IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v123y2014i3p461-476.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise

Author

Listed:
  • Barbara Koelbl
  • Machteld Broek
  • André Faaij
  • Detlef Vuuren

Abstract

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can be a valuable CO 2 mitigation option, but what role CCS will play in the future is uncertain. In this paper we analyze the results of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) taking part in the 27th round of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) with respect to the role of CCS in long term mitigation scenarios. Specifically we look into the use of CCS as a function of time, mitigation targets, availability of renewables and its use with different fuels. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to relate model results to general and CCS specific model assumptions. The results show a wide range of cumulative capture in the 2010–2100 period (600–3050 GtCO 2 ), but the fact that no model projects less than 600 GtCO 2 indicates that CCS is considered to be important by all these models. Interestingly, CCS storage rates are often projected to be still increasing in the second half of this century. Depending on the scenario, at least six out of eight, up to all models show higher storage rates in 2100 than in 2050. CCS shares in cumulative primary energy use are in most models increasing with the stringency of the target or under conservative availability of renewables. The strong variations of CCS deployment projection rates could not be related to the reported differences in the assumptions of the models by means of a cross-model comparison in this sample. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Koelbl & Machteld Broek & André Faaij & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 461-476, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:3:p:461-476
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1050-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-1050-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-1050-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Praetorius, Barbara & Schumacher, Katja, 2009. "Greenhouse gas mitigation in a carbon constrained world: The role of carbon capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5081-5093, December.
    2. Akimoto, Keigo & Tomoda, Toshimasa & Fujii, Yasumasa & Yamaji, Kenji, 2004. "Assessment of global warming mitigation options with integrated assessment model DNE21," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 635-653, July.
    3. Ferdinand A. Gul & Judy S. L. Tsui, 2004. "Introduction and overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Governance of East Asian Corporations, chapter 1, pages 1-26, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Weyant, John P., 2004. "Introduction and overview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, July.
    5. Kurosawa, Atsushi, 2004. "Carbon concentration target and technological choice," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 675-684, July.
    6. Smekens-Ramirez Morales, Koen E. L., 2004. "Response from a MARKAL technology model to the EMF scenario assumptions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 655-674, July.
    7. Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
    8. Riahi, Keywan & Rubin, Edward S. & Taylor, Margaret R. & Schrattenholzer, Leo & Hounshell, David, 2004. "Technological learning for carbon capture and sequestration technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 539-564, July.
    9. van Vliet, Oscar & van den Broek, Machteld & Turkenburg, Wim & Faaij, André, 2011. "Combining hybrid cars and synthetic fuels with electricity generation and carbon capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 248-268, January.
    10. Loschel, Andreas, 2002. "Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 105-126, December.
    11. Jean-Charles Hourcade, Mark Jaccard, Chris Bataille, and Frederic Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-12.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    2. Strachan, Neil & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2008. "Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2947-2963, November.
    3. Bistline, John E. & Rai, Varun, 2010. "The role of carbon capture technologies in greenhouse gas emissions-reduction models: A parametric study for the U.S. power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 1177-1191, February.
    4. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gillingham, Kenneth & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008. "Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2734-2753, November.
    6. Clarke, Leon & Weyant, John & Birky, Alicia, 2006. "On the sources of technological change: Assessing the evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 579-595, November.
    7. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Kolp & Keywan Riahi & Mikiko Kainuma & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2006. "Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 137-173, September.
    8. Ekaterina Rhodes & Kira Craig & Aaron Hoyle & Madeleine McPherson, 2021. "How Do Energy-Economy Models Compare? A Survey of Model Developers and Users in Canada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-39, May.
    9. Fox, Jacob & Axsen, Jonn & Jaccard, Mark, 2017. "Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the U.S. Passenger Vehicle Sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 133-147.
    10. Andrea Herbst & Felipe Andrés Toro & Felix Reitze & Eberhard Jochem, 2012. "Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(II), pages 111-135, June.
    11. Rhodes, Ekaterina & Hoyle, Aaron & McPherson, Madeleine & Craig, Kira, 2022. "Understanding climate policy projections: A scoping review of energy-economy models in Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Donald Larson & Gunnar Breustedt, 2009. "Will Markets Direct Investments Under the Kyoto Protocol? Lessons from the Activities Implemented Jointly Pilots," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 433-456, July.
    13. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    14. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique & Barker, Terry & Riahi, Keywan & Boeters, Stefan & Chateau, Jean & Scrieciu, Serban & van Vliet, Jasper & Masui, Toshihiko & Blok, Kornelis & Blomen, Eliane , 2009. "Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5125-5139, December.
    15. Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
    16. van den Broek, Machteld & Veenendaal, Paul & Koutstaal, Paul & Turkenburg, Wim & Faaij, André, 2011. "Impact of international climate policies on CO2 capture and storage deployment: Illustrated in the Dutch energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2000-2019, April.
    17. Vallentin, Daniel, 2007. "Inducing the international diffusion of carbon capture and storage technologies in the power sector," Wuppertal Papers 162, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.
    18. Luca Gerotto & Paolo Pellizzari, 2021. "A replication of Pindyck’s willingness to pay: on the efforts required to obtain results," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(5), pages 1-25, May.
    19. Omar Shafqat & Elena Malakhtka & Nina Chrobot & Per Lundqvist, 2021. "End Use Energy Services Framework Co-Creation with Multiple Stakeholders—A Living Lab-Based Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
    20. Jeffrey C. Peters & Thomas W. Hertel, 2017. "Achieving the Clean Power Plan 2030 CO2 Target with the New Normal in Natural Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:3:p:461-476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.