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Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy

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  • Campo, Francesco
  • Giunti, Sara
  • Mendola, Mariapia

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the 2014–2017 ‘Refugee Crisis’ in Italy on voting behavior and the rise of right-wing populism in national Parliamentary elections. Our analysis exploits unique administrative data on refugee reception centers across Italian municipalities and exogenous variation in refugee resettlement induced by the Dispersal Policy. We find a positive and significant effect, although small in magnitude, of the share of asylum seekers on support for radical-right anti-immigration parties, which runs in parallel with a decline in public support for center-left parties. We further examine the mechanisms underlying this shift in political preferences and provide causal evidence that anti-immigration backlash rather than being rooted in adverse economic effects is triggered by radical-right propaganda and hate-speech.

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  • Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:168:y:2024:i:c:s0014292124001557
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104826
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    Cited by:

    1. Gamalerio, Matteo & Luca, Mario & Romarri, Alessio & Viskanic, Max, 2023. "Refugee reception, extreme-right voting, and compositional amenities: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Endrich, Marek, 2022. "A gate to the world for all? The reaction of neighborhoods in Hamburg to refugee housings," ILE Working Paper Series 65, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    3. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2024. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia & Tura, Giulia, 2023. "Political Backlash to Refugee Settlement: Cultural and Economic Drivers," IZA Discussion Papers 16245, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Silvia Peracchi, 2022. "The Migration Crisis in the Local News: Evidence from the French-Italian Border," CESifo Working Paper Series 10070, CESifo.
    7. Cerqua, Augusto & Zampollo, Federico, 2021. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 876, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Allen, William L. & Ruiz, Isabel & Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2024. "Policy preferences in response to large forced migration inflows," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    9. Matteo Gamalerio & Margherita Negri, 2023. "Not welcome anymore: the effect of electoral incentives on the reception of refugees," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 901-920.
    10. Cerqua, Augusto & Zampollo, Federico, 2023. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Jérôme Gonnot & Federica lo Polito, 2023. "Cultural Transmission and Political Attitudes: Explaining Differences between Natives and Immigrants in Western Europe," Working Papers 2023-12, CEPII research center.
    12. Jäger, Julian, 2023. "Immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 76, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    13. Matteo Gamalerio & Margherita Negri, 2023. "Not welcome anymore: the effect of electoral incentives on the reception of refugees," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 901-920.
    14. Silvia Peracchi, 2023. "Migration Crisis in the Local News: Evidence from the French-Italian Border," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Refugee crisis; Voting behavior; Dispersal Policy; Propaganda;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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