IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pes/ierequ/v16y2021i4p711-740.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the real estate market behavior predict the trust crisis in the financial sector? The case of the ECB and the Euro

Author

Listed:
  • Maryna Brychko

    (Sumy State University, Ukraine)

  • Tetyana Vasilyeva

    (Sumy State University, Ukraine)

  • Zuzana Rowland

    (Institute of Technology and Business, School of Expertness and Valuation, Czech Republic)

  • Serhiy Lyeonov

    (Sumy State University, Ukraine)

Abstract

Research background: Based on the history of financial crises, real estate market behavior could be thought of as a key benchmark of trust shifts in the financial sector of the economy. Plunging real estate asset prices accompanied by the financial "bubbles" explosion could be viewed as the harbinger — even the cause — of the public trust crash in the financial sector. Purpose of the article: This study intends to assess the extent to which the real estate market behavior determinants, along with financial sector consumers' feelings, are able to predict trust crises in the financial sector, namely to its primary institutions — European Central Bank and the Euro. Methods: In order to estimate the probability of a trust crisis in the financial sector, two logistic regression logit models were developed based on two types of dependent variables as they reflect trust violations in the financial system primary institutions — net trust in European Central Bank (Model I) and net support for the Euro (Model II). The research was conducted on quarterly panel data of the EU countries from the euro area covering the period from 2000 to 2019. Logit regressions employed for data processing and analysis were performed in the computational system STATISTICA. Findings & value added: The logit-modeling results show that determinants of irrational real estate buyers' behavior are powerless in predicting the escalation of the trust crisis in the Euro. However, binary models of real estate market behavior could be successfully used to predict the probability of the trust crisis in the European Central Bank. The results show that real house price indices, price to income ratio, price to rent ratio, and rent prices accompanied by the financial sector consumers' feelings are statistically significant, providing the best distribution between the normal times and periods of trust crisis in the European Central Bank. Irrational real estate market behavior may indicate serious problems in the trust violations in the European Central Bank, and it should be a signal for policymakers to take actions towards more efficient financial and real estate market regulation following the behavioral approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Maryna Brychko & Tetyana Vasilyeva & Zuzana Rowland & Serhiy Lyeonov, 2021. "Does the real estate market behavior predict the trust crisis in the financial sector? The case of the ECB and the Euro," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(4), pages 711-740, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:711-740
    DOI: 10.24136/eq.2021.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2021.026
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24136/eq.2021.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mirjana Jemović & Srđan Marinković, 2021. "Determinants of financial crises—An early warning system based on panel logit regression," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 103-117, January.
    2. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 114-138, April.
    3. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    4. Thi Anh Nhu Nguyen & Jiri Polach & Iveta Voznakova, 2019. "The role of financial literacy in retirement investment choice," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(4), pages 569-589, December.
    5. Michael D. Edelstein & Robert H. Edelstein, 2020. "Crashes, Contagion, Cygnus, and Complexities: Global Economic Crises and Real Estate," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 311-336.
    6. Nofsinger, John R., 2012. "Household behavior and boom/bust cycles," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 161-173.
    7. Jyoti Vohra & Pavleen Soni, 2015. "Logit modelling of food shopping behaviour of children in retail stores," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(8), pages 840-854, August.
    8. Zhang, Chuanchuan & Jia, Shen & Yang, Rudai, 2016. "Housing affordability and housing vacancy in China: The role of income inequality," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 4-14.
    9. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    10. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng, 2017. "House price to income ratio and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon forecastability," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 293-311, August.
    11. Paul Gower & Florian Meier & Karl Shutes, 2019. "Regulator Communication and Market Confidence in Difficult Times: Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 7(4), pages 1-24.
    12. Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
    13. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2010. "Reasonable people did disagree : optimism and pessimism about the U.S. housing market before the crash," Public Policy Discussion Paper 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Isaac Abunyuwah, 2020. "Partial Ordered Logit Analysis of Confidence Levels in Financial Institutions in Ghana. The Case of Asante Mampong Municipality," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, July.
    15. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Rob Alessie, 2014. "The precautionary savings motive and household savings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 164-187, January.
    16. Soosung Hwang & Youngha Cho & Jinho Shin, 2020. "The impact of UK household overconfidence in public information on house prices," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 360-389, October.
    17. Yuriy Bilan & Inna Tiutiunyk & Sergij Lyeonov & Tatiana Vasylieva, 2020. "Shadow economy and economic development: a panel cointegration and causality analysis," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 13(2), pages 173-193.
    18. Hampton, P. & Rayner, A. C., 1977. "The use of multivariate methods in economics with reference to regional analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 267-287, August.
