IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v133y2017i2d10.1007_s11205-016-1376-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Aneta Maria Kłopocka

    (University of Finance and Management in Warsaw)

Abstract

Consumer confidence plays an important role in households’ decision-making processes. This study investigates the effects of consumer confidence on household saving and borrowing behavior that are unsatisfactorily considered in previous discussions. The questions of interest are first, whether indexes of consumer confidence have any predictive power on their own for future household saving and borrowing rates, and second, whether they contain information about future household saving and borrowing rates aside from the information contained in other available indicators. In addition to aggregate confidence indicators, their components are used to provide more precise information. Overall, the multiple linear regression analysis (OLS technique) of Polish time-series data gives positive answers to both questions. This finding supports the recommendation of combining the strengths of objective indicators (such as economic fundamentals) and subjective indicators (such as consumer confidence) to improve household financial behavior forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:133:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1376-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-016-1376-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-016-1376-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-016-1376-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    2. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 114-138, April.
    3. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    4. Ali Al‐Eyd & Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2009. "Consumer Confidence Indices And Short‐Term Forecasting Of Consumption," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 96-111, January.
    5. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Garratt, Dean & Heravi, Saeed M., 2005. "Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 517-532, September.
    6. Douglas Lamdin, 2008. "Does Consumer Sentiment Foretell Revolving Credit Use?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 279-288, June.
    7. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    8. Piotr Bialowolski & Dorota Weziak-Bialowolska, 2014. "Erratum to: The Index of Household Financial Condition, Combining Subjective and Objective Indicators: An Appraisal of Italian Households," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 387-387, August.
    9. Jan Rouwendal & Simonetta Longhi, 2007. "The Effect of Consumers' Expectations in a Booming Housing Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-078/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2013. "Private Saving Rates and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 323-349.
    11. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Fan, Chengze Simon & Wong, Phoebe, 1998. "Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?: The Hong Kong case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 77-84, January.
    13. James A Wilcox, 2007. "Forecasting Components of Consumption with Components of Consumer Sentiment," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 22-32, October.
    14. Piotr Bialowolski & Dorota Weziak-Bialowolska, 2014. "The Index of Household Financial Condition, Combining Subjective and Objective Indicators: An Appraisal of Italian Households," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 365-385, August.
    15. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
    16. Nofsinger, John R., 2012. "Household behavior and boom/bust cycles," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 161-173.
    17. Dawson, Chris & Henley, Andrew, 2012. "Something will turn up? Financial over-optimism and mortgage arrears," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 49-52.
    18. Frank M. Fossen & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2013. "Precautionary and Entrepreneurial Savings: New Evidence from German Households," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 528-555, August.
    19. Chamon, Marcos & Liu, Kai & Prasad, Eswar, 2013. "Income uncertainty and household savings in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 164-177.
    20. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    21. Marco Malgarini & Patrizia Margani, 2007. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1719-1729.
    22. Aleksandra Kolasa & Barbara Liberda, 2015. "Determinants of Saving in Poland: Are They Different from Those in Other OECD Countries?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 124-148, March.
    23. Yasemin Özerkek & Sadullah Çelik, 2010. "The Link between Government Spending, Consumer Confidence and Consumption Expenditures in Emerging Market Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 471-485, December.
    24. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Rob Alessie, 2014. "The precautionary savings motive and household savings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 164-187, January.
    25. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, April.
    26. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
    27. Khoon Lek Goh, 2003. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/22, New Zealand Treasury.
    28. Evren Ceritoğlu, 2013. "The impact of labour income risk on household saving decisions in Turkey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 109-129, March.
    29. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2006. "Financial expectations, consumption and saving: a microeconomic analysis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 313-338, August.
    30. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Forecasting Consumption: the Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1254-1275, November.
    31. Krzysztof Zagórski & John McDonnell, 1995. "“Consumer Confidence” Indexes as social indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 227-246, November.
    32. repec:cii:cepiei:2013-q2-134-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Giancarlo Bruno, 2014. "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, February.
    34. Jason Bram & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 59-78.
    35. Runt Veenhoven, 2002. "Why Social Policy Needs Subjective Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 33-46, June.
    36. Barbara Liberda & Marek Pęczkowski, 2012. "Polarization of household saving in Poland during financial crisis 2007-2010," Working Papers 2012-19, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    37. Marta Lachowska, 2013. "Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data," Upjohn Working Papers 13-197, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    38. Martha A. Starr, 2012. "Consumption, Sentiment, And Economic News," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 1097-1111, October.
