kaida Chen & Lingyun Liao, 2021. "The Impact of Land Use Change on Disaster Risk from the Perspective of Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Qingmu Su & Hsueh-Sheng Chang & Shin-En Pai, 2022. "A Comparative Study of the Resilience of Urban and Rural Areas under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Fabien Candau & Charles Regnacq & Julie Schlick, 2022. "Climate Change, Comparative Advantage and the Water Capability to Produce Agricultural Goods," Working Papers hal-03671521, HAL.
    6. Qingmu Su & Hsueh-Sheng Chang & Xiang Chen & Jingjing Xiao, 2022. "Metacoupling of Water Transfer: The Interaction of Ecological Environment in the Middle Route of China’s South-North Project," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-22, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgios Tsaples & Jason Papathanasiou & Andreas C. Georgiou, 2022. "An Exploratory DEA and Machine Learning Framework for the Evaluation and Analysis of Sustainability Composite Indicators in the EU," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Feng Li & Qingyuan Zhu & Jun Zhuang, 2018. "Analysis of fire protection efficiency in the United States: a two-stage DEA-based approach," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(1), pages 23-68, January.
    3. Bao-Ngoc Tong & Cheng-Ping Cheng & Lien-Wen Liang & Yi-Jun Liu, 2023. "Using Network DEA to Explore the Effect of Mobile Payment on Taiwanese Bank Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Li, Feng & Zhu, Qingyuan & Chen, Zhi, 2019. "Allocating a fixed cost across the decision making units with two-stage network structures," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 139-154.
    5. Ding, Tao & Zhang, Yun & Zhang, Danlu & Li, Feng, 2023. "Performance evaluation of Chinese research universities: A parallel interactive network DEA approach with shared and fixed sum inputs," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    6. Alizadeh, Reza & Gharizadeh Beiragh, Ramin & Soltanisehat, Leili & Soltanzadeh, Elham & Lund, Peter D., 2020. "Performance evaluation of complex electricity generation systems: A dynamic network-based data envelopment analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Ming-Fu Hsu & Ying-Shao Hsin & Fu-Jiing Shiue, 2022. "Business analytics for corporate risk management and performance improvement," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 629-669, August.
    8. Koronakos, Gregory & Sotiros, Dimitris & Despotis, Dimitris K. & Kritikos, Manolis N., 2022. "Fair efficiency decomposition in network DEA: A compromise programming approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Li, Feng & Zhang, Danlu & Zhang, Jinyu & Kou, Gang, 2022. "Measuring the energy production and utilization efficiency of Chinese thermal power industry with the fixed-sum carbon emission constraint," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    10. Liu, Bingsheng & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing & Zhao, Xue & Chen, Yuan & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "Decision making on post-disaster rescue routing problems from the rescue efficiency perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(1), pages 321-335.
    11. Hsiao-Yen Mao & Wen-Min Lu & Hsin-Yen Shieh, 2023. "Exploring the Influence of Environmental Investment on Multinational Enterprises’ Performance from the Sustainability and Marketability Efficiency Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-23, May.
    12. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Chen, Kuan-Chen & Lin, Chung-I, 2018. "An extension from network DEA to copula-based network SFA: Evidence from the U.S. commercial banks in 2009," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 51-62.
    13. Ibrahim Alnafrah, 2021. "Efficiency evaluation of BRICS’s national innovation systems based on bias-corrected network data envelopment analysis," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    14. Simona Cohen-Kadosh & Zilla Sinuany-Stern, 2020. "Hip fracture surgery efficiency in Israeli hospitals via a network data envelopment analysis," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(1), pages 251-277, March.
    15. Bresciani, Stefano & Puertas, Rosa & Ferraris, Alberto & Santoro, Gabriele, 2021. "Innovation, environmental sustainability and economic development: DEA-Bootstrap and multilevel analysis to compare two regions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    16. Chen, Kun & Wupur, Abduhalik & Abudouguli, Ailifeire & Yang, Guo-liang, 2023. "Measuring the knowledge transfer efficiency of social science in Chinese universities from a think tank perspective," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Mohsen Khodakarami & Amir Shabani & Reza Farzipoor Saen, 2016. "Concurrent estimation of efficiency, effectiveness and returns to scale," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 1202-1220, April.
    18. Puertas, Rosa & Guaita-Martinez, José M. & Carracedo, Patricia & Ribeiro-Soriano, Domingo, 2022. "Analysis of European environmental policies: Improving decision making through eco-efficiency," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Zhang, Linyan & Chen, Kun, 2019. "Hierarchical network systems: An application to high-technology industry in China," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 118-131.
    20. Zare Ahmadabadi, Habib & Zamzam, Fatemeh & Emrouznejad, Ali & Naser Sadrabadi, Alireza & Morovati Sharifabadi, Ali, 2024. "Measuring sustainable performance of OECD countries considering CO2 emissions: A new optimistic-pessimistic distance friction Minimization Model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04269-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.