IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-33495-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Huang

    (Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Sun-Seon Lee

    (Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Keith B. Rodgers

    (Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Ryohei Yamaguchi

    (Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University
    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

  • Eui-Seok Chung

    (Korea Polar Research Institute)

Abstract

Seasonal ice in lakes plays an important role for local communities and lake ecosystems. Here we use Large Ensemble simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2, which includes a lake simulator, to quantify the response of lake ice to greenhouse warming and to determine emergence patterns of anthropogenic lake ice loss. Our model simulations show that the average duration of ice coverage and maximum ice thickness are projected to decrease over the next 80 years by 38 days and 0.23 m, respectively. In the Canadian Arctic, lake ice loss is accelerated by the cold-season polar amplification. Lake ice on the Tibetan Plateau decreases rapidly due to a combination of strong insolation forcing and ice-albedo feedbacks. Comparing the anthropogenic signal with natural variability represented by the Large Ensemble, we find that lake ecosystems in these regions may be exposed to no-analogue ice coverage within the next 4-5 decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Huang & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Keith B. Rodgers & Ryohei Yamaguchi & Eui-Seok Chung, 2022. "Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33495-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33495-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33495-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-33495-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Deser & F. Lehner & K. B. Rodgers & T. Ault & T. L. Delworth & P. N. DiNezio & A. Fiore & C. Frankignoul & J. C. Fyfe & D. E. Horton & J. E. Kay & R. Knutti & N. S. Lovenduski & J. Marotzke & K. A., 2020. "Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(4), pages 277-286, April.
    2. Igor Lehnherr & Vincent L. St. Louis & Martin Sharp & Alex S. Gardner & John P. Smol & Sherry L. Schiff & Derek C. G. Muir & Colleen A. Mortimer & Neil Michelutti & Charles Tarnocai & Kyra A. St. Pier, 2018. "The world’s largest High Arctic lake responds rapidly to climate warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. R. Iestyn Woolway & Sapna Sharma & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & Andrey Debolskiy & Malgorzata Golub & Daniel Mercado-Bettín & Marjorie Perroud & Victor Stepanenko & Zeli Tan & Luke Grant & Robert Ladwig & Jo, 2021. "Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Jeremy R. Brammer & Jason Samson & Murray M. Humphries, 2015. "Declining availability of outdoor skating in Canada," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 2-4, January.
    5. Sapna Sharma & Kevin Blagrave & John J. Magnuson & Catherine M. O’Reilly & Samantha Oliver & Ryan D. Batt & Madeline R. Magee & Dietmar Straile & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & Luke Winslow & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2019. "Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 227-231, March.
    6. C. Deser & F. Lehner & K. B. Rodgers & T. Ault & T. L. Delworth & P. N. DiNezio & A. Fiore & C. Frankignoul & J. C. Fyfe & D. E. Horton & J. E. Kay & R. Knutti & N. S. Lovenduski & J. Marotzke & K. A., 2020. "Publisher Correction: Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 791-791, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shijie Zhou & Ping Huang & Lin Wang & Kaiming Hu & Gang Huang & Peng Hu, 2024. "Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Xuezhi Tan & Xinxin Wu & Zeqin Huang & Jianyu Fu & Xuejin Tan & Simin Deng & Yaxin Liu & Thian Yew Gan & Bingjun Liu, 2023. "Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Jisesh Sethunadh & F. W. Letson & R. J. Barthelmie & S. C. Pryor, 2023. "Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2807-2834, July.
    5. Mingna Wu & Tianjun Zhou & Chao Li & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Bo Wu & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang, 2021. "A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Mi-Kyung Sung & Soon-Il An & Jongsoo Shin & Jae-Heung Park & Young-Min Yang & Hyo-Jeong Kim & Minhee Chang, 2023. "Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Xu Lian & Sujong Jeong & Chang-Eui Park & Hao Xu & Laurent Z. X. Li & Tao Wang & Pierre Gentine & Josep Peñuelas & Shilong Piao, 2022. "Biophysical impacts of northern vegetation changes on seasonal warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Qinxue Gu & Melissa Gervais & Gokhan Danabasoglu & Who M. Kim & Frederic Castruccio & Elizabeth Maroon & Shang-Ping Xie, 2024. "Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Xinyu Li & Shushi Peng & Yi Xi & R. Iestyn Woolway & Gang Liu, 2022. "Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. B. H. Samset & C. Zhou & J. S. Fuglestvedt & M. T. Lund & J. Marotzke & M. D. Zelinka, 2022. "Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Nico, Gianluigi & Azzarri, Carlo, 2022. "Weather variability and extreme shocks in Africa: Are female or male farmers more affected?," IFPRI discussion papers 2115, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Dirk Olonscheck & Andrew P. Schurer & Lucie Lücke & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2021. "Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Grasiele Romanzini-Bezerra & Amanda C. Maycock, 2024. "Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to stringent climate mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, December.
    16. Karen A. McKinnon, 2022. "Discussion on “A combined estimate of global temperature”," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), May.
    17. Yiqun Tian & Shineng Hu & Clara Deser, 2023. "Critical role of biomass burning aerosols in enhanced historical Indian Ocean warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    18. Samuel Lüthi & Christopher Fairless & Erich M. Fischer & Noah Scovronick & Armstrong & Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho & Yue Leon Guo & Yuming Guo & Yasushi Honda & Veronika Huber & Jan K, 2023. "Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Friedrich A. Burger & Jens Terhaar & Thomas L. Frölicher, 2022. "Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Wenxia Zhang & Kalli Furtado & Tianjun Zhou & Peili Wu & Xiaolong Chen, 2022. "Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33495-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.