IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i15p9135-d871732.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Consumer Sentiment in Turkey, from Closure to the New Normal

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmet Yağmur Ersoy

    (Sakarya Business School, Sakarya University, Sakarya 54050, Turkey)

  • Metin Saygılı

    (Faculty of Applied Sciences, Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, Sakarya 54650, Turkey)

  • Mustafa İlteriş Yılmaz

    (Faculty of Economics Administrative and Social Sciences, Istanbul Topkapi University, İstanbul 34020, Turkey
    Sakarya Graduate School of Business, Sakarya University, Sakarya 54050, Turkey)

  • Mustafa Emre Uslu

    (Sakarya Graduate School of Business, Sakarya University, Sakarya 54050, Turkey)

  • İhsan Hakan Selvi

    (Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences, Sakarya University, Sakarya 54050, Turkey)

Abstract

The main aim of the study was to analyze consumer sentiment in the COVID-19 pandemic period in the context of Turkey. In this context, “expectations of consumers regarding the changes in their current income and general expenditures in the economic conditions brought along with normalization process” and “in what direction consumer sentiment would change in the 6-month period following the normalization process in Turkey” were investigated. Based on these research questions, a descriptive study was conducted by adopting a quantitative research method. The questionnaire method was employed in the collection of the study data. As the COVID-19 pandemic was still ongoing when the study was conducted, the data were collected through an online questionnaire by using the convenience sampling method. The data that were obtained from 1147 participants were analyzed by using descriptive statistics through SPSS 24 software. The results that were obtained demonstrated that almost half of the consumers anticipated a decrease in their income in the 6-month period following the normalization process, and that they expected their expenditures would be reduced. In addition, it was determined that consumers were pessimistic in terms of the potential changes that would occur in their personal savings and family living conditions. Hence, it was found that consumers did not expect a considerable improvement in their economic and living conditions in the 6-month period following the normalization process. As the results that were obtained from consumers’ expectations were conscious estimations, as discussed in the assumption of rational expectations theory, they support the estimations of this economic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmet Yağmur Ersoy & Metin Saygılı & Mustafa İlteriş Yılmaz & Mustafa Emre Uslu & İhsan Hakan Selvi, 2022. "Consumer Sentiment in Turkey, from Closure to the New Normal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:15:p:9135-:d:871732
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/15/9135/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/15/9135/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fazel Hesham & Harizi Riadh & Nasr Khouadja Sihem, 2021. "What Have We Learned about the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer Behavior?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    3. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    4. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    5. Andy C. C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2004. "Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 136-144, July.
    6. van der Wielen, Wouter & Barrios, Salvador, 2021. "Economic sentiment during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from search behaviour in the EU," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    8. Jason Bram & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 59-78.
    9. Dimitris Skalkos & Ioanna S. Kosma & Areti Vasiliou & Raquel P. F. Guine, 2021. "Consumers’ Trust in Greek Traditional Foods in the Post COVID-19 Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2016. "On the econometric modelling of consumer sentiment shocks in SVARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1033-1051, November.
    11. Lee Cronbach, 1951. "Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 16(3), pages 297-334, September.
    12. Hoover, Kevin D. & Young, Warren, 2013. "Rational Expectations: Retrospect And Prospect," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 1169-1192, July.
    13. Krzysztof Zagórski & John McDonnell, 1995. "“Consumer Confidence” Indexes as social indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 227-246, November.
    14. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    15. Naeem Akhtar & Muhammad Nadeem Akhtar & Muhammad Usman & Moazzam Ali & Umar Iqbal Siddiqi, 2020. "COVID-19 restrictions and consumers’ psychological reactance toward offline shopping freedom restoration," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13-14), pages 891-913, October.
    16. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    17. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1254-1278, December.
    18. Patrick Brandtner & Farzaneh Darbanian & Taha Falatouri & Chibuzor Udokwu, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Customer End of Retail Supply Chains: A Big Data Analysis of Consumer Satisfaction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    19. Gupta, Rangan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Modise, Mampho P. & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Can economic uncertainty, financial stress and consumer sentiments predict U.S. equity premium?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 367-378.
    20. repec:cii:cepiei:2013-q2-134-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    22. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
    23. Silvius STANCIU & Riana Iren RADU & Violeta SAPIRA & Bogdan Dumitrache BRATOVEANU & Andrei Mirel FLOREA, 2020. "Consumer Behavior in Crisis Situations. Research on the Effects of COVID-19 in Romania," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 5-13.
    24. Andy C. C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2004. "Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 136-144, July.
    25. Richard Curtin, 2007. "Consumer Sentiment Surveys: Worldwide Review and Assessment," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(1), pages 7-42.
    26. Christian Gillitzer & Nalini Prasad, 2018. "The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 234-269, October.
    27. Dou, Zhengxia & Stefanovski, Darko & Galligan, David & Lindem, Margaret & Rozin, Paul & Chen, Ting & Chao, Ariana M., 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic Impacting Household Food Dynamics: A Cross-National Comparison of China and the U.S," SocArXiv 64jwy, Center for Open Science.
    28. Piergiorgio Degli Esposti & Ariela Mortara & Geraldina Roberti, 2021. "Sharing and Sustainable Consumption in the Era of COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-15, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    2. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
    3. Hatice Gökçe Karasoy Can & Çağlar Yüncüler, 2018. "The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 2136-2152, July.
    4. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
    5. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2019. "Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-031/I, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Mar 2023.
    7. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Determinants of Consumer Sentiment Over Business Cycles: Evidence from the US Surveys of Consumers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 187-215, December.
    8. Hector H. Sandoval & Anita N. Walsh, 2021. "The role of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption, evidence from Florida," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 757-788, October.
    9. Hamid Baghestani & Sehar Fatima, 2021. "Growth in US Durables Spending: Assessing the Impact of Consumer Ability and Willingness to Buy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, April.
    10. Stephen Bruestle & W. Mark Crain, 2015. "A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2430-2444, May.
    11. Bui, Dzung & Dräger, Lena & Hayo, Bernd & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Macroeconomic expectations and consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of others’ beliefs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Jan Frait, 2021. "What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 885-913, June.
    13. Baghestani, Hamid, 2021. "Predicting growth in US durables spending using consumer durables-buying attitudes," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 327-336.
    14. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Forecasting Consumption: the Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1254-1275, November.
    15. Vosen, Simeon & Schmidt, Torsten, 2012. "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on Internet search query data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(7), pages 683-687.
    16. Dräger, Lena & Bui, Dzung & Nghiem, Giang & Hayo, Bernd, 2021. "Consumer Sentiment During the COVID-19 Pandemic," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242375, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Dzung Bui & Lena Draeger & Bernd Hayo & Giang NghiemŸ, 2020. "Consumer Sentiment During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Others' Beliefs," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202049, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Hanjo Odendaal & Monique Reid & Johann F. Kirsten, 2020. "Media‐Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 409-434, December.
    19. Dilyara Ibragimova, 2014. "Consumer Expectations Of Russian Populations: Cohort Analysis (1996–2009)," HSE Working papers WP BRP 41/SOC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    20. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:15:p:9135-:d:871732. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.