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Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Brown

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

  • Karl Taylor

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

  • Robert McNabb

Abstract

We explore the determinants of individuals´ financial expectations using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) 1991-2001. Our findings suggest that individuals´ financial predictions are influenced by both the life cycle and the business cycle. We also investigate the extent to which the accuracy of past financial expectations affects current financial expectations. Interestingly, only past financial optimism matters, regardless of the accuracy of the prediction. We also explore the relationship between financial realisations and expectations and we find that expectations tend to fall short of financial realisations. Finally, we investigate the relationship between financial expectations, savings and consumption. Our findings suggest that financial optimism is inversely associated with savings and that current financial expectations serve to predict future consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2006. "Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis," Working Papers 2006006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2006006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anita Ratcliffe, 2012. "Wealth Effects or Economic Barometer: Why Do House Prices Matter for Psychological Health?," Working Papers 2012014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    2. Bovi, Maurizio, 2009. "Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 563-574, August.
    3. Luigi Giamboni & Emanuele Millemaci & Robert J. Waldmann, 2013. "Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 4004-4021, October.
    4. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, April.
    5. Lena Dräger, 2016. "Are Consumers Planning Consumption According to an Euler Equation?," Working Papers 1621, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    6. Albuquerque, Rui & de Araujo, Bruno & Brandao-Marques, Luis & Mosse, Gerivasia & de Vletter, Pippy & Zavale, Helder, 2024. "Market timing, farmer expectations, and liquidity constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Sarah Brown & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer & Karl Taylor, 2024. "Financial Expectations and Household Consumption: Does Middle‐Inflation Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 741-768, June.
    8. Lukáš Mohelský, 2011. "Impact of the Car Scrapping Scheme on Consumer Behaviour and Aggregate Consumption," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(3), pages 268-287.
    9. Christopher Dawson & David de Meza & Andrew Henley & G. Reza Arabsheibani, 2014. "Entrepreneurship: Cause and Consequence of Financial Optimism," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 717-742, December.
    10. Timmons, Shane & Robertson, Deirdre & Lunn, Pete, 2022. "Combining nudges and boosts to increase precautionary saving: A large-scale field experiment," Papers WP722, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    12. Liu, Jingyang & Yang, Haoran, 2023. "Income allocation and distribution along with high-speed rail development in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    13. Kristoffer Persson, 2020. "Economic Reality, Economic Media and Individuals' Expectations," Papers 2007.13823, arXiv.org.
    14. Maurizio Bovi, 2008. "The “Psycho-analysis” of Common People’s Forecast Errors. Evidence from European Consumer Surveys," ISAE Working Papers 95 Classification-JEL C42, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    15. Suresh Gopal & Prakash Malliasamy, 2022. "Transformational Impact of COVID-19 on Savings and Spending Patterns of Indian Rural Households," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, February.
    16. Abildgren, Kim & Hansen, Niels Lynggård & Kuchler, Andreas, 2018. "Overoptimism and house price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-14.
    17. Erden, Zeynep & Klang, David & Sydler, Renato & von Krogh, Georg, 2014. "Knowledge-flows and firm performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 2777-2785.
    18. Aneta Maria Kłopocka & Tomasz Kopczyński & Grażyna Lenicka-Bajer, 2014. "Financial Situation And Attitudes Towards Saving In Polish Society:Evidence From Micro Data," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0, pages 476-486, May.
    19. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Expectations, Reservation Wages And Employment: Evidence From British Panel Data," Working Papers 2008007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2008.
    20. Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin R., 2007. "The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households: micro evidence from the British household panel survey," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,19, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.
    22. Dawson, Chris & Henley, Andrew, 2012. "Something will turn up? Financial over-optimism and mortgage arrears," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 49-52.
    23. Bibiana Lanzilotta Mernies, 2015. "Expectativas empresariales: consecuencias en el crecimiento en Uruguay," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, March.
    24. Brown, Sarah & Ghosh, Pulak & Pareek, Bhuvanesh & Taylor, Karl, 2021. "The protective role of saving: Bayesian analysis of British panel data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 57-72.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Financial Expectations; Financial Realisations; Forecasting Accuracy; Savings.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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