IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v73y2014i3p1817-1842.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting seismicity rates in western Turkey as inferred from earthquake catalog and stressing history

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos Leptokaropoulos
  • Eleftheria Papadimitriou
  • Beata Orlecka-Sikora
  • Vasileios Karakostas

Abstract

The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, which correspond to areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and reference seismicity rates are individually calculated for each subset. The forecasting periods are selected to be the inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong (M ≥ 5.8) earthquakes. The Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip are considered, along with the constant stressing rate to alter the rates of earthquake production. These rates are expressed by a probability density function and smoothed over the study area with different degrees of smoothing. The influence of the rate/state parameters in the model efficiency is explored by evaluating the Pearson linear correlation coefficient between simulated and observed earthquake occurrence rates along with its 95 % confidence limits. Application of different parameter values is attempted for the sensitivity of the calculated seismicity rates and their fit to the real data to be tested. Despite the ambiguities and the difficulties involved in the experimental parameter value determination, the results demonstrate that the present formulation and the available datasets are sufficient enough to contribute to seismic hazard assessment starting from a point such far back in time. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Leptokaropoulos & Eleftheria Papadimitriou & Beata Orlecka-Sikora & Vasileios Karakostas, 2014. "Forecasting seismicity rates in western Turkey as inferred from earthquake catalog and stressing history," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1817-1842, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:73:y:2014:i:3:p:1817-1842
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1181-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1181-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-014-1181-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ross S. Stein, 1999. "The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence," Nature, Nature, vol. 402(6762), pages 605-609, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Votsi, I. & Limnios, N. & Tsaklidis, G. & Papadimitriou, E., 2013. "Hidden Markov models revealing the stress field underlying the earthquake generation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(13), pages 2868-2885.
    2. Ferreira, D.S.R. & Ribeiro, J. & Oliveira, P.S.L. & Pimenta, A.R. & Freitas, R.P. & Dutra, R.S. & Papa, A.R.R. & Mendes, J.F.F., 2022. "Spatiotemporal analysis of earthquake occurrence in synthetic and worldwide data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    3. Irene Votsi & Nikolaos Limnios & George Tsaklidis & Eleftheria Papadimitriou, 2012. "Estimation of the Expected Number of Earthquake Occurrences Based on Semi-Markov Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 685-703, September.
    4. Xiuhong Zheng & Qihua Zhao & Sheqin Peng & Longke Wu & Yanghao Dou & Kuangyu Chen, 2024. "Analysis of Failure Mechanism of Medium-Steep Bedding Rock Slopes under Seismic Action," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Michael Hodge & Juliet Biggs & Katsuichiro Goda & Willy Aspinall, 2015. "Assessing infrequent large earthquakes using geomorphology and geodesy: the Malawi Rift," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1781-1806, April.
    6. Shanshan Liang & Guangwei Zhang & Zhiguo Xu & Jie Liu & Hongwei Li & Jianyu Shi & Yuanze Zhou, 2022. "Aftershocks triggering in a conjugate normal fault zone: a case study of the 2020 MW 5.7 Utah earthquake sequence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 1059-1078, October.
    7. G. Babayev & A. Tibaldi & F. Bonali & F. Kadirov, 2014. "Evaluation of earthquake-induced strain in promoting mud eruptions: the case of Shamakhi–Gobustan–Absheron areas, Azerbaijan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 789-808, June.
    8. Chengli Liu & Thorne Lay & Rongjiang Wang & Tuncay Taymaz & Zujun Xie & Xiong Xiong & Tahir Serkan Irmak & Metin Kahraman & Ceyhun Erman, 2023. "Complex multi-fault rupture and triggering during the 2023 earthquake doublet in southeastern Türkiye," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. B. Rastogi & Sandeep Aggrawal & Nagabhushan Rao & Pallabee Choudhury, 2013. "Triggered/migrated seismicity due to the 2001 M w 7.7 Bhuj earthquake, Western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(2), pages 1085-1107, January.
    10. Huai-zhong Yu & Jia Cheng & Qing-yong Zhu & Yong-ge Wan, 2011. "Critical sensitivity of load/unload response ratio and stress accumulation before large earthquakes: example of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 251-267, July.
    11. Bo Shao & Guiting Hou & Jun Shen, 2021. "Inter-episodes earthquake migration in the Bohai-Zhangjiakou Fault Zone, North China: Insights from numerical modeling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-16, May.
    12. Muhammad Taufiq Rafie & David P. Sahara & Phil R. Cummins & Wahyu Triyoso & Sri Widiyantoro, 2023. "Stress accumulation and earthquake activity on the Great Sumatran Fault, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3401-3425, April.
    13. Habtemicael, Semere & SenGupta, Indranil, 2014. "Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes for geophysical data analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 399(C), pages 147-156.
    14. Hongyu Yu & Rebecca M. Harrington & Honn Kao & Yajing Liu & Bei Wang, 2021. "Fluid-injection-induced earthquakes characterized by hybrid-frequency waveforms manifest the transition from aseismic to seismic slip," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Lingbin Meng & Jing Zheng & Ruizhao Yang & Suping Peng & Yuan Sun & Jingyu Xie & Dewei Li, 2023. "Microseismic Monitoring Technology Developments and Prospects in CCUS Injection Engineering," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Bilal Saif & Mohammad Tahir & Amir Sultan & Muhammad Tahir Iqbal & Talat Iqbal & Muhammad Ali Shah & Samia Gurmani, 2022. "Triggering mechanisms of Gayari avalanche, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2361-2383, July.
    17. Sanjay K. Prajapati & O. P. Mishra, 2021. "Co-seismic deformation and slip distribution of 5 April 2017 Mashhad, Iran earthquake using InSAR sentinel-1A image: implication to source characterization and future seismogenesis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 3039-3057, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:73:y:2014:i:3:p:1817-1842. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.