IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bic/journl/v22y2022i2p126-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of risk attitudes and expectations in household borrowing: evidence from Estonia

Author

Listed:
  • Eva Branten

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Tallinna Tehnikaulikool, Tallinn, Estonia)

Abstract

This study investigates the role of risk attitudes and financial expectations in households’ borrowing behaviour. The central research question is whether risk aversion and optimistic expectations provide additional information beyond the main economic and sociodemographic characteristics in predicting applications for credit and the size of debt. The paper uses microdata from the Estonian Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and estimates probit and Heckman models. My analysis shows that risk-tolerant households apply for loans more often than risk-averse households do and that their loans are larger. The variables describing the household's expectations for its future financial situation are on their own related to the decision to apply for a loan, but they do not contain any relevant additional information beyond the main economic and sociodemographic characteristics of the household.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Branten, 2022. "The role of risk attitudes and expectations in household borrowing: evidence from Estonia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 126-145.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:22:y:2022:i:2:p:126-145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/1406099X.2022.2112485
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    2. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marco Terraneo, 2018. "Households’ financial vulnerability in Southern Europe," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(3), pages 521-542, August.
    5. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor, 2013. "Household Debt And Attitudes Toward Risk," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(2), pages 283-304, June.
    6. Dohmen, Thomas & Lehmann, Hartmut & Pignatti, Norberto, 2016. "Time-varying individual risk attitudes over the Great Recession: A comparison of Germany and Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 182-200.
    7. Fisher, Patti J. & Yao, Rui, 2017. "Gender differences in financial risk tolerance," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 191-202.
    8. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Mortgages and Financial Expectations: A Household‐Level Analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 857-878, January.
    9. Hayne E. Leland, 1968. "Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(3), pages 465-473.
    10. Tavor, Tchai, 2019. "The theoretical attitude and actual behavior of an individual towards risk," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2016. "Does consumer confidence affect durable goods spending during bad and good economic times equally?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-97.
    12. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    13. Francesco Pattarin & Stefano Cosma, 2012. "Psychological determinants of consumer credit: the role of attitudes," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 113-129, November.
    14. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2005. "Debt and Financial Expectations: An Individual- and Household-Level Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 100-120, January.
    15. Van de Venter, Gerhard & Michayluk, David & Davey, Geoff, 2012. "A longitudinal study of financial risk tolerance," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 794-800.
    16. Ari Hyytinen & Hanna Putkuri, 2018. "Household Optimism and Overborrowing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 55-76, February.
    17. Banks, James & Bassoli, Elena & Mammi, Irene, 2020. "Changing attitudes to risk at older ages: The role of health and other life events," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Colasante, Annarita & Riccetti, Luca, 2021. "Financial and non-financial risk attitudes: What does it matter?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyriaki G. Louka & Nektarios A. Michail, 2022. "Missed Payments, Renegotiations, and Household Consumption," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 20(1), pages 31-50.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hubbard, R. Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1994. "The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 59-125, June.
    2. Hermansson, Cecilia, 2016. "Relationships between bank customers’ risk attitudes and their balance sheets," Working Paper Series 15/12, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    3. He, Rong & Li, Heqing & Lian, Zeng & Zheng, Jie, 2020. "The effect of culture on consumption: A behavioral approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Juan Ignacio Martín-Legendre & José Manuel Sánchez-Santos, 2024. "Household debt and financial vulnerability: empirical evidence for Spain, 2002–2020," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 703-730, August.
    5. Baiardi, Donatella & Manera, Matteo & Menegatti, Mario, 2013. "Consumption and precautionary saving: An empirical analysis under both financial and environmental risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 157-166.
    6. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2014. "Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis for Irish Households, 1994 to 2005," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(4), pages 511-535.
    7. Zhou, Jingkui, 2013. "Uncertainty, inequality and consumption preferences in urban China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 308-322.
    8. Chichaibelu, Bezawit Beyene & Waibel, Hermann, 2018. "Over-indebtedness and its persistence in rural households in Thailand and Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-23.
    9. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Li Shang & Xiaoling Zhang & Decai Tang & Xiaoxue Ma & Chunfeng Lu, 2023. "The Impact of Housing Support Expenditure on Urban Residents’ Consumption—Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-24, June.
    11. Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2016. "Optimal consumption and savings with stochastic income and recursive utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 292-331.
    12. Gerlach, Petra, 2013. "The Effect of Unemployment, Arrears and Negative Equity on Consumption: Ireland in 2009/10," Papers WP457, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    14. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    15. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2012. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3309-3322, September.
    16. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2001. "Una Revisión del COmportamiento y de los determinantes del ahorro en el mundo," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Felipe Morandé & Rodrigo Vergara & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edit (ed.),Análisis Empírico del Ahorro en Chile, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 13-48, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2008. "The "New consensus"and the Post-Keynesian approach to the analysis of liquidity traps," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 08-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    18. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2020. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 40-76, July.
    19. Conor O'Toole & Kieran McQuinn & Philip Economides, 2021. "Household savings constraints, uncertainty and macroprudential policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 238-260, May.
    20. Rajat Deb, 2016. "Determinants of Savings in Sukanya Samriddhi Account: Evidence from Tripura," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(2), pages 120-140, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    household debt; mortgage loans; non-mortgage loans; borrowing decisions; income and price expectations; risk attitudes; Household Finance and Consumption Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:22:y:2022:i:2:p:126-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Zasova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/biceplv.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.