IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v177y2024i12d10.1007_s10584-024-03830-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Sofia Fuente

    (Dundalk Institute of Technology)

  • Eleanor Jennings

    (Dundalk Institute of Technology)

  • John D. Lenters

    (University of Michigan Biological Station)

  • Piet Verburg

    (School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington)

  • Georgiy Kirillin

    (Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries)

  • Tom Shatwell

    (Ostwestfalen-Lippe University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Department of Environmental Engineering and Applied Computer Science)

  • Raoul-Marie Couture

    (Université Laval)

  • Marianne Côté

    (Université Laval)

  • C. Love Råman Vinnå

    (Surface Waters - Research and Management)

  • R. Iestyn Woolway

    (Bangor University)

Abstract

Lakes represent a vital source of freshwater, accounting for 87% of the Earth’s accessible surface freshwater resources and providing a range of ecosystem services, including water for human consumption. As climate change continues to unfold, understanding the potential evaporative water losses from lakes becomes crucial for effective water management strategies. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change on the evaporation rates of 23 European lakes and reservoirs of varying size during the warm season (July–September). To assess the evaporation trends, we employ a 12-member ensemble of model projections, utilizing three one-dimensional process-based lake models. These lake models were driven by bias-corrected climate simulations from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering both a historical (1970–2005) and future (2006–2099) period. Our findings reveal a consistent projection of increased warm-season evaporation across all lakes this century, though the magnitude varies depending on specific factors. By the end of this century (2070–2099), we estimate a 21%, 30% and 42% average increase in evaporation rates in the studied European lakes under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Moreover, future projections of the relationship between precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) in the studied lakes, suggest that P-E will decrease this century, likely leading to a deficit in the availability of surface water. The projected increases in evaporation rates underscore the significance of adapting strategic management approaches for European lakes to cope with the far-reaching consequences of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofia Fuente & Eleanor Jennings & John D. Lenters & Piet Verburg & Georgiy Kirillin & Tom Shatwell & Raoul-Marie Couture & Marianne Côté & C. Love Råman Vinnå & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2024. "Increasing warm-season evaporation rates across European lakes under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(12), pages 1-18, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03830-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-024-03830-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03830-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.