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The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence

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  • Ross S. Stein

    (US Geological Survey)

Abstract

An earthquake alters the shear and normal stress on surrounding faults. New evidence strengthens the hypothesis that such small, sudden stress changes cause large changes in seismicity rate. Rates climb where the stress increases (aftershocks) and fall where the stress drops. Both increases and decreases in seismicity rate are followed by a time-dependent recovery. When stress change is translated into probability change, seismic hazard is seen to be strongly influenced by earthquake interaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross S. Stein, 1999. "The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence," Nature, Nature, vol. 402(6762), pages 605-609, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:402:y:1999:i:6762:d:10.1038_45144
    DOI: 10.1038/45144
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    Cited by:

    1. Votsi, I. & Limnios, N. & Tsaklidis, G. & Papadimitriou, E., 2013. "Hidden Markov models revealing the stress field underlying the earthquake generation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(13), pages 2868-2885.
    2. Bo Shao & Guiting Hou & Jun Shen, 2021. "Inter-episodes earthquake migration in the Bohai-Zhangjiakou Fault Zone, North China: Insights from numerical modeling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Irene Votsi & Nikolaos Limnios & George Tsaklidis & Eleftheria Papadimitriou, 2012. "Estimation of the Expected Number of Earthquake Occurrences Based on Semi-Markov Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 685-703, September.
    4. G. Babayev & A. Tibaldi & F. Bonali & F. Kadirov, 2014. "Evaluation of earthquake-induced strain in promoting mud eruptions: the case of Shamakhi–Gobustan–Absheron areas, Azerbaijan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 789-808, June.
    5. Ferreira, D.S.R. & Ribeiro, J. & Oliveira, P.S.L. & Pimenta, A.R. & Freitas, R.P. & Dutra, R.S. & Papa, A.R.R. & Mendes, J.F.F., 2022. "Spatiotemporal analysis of earthquake occurrence in synthetic and worldwide data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    6. Andrea Billi & Fabio Corbi & Marco Cuffaro & Barbara Orecchio & Mimmo Palano & Debora Presti & Cristina Totaro, 2024. "Seismic slip channeling along the East Anatolian Fault illuminates long-term supercycle behavior," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Lingbin Meng & Jing Zheng & Ruizhao Yang & Suping Peng & Yuan Sun & Jingyu Xie & Dewei Li, 2023. "Microseismic Monitoring Technology Developments and Prospects in CCUS Injection Engineering," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-21, March.
    8. B. Rastogi & Sandeep Aggrawal & Nagabhushan Rao & Pallabee Choudhury, 2013. "Triggered/migrated seismicity due to the 2001 M w 7.7 Bhuj earthquake, Western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(2), pages 1085-1107, January.
    9. Michael Hodge & Juliet Biggs & Katsuichiro Goda & Willy Aspinall, 2015. "Assessing infrequent large earthquakes using geomorphology and geodesy: the Malawi Rift," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1781-1806, April.
    10. Xiuhong Zheng & Qihua Zhao & Sheqin Peng & Longke Wu & Yanghao Dou & Kuangyu Chen, 2024. "Analysis of Failure Mechanism of Medium-Steep Bedding Rock Slopes under Seismic Action," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-21, September.
    11. Huai-zhong Yu & Jia Cheng & Qing-yong Zhu & Yong-ge Wan, 2011. "Critical sensitivity of load/unload response ratio and stress accumulation before large earthquakes: example of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 251-267, July.
    12. Shanshan Liang & Guangwei Zhang & Zhiguo Xu & Jie Liu & Hongwei Li & Jianyu Shi & Yuanze Zhou, 2022. "Aftershocks triggering in a conjugate normal fault zone: a case study of the 2020 MW 5.7 Utah earthquake sequence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 1059-1078, October.
    13. Sanjay K. Prajapati & O. P. Mishra, 2021. "Co-seismic deformation and slip distribution of 5 April 2017 Mashhad, Iran earthquake using InSAR sentinel-1A image: implication to source characterization and future seismogenesis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 3039-3057, February.
    14. Chengli Liu & Thorne Lay & Rongjiang Wang & Tuncay Taymaz & Zujun Xie & Xiong Xiong & Tahir Serkan Irmak & Metin Kahraman & Ceyhun Erman, 2023. "Complex multi-fault rupture and triggering during the 2023 earthquake doublet in southeastern Türkiye," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Habtemicael, Semere & SenGupta, Indranil, 2014. "Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes for geophysical data analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 399(C), pages 147-156.
    16. Konstantinos Leptokaropoulos & Eleftheria Papadimitriou & Beata Orlecka-Sikora & Vasileios Karakostas, 2014. "Forecasting seismicity rates in western Turkey as inferred from earthquake catalog and stressing history," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1817-1842, September.
    17. Bilal Saif & Mohammad Tahir & Amir Sultan & Muhammad Tahir Iqbal & Talat Iqbal & Muhammad Ali Shah & Samia Gurmani, 2022. "Triggering mechanisms of Gayari avalanche, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2361-2383, July.
    18. Hongyu Yu & Rebecca M. Harrington & Honn Kao & Yajing Liu & Bei Wang, 2021. "Fluid-injection-induced earthquakes characterized by hybrid-frequency waveforms manifest the transition from aseismic to seismic slip," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Muhammad Taufiq Rafie & David P. Sahara & Phil R. Cummins & Wahyu Triyoso & Sri Widiyantoro, 2023. "Stress accumulation and earthquake activity on the Great Sumatran Fault, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3401-3425, April.

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