IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v142y2017i3d10.1007_s10584-017-1966-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift

Author

Listed:
  • R. Iestyn Woolway

    (University of Reading)

  • Martin T. Dokulil

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Wlodzimierz Marszelewski

    (Nicolaus Copernicus University)

  • Martin Schmid

    (Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology)

  • Damien Bouffard

    (Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology)

  • Christopher J. Merchant

    (University of Reading)

Abstract

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) are sensitive to atmospheric warming and have previously been shown to respond to regional changes in the climate. Using a combination of in situ and simulated surface temperatures from 20 Central European lakes, with data spanning between 50 and ∼100 years, we investigate the long-term increase in annually averaged LSWT. We demonstrate that Central European lakes are warming most in spring and experience a seasonal variation in LSWT trends. We calculate significant LSWT warming during the past few decades and illustrate, using a sequential t test analysis of regime shifts, a substantial increase in annually averaged LSWT during the late 1980s, in response to an abrupt shift in the climate. Surface air temperature measurements from 122 meteorological stations situated throughout Central Europe demonstrate similar increases at this time. Climatic modification of LSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems. Quantifying the response of LSWT increase to large-scale and abrupt climatic shifts is essential to understand how lakes will respond in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Iestyn Woolway & Martin T. Dokulil & Wlodzimierz Marszelewski & Martin Schmid & Damien Bouffard & Christopher J. Merchant, 2017. "Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 505-520, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1966-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1966-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-1966-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-1966-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marten Scheffer & Steve Carpenter & Jonathan A. Foley & Carl Folke & Brian Walker, 2001. "Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6856), pages 591-596, October.
    2. Michael Dettinger, 2013. "Projections and downscaling of 21st century temperatures, precipitation, radiative fluxes and winds for the Southwestern US, with focus on Lake Tahoe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(1), pages 17-33, January.
    3. Martin Schmid & Stefan Hunziker & Alfred Wüest, 2014. "Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 301-315, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ptak Mariusz & Sojka Mariusz & Nowak Bogumił, 2019. "Characteristics of daily water temperature fluctuations in lake kierskie (West Poland)," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 38(3), pages 41-49, September.
    2. Martin T. Dokulil & Elvira Eyto & Stephen C. Maberly & Linda May & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2021. "Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Konstantinos Stefanidis & George Varlas & Anastasios Papadopoulos & Elias Dimitriou, 2021. "Four Decades of Surface Temperature, Precipitation, and Wind Speed Trends over Lakes of Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-14, September.
    4. R. Iestyn Woolway & Yan Tong & Lian Feng & Gang Zhao & Dieu Anh Dinh & Haoran Shi & Yunlin Zhang & Kun Shi, 2024. "Multivariate extremes in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ian Hodge & William M. Adams, 2016. "Short-Term Projects versus Adaptive Governance: Conflicting Demands in the Management of Ecological Restoration," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Jenerette, G. Darrel & Lal, Rattan, 2007. "Modeled carbon sequestration variation in a linked erosion–deposition system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 207-216.
    3. Teh, Su Yean & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Sternberg, Leonel da Silveira Lobo & Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. & Smith, Thomas J. & Koh, Hock-Lye, 2008. "A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 245-256.
    4. Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette & Mzoughi, Naoufel, 2020. "Moral judgment of environmental harm caused by a single versus multiple wrongdoers: A survey experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Kong, Xiang-Zhen & Jørgensen, Sven Erik & He, Wei & Qin, Ning & Xu, Fu-Liu, 2013. "Predicting the restoration effects by a structural dynamic approach in Lake Chaohu, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 73-85.
    6. Paul L. G. Vlek & Asia Khamzina & Hossein Azadi & Anik Bhaduri & Luna Bharati & Ademola Braimoh & Christopher Martius & Terry Sunderland & Fatemeh Taheri, 2017. "Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Sonia Kéfi & Vishwesha Guttal & William A Brock & Stephen R Carpenter & Aaron M Ellison & Valerie N Livina & David A Seekell & Marten Scheffer & Egbert H van Nes & Vasilis Dakos, 2014. "Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Duncan A. O’Brien & Smita Deb & Gideon Gal & Stephen J. Thackeray & Partha S. Dutta & Shin-ichiro S. Matsuzaki & Linda May & Christopher F. Clements, 2023. "Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Can Askan Mavi & Nicolas Quérou, 2020. "Common pool resource management and risk perceptions," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-25, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    10. Therese Lindahl & Anne-Sophie Crépin & Caroline Schill, 2016. "Potential Disasters can Turn the Tragedy into Success," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 657-676, November.
    11. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
    12. Eppink, Florian V. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2007. "Ecological theories and indicators in economic models of biodiversity loss and conservation: A critical review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2-3), pages 284-293, March.
    13. Janssen, Marco A. & Anderies, John M. & Walker, Brian H., 2004. "Robust strategies for managing rangelands with multiple stable attractors," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 140-162, January.
    14. Admiraal, Jeroen F. & Wossink, Ada & de Groot, Wouter T. & de Snoo, Geert R., 2013. "More than total economic value: How to combine economic valuation of biodiversity with ecological resilience," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 115-122.
    15. H. Klammler & P. S. C. Rao & K. Hatfield, 2018. "Modeling dynamic resilience in coupled technological-social systems subjected to stochastic disturbance regimes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 140-159, March.
    16. Tomczak, M.T. & Niiranen, S. & Hjerne, O. & Blenckner, T., 2012. "Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 123-147.
    17. Florian Wagener, 2013. "Shallow lake economics run deep: nonlinear aspects of an economic-ecological interest conflict," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 423-450, December.
    18. Bashkirtseva, Irina & Ryashko, Lev, 2017. "How environmental noise can contract and destroy a persistence zone in population models with Allee effect," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 61-68.
    19. Kevin Thellmann & Marc Cotter & Sabine Baumgartner & Anna Treydte & Georg Cadisch & Folkard Asch, 2018. "Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services of a Mountainous Watershed in Southeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    20. Rau, Anna-Lena & von Wehrden, Henrik & Abson, David J., 2018. "Temporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 122-130.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1966-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.