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Can the Labor Demand Curve Explain Job Polarization?

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  • Andreas Peichl
  • Martin Popp

Abstract

In recent decades, many industrialized economies have witnessed a pattern of job polarization. While shifts in labor demand, namely routinization or offshoring, constitute conventional explanations for job polarization, there is little research on whether shifts in labor supply along the labor demand curve may equally result in job polarization. In this study, we assess the impact of labor supply shifts on job polarization. To this end, we determine unconditional wage elasticities of labor demand from a unique estimation of a profit-maximization model on linked employer-employee data from Germany. Unlike standard practice, we explicitly allow for variations in output and find that negative scale effects matter. Both for a skill- and a novel task-based division of the workforce, our elasticity estimates show that supply shifts from immigration and a decline in collective bargaining successfully explain occupational employment patterns during the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Peichl & Martin Popp, 2022. "Can the Labor Demand Curve Explain Job Polarization?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9799, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9799
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    1. Martin Popp, 2023. "How elastic is labor demand? A meta-analysis for the German labor market," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-21, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor demand; job polarization; skills; tasks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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