    19. Evren Ceritoğlu, 2013. "The impact of labour income risk on household saving decisions in Turkey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 109-129, March.
    20. Utku Uygur & Oktay Tas, 2014. "The impacts of investor sentiment on different economic sectors: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 14(4), pages 236-241, December.
    21. Felix Roth, 2022. "The Effect of the Financial Crisis on Systemic Trust," Contributions to Economics, in: Public Support for the Euro, chapter 0, pages 219-229, Springer.
    22. Skomp, Stephen E & Cronan, Timothy P & Seaver, William L, 1986. "On Application of the Rank Transformation Discrimination Method to Financial Problems," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 473-483, November.
    23. Hamid Waqas & Rohani Md-Rus, 2018. "Predicting financial distress: Importance of accounting and firm-specific market variables for Pakistan’s listed firms," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1545739-154, January.
    24. Michael D. Edelstein & Robert H. Edelstein, 2020. "Crashes, Contagion, Cygnus, and Complexities: Global Economic Crises and Real Estate," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 23(3), pages 937-962.
    25. Sheila C. Dow, 2011. "Cognition, market sentiment and financial instability," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(2), pages 233-249.
    26. Mateja Kos Koklic & Irena Vida, 2009. "A Strategic Household Purchase: Consumer House Buying Behavior," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 7(1), pages 75-96.
    27. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
    28. Huck, Nicolas & Mavoori, Hareesh & Mesly, Olivier, 2020. "The rationality of irrationality in times of financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 337-350.
    29. Carin van der Cruijsen & Jakob de Haan & Ria Roerink, 2021. "Financial knowledge and trust in financial institutions," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 680-714, June.
    30. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    31. Elzbieta Bukalska, 2020. "Are companies managed by overconfident CEO financially constraint? Investment–cash flow sensitivity approach," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 107-131, March.
    32. Jyoti Vohra & Pavleen Soni, 2015. "Logit modelling of food shopping behaviour of children in retail stores," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(8), pages 840-854, August.
    33. Maria Kovacova & Tomas Kliestik, 2017. "Logit and Probit application for the prediction of bankruptcy in Slovak companies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(4), pages 775-791, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:3:p:874-898 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    3. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.
    4. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3 - Part ), pages 874-898.
    5. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    6. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    7. Alessandro Bitetto & Paola Cerchiello & Charilaos Mertzanis, 2021. "A data-driven approach to measuring financial soundness throughout the world," DEM Working Papers Series 199, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
    9. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    10. Wei Hu & Shanggang Yin & Haibo Gong, 2022. "Spatial–Temporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of China’s Urban Housing Price-to-Income Ratio," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
    11. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
    12. Apostolakis, Georgios N. & Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2019. "Financial stress and asymmetric shocks transmission within the Eurozone. How fragile is the common monetary policy?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Malgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Pawel Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2017. "Role of Foreign Capital in Stability of Banking Sectors in CESEE Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(6), pages 492-511, October.
    15. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.
    17. George N. Apostolakis & Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2023. "Macro‐financial effects of monetary policy easing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 715-738, April.
    18. Ozcelebi, Oguzhan, 2020. "Assessing the impacts of financial stress index of developed countries on the exchange market pressure index of emerging countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-302.
    19. Nadri , Kamran & Ebrahimi , Sajad & Fadaie , Abbas, 2018. "An Investigation of Co-Movement of Financial Stability Index with Macro-Prudential Indicator through Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(2), pages 125-151, April.
    20. Nadri , Kamran & Ebrahimi , Sajad & Fadaie , Abbas, 2018. "Assessment of Financial Stability in the Banking Sector in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(4), pages 501-523, October.
    21. Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Peijin, 2021. "Does Bitcoin or gold react to financial stress alike? Evidence from the U.S. and China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 629-648.
    22. Lee, Seung Jung & Posenau, Kelly E. & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2020. "The anatomy of financial vulnerabilities and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    23. Irfan Nurfalah & Aam Slamet Rusydiana & Nisful Laila & Eko Fajar Cahyono, 2018. "Early Warning to Banking Crises in the Dual Financial System in Indonesia: The Markov Switching Approach التحذير المبكر من الأزمات المصرفية في النظام المالي المزدوج في إندونيسيا: مقاربة ماركوف للتحويل," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 31(2), pages 133-156, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trust crisis; financial sector; real estate market; behavioral approach; real house price index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:711-740. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam P. Balcerzak The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Adam P. Balcerzak to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgtopl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.