IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v164y2022i3d10.1007_s11205-022-02995-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Measure of Wage Risk: Occupation-Specific Evidence for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Helmut Herwartz

    (Georg-August-University)

  • David Rodriguez-Justicia

    (Universitat de Girona)

  • Bernd Theilen

    (Universitat Rovira i Virgili)

Abstract

This study proposes a new measure of wage risk based on estimated probabilities to earn an hourly wage that is below some specific lower quantile of the wage distribution. Using the German SOEP as an information rich data base, we determine wage risks overall and for nine job categories during the period from 1992 until 2015. We find that the low-wage workers in Germany are worse off after the Hartz reforms. In Western Germany this evidence stems from both a reduction of low wages and an increase of wage risk. In Eastern Germany, it is largely due to increased wage risk. Moreover, overall evidence hides important developments at the occupational level.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Herwartz & David Rodriguez-Justicia & Bernd Theilen, 2022. "A New Measure of Wage Risk: Occupation-Specific Evidence for Germany," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1427-1462, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:164:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-022-02995-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-022-02995-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-022-02995-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-022-02995-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Card & Jörg Heining & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Workplace Heterogeneity and the Rise of West German Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 967-1015.
    2. Burda, Michael C. & Seele, Stefanie, 2016. "No role for the Hartz reforms? Demand and supply factors in the German labor market, 1993-2014," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-010, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1432-1467, September.
    4. Gernandt Johannes & Pfeiffer Friedhelm, 2007. "Rising Wage Inequality in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(4), pages 358-380, August.
    5. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri & Guglielmo Weber, 2007. "Health care quality, economic inequality, and precautionary saving," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 327-346, April.
    6. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    7. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Michael Baker & Gary Solon, 2003. "Earnings Dynamics and Inequality among Canadian Men, 1976-1992: Evidence from Longitudinal Income Tax Records," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 267-288, April.
    9. L. Hospido, 2012. "Modelling heterogeneity and dynamics in the volatility of individual wages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 386-414, April.
    10. Robin Jessen & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Sebastian Schmitz, 2018. "How important is precautionary labour supply?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 868-891.
    11. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & David N. Margolis, 1999. "High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 251-334, March.
    12. Martin Biewen & Bernd Fitzenberger & Jakob de Lazzer, 2018. "The role of employment interruptions and part-time work for the rise in wage inequality," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, December.
    13. Krause, Michael U. & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-79.
    14. Christian Dustmann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Uta Sch?nberg & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2014. "From Sick Man of Europe to Economic Superstar: Germany's Resurgent Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 167-188, Winter.
    15. Erling Barth & Alex Bryson & James C. Davis & Richard Freeman, 2016. "It's Where You Work: Increases in the Dispersion of Earnings across Establishments and Individuals in the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S2), pages 67-97.
    16. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    17. Simon C. Parker & Yacine Belghitar & Tim Barmby, 2005. "Wage Uncertainty and the Labour Supply of Self-Employed Workers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 190-207, March.
    18. Andreas Fagereng & Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri, 2016. "Back to Background Risk," EIEF Working Papers Series 1602, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jan 2016.
    19. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Seidlitz, Arnim, 2020. "The 2011 Break in the part-time indicator and the evolution of wage inequality in Germany," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(1), pages 1-1.
    20. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2008. "Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1887-1921, December.
    21. Christian Dustmann & Johannes Ludsteck & Uta Schönberg, 2009. "Revisiting the German Wage Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 843-881.
    22. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Seidliz, Arnim, 2020. "The 2011 Break in the part-time indicator and the evolution of wage inequality in Germany," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(1), pages .1(1-14).
    23. Mecikovsky, Ariel & Wellschmied, Felix, 2016. "Wage Risk, Employment Risk and the Rise in Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 10451, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2003. "Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions," NBER Working Papers 9732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:54:i:1:p:art.1 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Seidliz, Arnim, 2020. "The 2011 Break in the part-time indicator and the evolution of wage inequality in Germany," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(1), pages 1-14.
