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Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Nico Bauer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association)

  • Steven K. Rose

    (Electric Power Research Institute)

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University
    National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
    Utrecht University)

  • John Weyant

    (Stanford University)

  • Marshall Wise

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • Yiyun Cui

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • Vassilis Daioglou

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL))

  • Matthew J. Gidden

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Etsushi Kato

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Alban Kitous

    (Joint Research Center (JRC))

  • Florian Leblanc

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement)

  • Ronald Sands

    (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service)

  • Fuminori Sano

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

  • Jessica Strefler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association)

  • Junichi Tsutsui

    (Environmental Science Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI))

  • Ruben Bibas

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement)

  • Oliver Fricko

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • David Klein

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association)

  • Atsushi Kurosawa

    (The Institute of Applied Energy)

  • Silvana Mima

    (University Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP)

  • Matteo Muratori

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL))

Abstract

We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future climate policies, availability of bioenergy technologies, and constraints on biomass supply. This paper provides a more transparent description of IAMs that span a broad range of assumptions regarding model structures, energy sectors, and bioenergy conversion chains. Without emission constraints, we find vastly different CO2 emission and bioenergy deployment patterns across models due to differences in competition with fossil fuels, the possibility to produce large-scale bio-liquids, and the flexibility of energy systems. Imposing increasingly stringent carbon budgets mostly increases bioenergy use. A diverse set of available bioenergy technology portfolios provides flexibility to allocate bioenergy to supply different final energy as well as remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). Sector and regional bioenergy allocation varies dramatically across models mainly due to bioenergy technology availability and costs, final energy patterns, and availability of alternative decarbonization options. Although much bioenergy is used in combination with CCS, BECCS is not necessarily the driver of bioenergy use. We find that the flexibility to use biomass feedstocks in different energy sub-sectors makes large-scale bioenergy deployment a robust strategy in mitigation scenarios that is surprisingly insensitive with respect to reduced technology availability. However, the achievability of stringent carbon budgets and associated carbon prices is sensitive. Constraints on biomass feedstock supply increase the carbon price less significantly than excluding BECCS because carbon removals are still realized and valued. Incremental sensitivity tests find that delayed readiness of bioenergy technologies until 2050 is more important than potentially higher investment costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Bauer & Steven K. Rose & Shinichiro Fujimori & Detlef P. Vuuren & John Weyant & Marshall Wise & Yiyun Cui & Vassilis Daioglou & Matthew J. Gidden & Etsushi Kato & Alban Kitous & Florian Leblanc &, 2020. "Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1553-1568, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2226-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2226-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Ronald D. Sands & Shellye A. Suttles, 2022. "World agricultural baseline scenarios through 2050," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 2034-2048, December.
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    5. Xin Zhao & Bryan K. Mignone & Marshall A. Wise & Haewon C. McJeon, 2024. "Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Jan Wrana & Wojciech Struzik & Bartłomiej Kwiatkowski & Piotr Gleń, 2022. "Release of Energy from Groundwater/with Reduction in CO 2 Emissions of More Than 50% from HVAC in the Extension and Revitalization of the Former Palace of the Sobieski Family in Lublin," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-11, September.
    7. Yang Qiu & Patrick Lamers & Vassilis Daioglou & Noah McQueen & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Mathijs Harmsen & Jennifer Wilcox & André Bardow & Sangwon Suh, 2022. "Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Millinger, M. & Reichenberg, L. & Hedenus, F. & Berndes, G. & Zeyen, E. & Brown, T., 2022. "Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    9. Fanny Groundstroem & Sirkku Juhola, 2021. "Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 1-48, October.
    10. Desport, Lucas & Gurgel, Angelo & Morris, Jennifer & Herzog, Howard & Chen, Yen-Heng Henry & Selosse, Sandrine & Paltsev, Sergey, 2024. "Deploying direct air capture at scale: How close to reality?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Wu, Yazhen & Deppermann, Andre & Havlík, Petr & Frank, Stefan & Ren, Ming & Zhao, Hao & Ma, Lin & Fang, Chen & Chen, Qi & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Global land-use and sustainability implications of enhanced bioenergy import of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    12. Zhou, Mingxiang & Li, Xing, 2022. "Influence of green finance and renewable energy resources over the sustainable development goal of clean energy in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Hottenroth, H. & Sutardhio, C. & Weidlich, A. & Tietze, I. & Simon, S. & Hauser, W. & Naegler, T. & Becker, L. & Buchgeister, J. & Junne, T. & Lehr, U. & Scheel, O. & Schmidt-Scheele, R. & Ulrich, P. , 2022. "Beyond climate change. Multi-attribute decision making for a sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    14. Graham, Neal T. & Gakkhar, Nikhil & Singh, Akash Deep & Evans, Meredydd & Stelmach, Tanner & Durga, Siddarth & Godara, Rakesh & Gajera, Bhautik & Wise, Marshall & Sarma, Anil K., 2022. "Integrated analysis of increased bioenergy futures in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

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