    39. Marek Kośny & Maria Piotrowska, 2013. "Economic security of households and their savings and credits," NBP Working Papers 146, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    40. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    41. Andy C. C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2004. "Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 136-144, July.
    42. Aleksandra Kolasa & Barbara Liberda, 2014. "Determinants of saving in Poland: Are they different than in other OECD countries?," Working Papers 2014-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    43. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2005. "Debt and Financial Expectations: An Individual- and Household-Level Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 100-120, January.
    44. Marta Lachowska, 2016. "Expenditure and confidence: using daily data to identify shocks to consumer confidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 920-944.
    45. Malgorzata Roszkiewicz, 2006. "Attitudes Towards Saving in Polish Society During Transformation," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 78(3), pages 429-452, September.
    46. Andy C.C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2006. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 185-197, January.
    47. John A. Cotsomitis & Andy C. C. Kwan, 2006. "Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European COmmission Business and Consumer Surveys," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 597-610, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrzej Cieslik & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "Economic sentiment indicators and foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence from European Union countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 56-75.
    2. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Kallandranis, Christos & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Borrower discouragement prevalence for Eurozone SMEs: Investigating the impact of economic sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 161-171.
    3. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    4. Xu, Can, 2023. "Do households react to policy uncertainty by increasing savings?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 770-785.
    5. Melanie Koch & Thomas Scheiber, 2022. "Household savings in CESEE: expectations, experiences and common predictors," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/22, pages 29-54.
    6. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
    7. Maryna Brychko & Tetyana Vasilyeva & Zuzana Rowland & Serhiy Lyeonov, 2021. "Does the real estate market behavior predict the trust crisis in the financial sector? The case of the ECB and the Euro," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(4), pages 711-740, December.
    8. Čižmešija Mirjana & Lukač Zrinka & Novoselec Tomislav, 2019. "Nonlinear optimisation approach to proposing novel Croatian Industrial Confidence Indicator," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 17-26, December.
    9. Eva Branten, 2022. "The role of risk attitudes and expectations in household borrowing: evidence from Estonia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 126-145.
    10. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Jan Frait, 2021. "What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 885-913, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
    2. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.
    3. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    4. Hector H. Sandoval & Anita N. Walsh, 2021. "The role of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption, evidence from Florida," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 757-788, October.
    5. Stephen Bruestle & W. Mark Crain, 2015. "A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2430-2444, May.
    6. Baghestani, Hamid, 2021. "Predicting growth in US durables spending using consumer durables-buying attitudes," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 327-336.
    7. Aneta Maria Kłopocka & Tomasz Kopczyński & Grażyna Lenicka-Bajer, 2014. "Financial Situation And Attitudes Towards Saving In Polish Society:Evidence From Micro Data," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0, pages 476-486, May.
    8. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020. "Does business confidence matter for investment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1633-1665, October.
    10. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
    11. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.
    12. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2019. "Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-031/I, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Mar 2023.
    13. Ahmet Yağmur Ersoy & Metin Saygılı & Mustafa İlteriş Yılmaz & Mustafa Emre Uslu & İhsan Hakan Selvi, 2022. "Consumer Sentiment in Turkey, from Closure to the New Normal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    14. Konstantinou, Panagiotis & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1629-1641, July.
    15. Hamid Baghestani & Sehar Fatima, 2021. "Growth in US Durables Spending: Assessing the Impact of Consumer Ability and Willingness to Buy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, April.
    16. André Filipe Guedes Almeida & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Effects of crime and violence on business confidence: evidence from Rio de Janeiro," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1669-1688, May.
    17. Abosedra, Salah & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Fakih, Ali, 2021. "Dynamics and asymmetries between consumer sentiment and consumption in pre- and during-COVID-19 time: Evidence from the US," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    18. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
    19. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Determinants of Consumer Sentiment Over Business Cycles: Evidence from the US Surveys of Consumers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 187-215, December.
    20. Bengt Assarsson & Pär Österholm, 2015. "Do Swedish Consumer Confidence Indicators Do What They Are Intended to Do?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 61(4), pages 391-404.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer sentiment; Household saving rate; Household debt; Financial expectations; Subjective and objective indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:133:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1376-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.