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A Modelling Approach to Forecast the Effect of Climate Change on the Tagus-Segura Interbasin Water Transfer

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Senent-Aparicio

    (Catholic University of Murcia (UCAM))

  • Adrián López-Ballesteros

    (Catholic University of Murcia (UCAM))

  • Francisco Cabezas

    (Euro-Mediterranean Water Institute
    University of Murcia)

  • Julio Pérez-Sánchez

    (Catholic University of Murcia (UCAM))

  • Eugenio Molina-Navarro

    (University of Alcalá)

Abstract

This study was conducted in the upper Tagus River basin (UTRB), whose available water resources are partially transferred from the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs after local needs satisfaction to the Segura River basin using the Tagus-Segura water transfer (TSWT), the largest hydraulic infrastructure in Spain. This study evaluates the climate change impact on the TSWT by considering future evaporation rates and bathymetric changes in the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs. The findings of this study indicate a consistent decline in precipitation and an increase in temperature and evaporation under all climate impact scenarios. Consequently, inflows to the reservoirs will decline by 19% (RCP 4.5) and 53% (RCP 8.5) for 2070–2099, which could reduce water volumes that could be transferred to the Segura basin by more than 60%. The simulation of the TSWT operation rules, taking into account the impact of future evaporation and bathymetric changes, demonstrates an additional increase in reductions of water transfer of around 4%, which reveals the need to consider these effects in hydrological planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Senent-Aparicio & Adrián López-Ballesteros & Francisco Cabezas & Julio Pérez-Sánchez & Eugenio Molina-Navarro, 2021. "A Modelling Approach to Forecast the Effect of Climate Change on the Tagus-Segura Interbasin Water Transfer," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3791-3808, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02919-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02919-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Martínez-Granados & José Maestre-Valero & Javier Calatrava & Victoriano Martínez-Alvarez, 2011. "The Economic Impact of Water Evaporation Losses from Water Reservoirs in the Segura Basin, SE Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3153-3175, October.
    2. Aghapour Sabbaghi, Mohammad & Nazari, Mohammadreza & Araghinejad, Shahab & Soufizadeh, Saeid, 2020. "Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yeşim Ahi & Çiğdem Coşkun Dilcan & Daniyal Durmuş Köksal & Hüseyin Tevfik Gültaş, 2023. "Reservoir Evaporation Forecasting Based on Climate Change Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Network Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2607-2624, May.
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