IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/izamig/v8y2018i1d10.1186_s40176-018-0126-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Kelvin K. C. Seah

    (National University of Singapore, 1 Arts Link
    IZA)

Abstract

ᅟ This paper investigates whether immigration shocks have a causal effect on native fertility patterns. It uses a natural experiment, exploiting the large, unexpected and localised immigration of Cuban nationals to the Miami area in the USA in 1980 to examine the fertility consequences for non-Cuban Miami women. Using a synthetic control estimator and an extended individual difference-in-differences analysis, the results from this study indicate that the immigration shock had an overall negative, though short-lived, impact on the fertility of Miami women. In addition, fertility effects are found to vary by homeownership: While the immigration shock had a considerable negative impact on the fertility of women living in rented homes, it had no effect on those living in owned homes. This differential impact was likely due to the rise in local housing rents accompanying immigration, making childbearing less affordable for those living in rented homes. JEL Classification: J61, J13

Suggested Citation

  • Kelvin K. C. Seah, 2018. "The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:8:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40176-018-0126-6
    DOI: 10.1186/s40176-018-0126-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40176-018-0126-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40176-018-0126-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Card, 1990. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 43(2), pages 245-257, January.
    2. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Jeffrey Nugent, 2011. "Real options and demographic decisions: empirical evidence from East and West Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2739-2749.
    3. Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    4. George J. Borjas & Joan Monras, 2017. "The labour market consequences of refugee supply shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 361-413.
    5. Delia Furtado & Heinrich Hock, 2010. "Low Skilled Immigration and Work-Fertility Tradeoffs among High Skilled US Natives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 224-228, May.
    6. Delia Furtado, 2016. "Fertility Responses of High-Skilled Native Women to Immigrant Inflows," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 27-53, February.
    7. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
    8. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    9. Giovanni Peri & Vasil Yasenov, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of a Refugee Wave: Synthetic Control Method Meets the Mariel Boatlift," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 267-309.
    10. Michael Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2017. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results - Working Paper 455," Working Papers 455, Center for Global Development, revised 19 Jul 2017.
    11. Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Labor Market Competition And Individual Preferences Over Immigration Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 133-145, February.
    12. Albert Saiz, 2003. "Room in the Kitchen for the Melting Pot: Immigration and Rental Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 502-521, August.
    13. Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2010. "The Effect Of House Price On Fertility: Evidence From Hong Kong," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 635-650, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. R.D. Mariani & F. C. Rosati, 2022. "Immigrant supply of marketable child care and native fertility in Italy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 503-533, December.
    2. Borjas, George J. & Edo, Anthony, 2021. "Gender, Selection into Employment, and the Wage Impact of Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 14261, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Lili Yao & J. Brandon Bolen & Claudia R. Williamson, 2022. "Are economic arguments against immigration missing the boat? The fiscal effects of the Mariel Boatlift," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(2), pages 305-325, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haaland, Ingar & Roth, Christopher, 2020. "Labor market concerns and support for immigration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Jason Anastasopoulos & George J. Borjas & Gavin G. Cook & Michael Lachanski, 2018. "Job Vacancies, the Beveridge Curve, and Supply Shocks: The Frequency and Content of Help-Wanted Ads in Pre- and Post-Mariel Miami," NBER Working Papers 24580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fallah, Belal & Krafft, Caroline & Wahba, Jackline, 2019. "The impact of refugees on employment and wages in Jordan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 203-216.
    5. Billy, Alexander & Packard, Michael, 2022. "Crime and the Mariel Boatlift," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Bahar, Dany & Ibáñez, Ana María & Rozo, Sandra V., 2021. "Give me your tired and your poor: Impact of a large-scale amnesty program for undocumented refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    10. Anthony Edo, 2017. "The Impact of Immigration on Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Algerian Independence War," CESifo Working Paper Series 6595, CESifo.
    11. Lara Bohnet & Susana Peralta & Joao Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "Cousins from overseas: the labour market impact of half a million Portuguese repatriates," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2114, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    12. Sandra Rozo & Micaela Sviastchi, 2018. "Are Refugees a Burden? Impacts of Refugee Inflows on Hosts Consumption Expenditures," Working Papers 2018-3, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    13. Nelly Elmallakh & Jackline Wahba, 2023. "Syrian Refugees and the Migration Dynamics of Jordanians: Moving In or Moving Out?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1283-1330.
    14. Mask Joshua, 2020. "Consequences of immigrating during a recession: Evidence from the US Refugee Resettlement program," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, January.
    15. Nicolás Ajzenman & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Sergei Guriev, 2020. "Exposure to Transit Migration, Public Attitudes and Entrepreneurship," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2020_02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    16. Mario Scharfbillig & Marco Weissler, 2019. "Heterogeneous displacement effects of migrant labor supply - quasi-experimental evidence from Germany," Working Papers 1910, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    17. Jens Ruhose, 2015. "Microeconometric Analyses on Economic Consequences of Selective Migration," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 61.
    18. Tao Song & Huanan Xu, 2020. "Anywhere they go, we go: Immigration inflow's impact on co‐ethnic natives in the U.S," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(1), pages 191-215, July.
    19. Christl, Michael, 2020. "The Labour Market Effects of a Refugee Wave. A Replication Study of Peri and Yasenov (Journal of Human Resources, 2019)," International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics (IREE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 4(2020-4), pages 1-15.
    20. Antonella Bandiera & Lelys Dinarte Diaz & Sandra V. Rozo & Carlos Schmidt-Padilla & María Micaela Sviatschi & Hernan Winkler, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of Deportations: Evidence from Firm Behavior in El Salvador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1331-1358.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Fertility; Natural experiment; Synthetic control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:8:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40176-018-0126-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.