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Producer to retailer price transmission in cereal markets of Ethiopia

Author

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  • Muhammed A. Usman

    (Bonn University)

  • Mekbib G. Haile

    (Bonn University)

Abstract

This paper investigates price transmission between producer and retail prices of teff, wheat, and maize in Amhara and Oromia, the two major cereal markets in Ethiopia. Market and cereal specific asymmetric error correction models were estimated to analyze producer-retail price transmission using monthly data from 2001 to 2011. For seven out of eight crop-market combinations, with the exception of the Amhara wheat market, we found no evidence of asymmetric price transmission from producer to retail prices in the long run. Neither contemporaneous nor long-run price transmission asymmetry was found in either the Amhara or Oromia teff markets. This was also the case for the maize market except that there existed a short-run asymmetric price transmission that disappeared in the long run in Oromia. We therefore conclude that there is no strong empirical evidence to support the purported ‘market power’ or ‘inventory holding’ behaviour in the Ethiopian cereal markets to explain asymmetric vertical price transmission in the long run. The evidence of asymmetric price transmission for the Amhara wheat market, unlike the wheat market in Oromia, may indicate some differential in the quality of infrastructure and the length and complexity of wheat value chains between these two markets. Symmetric price adjustments in these cereal markets suggest that input price changes may have positive long run implications for food security and welfare of the poor in Ethiopia.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammed A. Usman & Mekbib G. Haile, 2017. "Producer to retailer price transmission in cereal markets of Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 815-829, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:9:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12571-017-0692-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0692-0
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    2. Ridha, Ahmad & Masbar, Raja & Aliasuddin & Silvia, Vivi, 2022. "Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Cocoa Supply Chain in Indonesia," Economia agro-alimentare / Food Economy, Italian Society of Agri-food Economics/Società Italiana di Economia Agro-Alimentare (SIEA), vol. 24(1), May.
    3. Krisha Lim & Bruno Wichmann & Martin K. Luckert & Peter Läderach, 2020. "Impacts of smallholder agricultural adaptation on food security: evidence from Africa, Asia, and Central America," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(1), pages 21-35, February.
    4. Ahmad Ridha & Raja Masbar & Aliasuddin Aliasuddin & Vivi Silvia, 2022. "Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Cocoa Supply Chain in Indonesia," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    5. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "Dynamic Transmissions and Volatility Spillovers between Global Price and U.S. Producer Price in Agricultural Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Alejandro Acosta & Rico Ihle & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2019. "Combining market structure and econometric methods for pricetransmission analysis," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(4), pages 941-951, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetry vertical price transmission; Error correction model; Cereals; Ethiopia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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