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Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams

Author

Listed:
  • Fertig, Michael

    (ISG, Cologne)

  • Schmidt, Christoph M.

    (RWI)

Abstract

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans–Werner Sinn, 2002. "EU Enlargement and the Future of the Welfare State," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 104-115, February.
    2. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1997. "Immigrant performance in Germany: Labor earnings of ethnic German migrants and foreign guest-workers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 379-397.
    3. Glytsos, Nicholas & Katseli, Louka Tarsitsa, 1986. "Theoretical and Empirical Determinants of International Labour Mobility: A Greek-German Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sinn Hans-Werner, 2000. "EU Enlargement, Migration, and Lessons from German Unification," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 299-314, August.
    5. Ashenfelter, Orley & Card, David, 1985. "Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 648-660, November.
    6. Dustmann, Christian & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "The Wage Performance of Immigrant Women: Full-Time Jobs, Part-Time Jobs, and the Role of Selection," IZA Discussion Papers 233, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "Knowing What Works: The Case for Rigorous Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 77, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Matyas,Laszlo (ed.), 1999. "Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521669672, October.
    10. Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
    11. Matyas,Laszlo (ed.), 1999. "Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521660136, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GMM; Variance Components; Demographic Structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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