    27. Bernd Fitzenberger & Arnim Seidlitz, 2020. "The 2011 break in the part-time indicator and the evolution of wage inequality in Germany," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-14, December.
    28. Bradley, Jake & Kügler, Alice, 2019. "Labor market reforms: An evaluation of the Hartz policies in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 108-135.
    29. Daniel Schaefer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Recent Changes in British Wage Inequality: Evidence from Large Firms and Occupations," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 100-125, February.
    30. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:54:i:54:p:art.1,14 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    32. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January.
    33. Ulf Rinne & Klaus Zimmermann, 2012. "Another economic miracle? The German labor market and the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, December.
    34. Andreas Fagereng & Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri, 2018. "Portfolio Choices, Firm Shocks, and Uninsurable Wage Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 437-474.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cortes, Matias & Lerche, Adrian & Schönberg, Uta & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2023. "Technological Change, Firm Heterogeneity and Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 16070, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Moritz Drechsel‐Grau & Andreas Peichl & Kai D. Schmid & Johannes F. Schmieder & Hannes Walz & Stefanie Wolter, 2022. "Inequality and income dynamics in Germany," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1593-1635, November.
    3. Hollandt, Nils Torben & Müller, Steffen, 2024. "The Contribution of Employer Changes to Aggregate Wage Mobility," IZA Discussion Papers 17259, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Daniel Baumgarten & Gabriel Felbermayr & Sybille Lehwald, 2020. "Dissecting Between‐Plant and Within‐Plant Wage Dispersion: Evidence from Germany," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 85-122, January.
    5. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-022 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Burda Michael C. & Seele Stefanie, 2017. "Das deutsche Arbeitsmarktwunder: Eine Bilanz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 179-204, October.
    7. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Launov, Andrey & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2021. "The fall in german unemployment: A flow analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Lea Immel, 2021. "The Impact of Labor Market Reforms on Income Inequality: Evidence from the German Hartz Reforms," ifo Working Paper Series 347, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Benjamin Friedrich & Costas Meghir & Lisa Laun & Luigi Pistaferri, 2018. "Earnings Dynamics and Firm-Level Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 536, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Benjamin Lochner & Bastian Schulz, 2024. "Firm Productivity, Wages, and Sorting," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 85-119.
    11. Bernd Fitzenberger & Arnim Seidlitz, 2020. "Die Lohnungleichheit von Vollzeitbeschäftigten in Deutschland: Rückblick und Überblick [Wage inequality among the full-time employed in Germany revisited: An overview]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 14(2), pages 125-143, July.
    12. Colja Schneck, 2021. "Trends in Wage Inequality in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 253-289, August.
    13. Riedel, Lukas, 2024. "Wage inequality consequences of expanding public childcare," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-006, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Seele, Stefanie & Burda, Michael, 2016. "No Role for the Hartz Reforms? Demand and Supply Factors in the German Labor Market, 1993-2014," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145650, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Pora, Pierre & Wilner, Lionel, 2020. "A decomposition of labor earnings growth: Recovering Gaussianity?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Phan, Van & Singleton, Carl & Bryson, Alex & Forth, John & Ritchie, Felix & Stokes, Lucy & Whittard, Damian, 2022. "Accounting for Firms in Ethnicity Wage Gaps throughout the Earnings Distribution," IZA Discussion Papers 15284, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1514 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Moser, Christian & Saidi, Farzad & Wirth, Benjamin & Wolter, Stefanie, 2020. "Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality," MPRA Paper 100371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-010 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Stüber, Heiko & Grabka, Markus M. & Schnitzlein, Daniel D., 2023. "A tale of two data sets: comparing German administrative and survey data using wage inequality as an example," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 57, pages 1-8.
    21. Christina Langer & Simon Wiederhold, 2023. "The Value of Early-Career Skills," Working Papers 222, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    22. Peichl, Andreas & Popp, Martin, 2022. "Can the Labor Demand Curve Explain Job Polarization?," IAB-Discussion Paper 202221, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    23. Winkler, Erwin, 2020. "Diverging paths: Labor reallocation, sorting, and wage inequality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224535, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage risk; German labor market; Job-specific wage risk; German SOEP; Probit models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:164:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-022-02995-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.