Stress accumulation and earthquake activity on the Great Sumatran Fault, Indonesia

The seismically active Sumatra subduction zone has generated some of the largest earthquakes in the instrumental record, and both historical accounts and paleogeodetic coral studies suggest these were large enough to transfer stress to the surrounding region, including the Great Sumatran Fault (GSF). Therefore, evaluating the stress transfer from these large subduction earthquakes could delineate segments of elevated stress along the GSF where large earthquakes may potentially occur. In this study, we investigated eight megathrust earthquakes from 1797 to 2010 and resolved the accumulated Coulomb stress changes onto 18 segments along the GSF. Additionally, we also estimated the rate of tectonic stress on the GSF segments which experienced large earthquakes. We considered two cases, with: (1) no forearc sliver movement, and (2) the forearc sliver movement suggested by recent studies. Based on the historical stress changes of large earthquakes and the increase in tectonic stress rate, we analyzed the time evolution of stress changes on the GSF. The Coulomb stress changes on the GSF due to megathrust earthquakes between 1797 and 1907 increased the Coulomb stress mainly on the southern part of GSF, which was followed by four major GSF events during 1890–1943. The estimation of tectonic stress rates using case (1) produces a low rate of stress accumulation and long recurrence intervals, which would imply that megathrust earthquakes play an important role in promoting the occurrence of GSF earthquakes. When implementing the arc-parallel sliver movement of case (2), the tectonic stress rates are much higher than case (1), with an observed slip rate of 15–16 mm/yr at the GSF consistent with a recurrence interval for full-segment rupture of 100–200 years. The case (2) result suggests that the occurrence of GSF earthquakes is dominantly controlled by the rapid arc-parallel forearc sliver motion. Furthermore, the analysis of the evolution of stress changes with time shows that some segments such as Tripa (North and South), Angkola, Musi and Manna, which have experienced full-segment rupture and are therefore likely locked, appear to have returned to stress levels similar to those prior to previous historical events, suggesting elevated earthquake hazard along these GSF segments.