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Are We Underestimating Food Insecurity? Partial Identification with a Bayesian 4-Parameter IRT Model

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  • Christian A. Gregory

    (Economic Research Service)

Abstract

This paper addresses measurement error in food security in the USA. In particular, it uses a Bayesian 4-parameter IRT model to look at the likelihood of over- or under-reporting of the conditions that comprise the food security module (FSM), the data collection administered in many US surveys to assess and monitor food insecurity. While this model’s parameters are only partially identified, we learn about the likely values of these parameters by using a Bayesian framework. My results suggest significant under-reporting of more severe food security items, particularly those in the child module. I find no evidence of over-reporting of food hardships. I show that, under conservative assumptions, this model predicts food insecurity prevalence between 1 and 3 percentage points higher than current estimates, or roughly 4 to 15 percent of prevalence, for the years 2007–2015. Results suggest much larger increases—on the order of 50 percent of prevalence—for very low food security among households that were screened into the food security module.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian A. Gregory, 2020. "Are We Underestimating Food Insecurity? Partial Identification with a Bayesian 4-Parameter IRT Model," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 37(3), pages 632-655, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jclass:v:37:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s00357-019-09344-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00357-019-09344-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Rabbitt, Matthew P. & Hales, Laura J. & Burke, Michael P. & Coleman-Jensen, Alisha, 2023. "Household Food Security in the United States in 2022," Economic Research Report 338945, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Coleman-Jensen, Alisha & Rabbitt, Matthew & Gregory, Christian & Singh, Anita, 2022. "Household Food Security in the United States in 2021," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Economic ), September.
    3. Coleman-Jensen, Alisha & Rabbitt, Matthew & Gregory, Christian & Singh, Anita, 2022. "Household Food Security in the United States in 2021," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Economic ), September.
    4. Justin L. Kern, 2024. "Extending an Identified Four-Parameter IRT Model: The Confirmatory Set-4PNO Model," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 49(3), pages 368-402, June.
    5. Coleman-Jensen, Alisha & Rabbitt, Matthew P & Gregory, Christian A & Singh, Anita, 2021. "Household Food Security in the United States in 2020," Economic Research Report 327186, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Rabbitt, Matthew P. & Reed-Jones, Madeline & Hales, Laura J. & Burke, Michael P., 2024. "Household Food Security in the United States in 2023," Economic Research Report 344963, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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