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The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment

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  • Kelvin K. C. Seah

    (National University of Singapore, 1 Arts Link
    IZA)

Abstract

ᅟ This paper investigates whether immigration shocks have a causal effect on native fertility patterns. It uses a natural experiment, exploiting the large, unexpected and localised immigration of Cuban nationals to the Miami area in the USA in 1980 to examine the fertility consequences for non-Cuban Miami women. Using a synthetic control estimator and an extended individual difference-in-differences analysis, the results from this study indicate that the immigration shock had an overall negative, though short-lived, impact on the fertility of Miami women. In addition, fertility effects are found to vary by homeownership: While the immigration shock had a considerable negative impact on the fertility of women living in rented homes, it had no effect on those living in owned homes. This differential impact was likely due to the rise in local housing rents accompanying immigration, making childbearing less affordable for those living in rented homes. JEL Classification: J61, J13

Suggested Citation

  • Kelvin K. C. Seah, 2018. "The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: evidence from a natural experiment," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:8:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40176-018-0126-6
    DOI: 10.1186/s40176-018-0126-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Borjas, George J. & Edo, Anthony, 2021. "Gender, Selection into Employment, and the Wage Impact of Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 14261, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. R.D. Mariani & F. C. Rosati, 2022. "Immigrant supply of marketable child care and native fertility in Italy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 503-533, December.
    3. Lili Yao & J. Brandon Bolen & Claudia R. Williamson, 2022. "Are economic arguments against immigration missing the boat? The fiscal effects of the Mariel Boatlift," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(2), pages 305-325, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Fertility; Natural experiment; Synthetic control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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