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Random‐effects models for migration attractivity and retentivity: a Bayesian methodology

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  • Peter Congdon

Abstract

Summary. Several studies have proposed methods for deriving summary scores for describing the in‐migrant attractivity of areas, as well as out‐migrant push (or conversely migrant retentivity). Simple in‐migration and out‐migrant rates (migrant totals divided by populations) do not correct for spatial separation or the migration context of a particular area, namely the size and proximity of nearby urban areas with populations at risk of migrating to an area, or offering potential destinations for out‐migrants from an area. An extended random‐effects gravity model is proposed to represent the influences of attractivity and retentivity after controlling for urban structure. Whereas the existing literature is focused on fixed effects modelling (and classical estimation), the focus in this paper is on a Bayesian hierarchical random‐effects approach that links estimates of pull‐and‐push scores across areas (i.e. allows scores to be spatially correlated) and also allows correlation between attractivity and retentivity within areas. As demonstrated by a case‐study of English local authorities, a random‐effects model may have a lower effective model dimension than a fixed effects model.

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  • Peter Congdon, 2010. "Random‐effects models for migration attractivity and retentivity: a Bayesian methodology," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 755-774, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:173:y:2010:i:4:p:755-774
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00625.x
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    3. Md. Mohsin Reza & Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & M. Rezaul Islam, 2019. "Economic and Social Well-Being of Asian Labour Migrants: A Literature Review," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 1245-1264, February.
    4. Toshihide Mizuno & Mitsuhiro Fujimoto, 2022. "Directional dummies in gravity models: application to Japanese inter-municipal migration by age-sex group," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 161-171, August.
    5. Elisa Panzera & Thomas de Graaff & Henri L.F. de Groot, 2021. "European cultural heritage and tourism flows: The magnetic role of superstar World Heritage Sites," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 101-122, February.
    6. Buyani Nkabinde & Lawrence Mpele Lekhanya & Nirmala Dorasamy, 2018. "The Rural Immigration Effects on Urban Service Delivery in South Africa (SA)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 11-24.

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