Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world: The case of Europe

This analysis contributes to recent efforts to better understand the evolution of energy security in a low-carbon world. Our objective was to assess how energy security may change over the course of the century, and to what extent these changes depend on the uncertainty of the factors that drive the evolution of energy systems, including future technologies, improved energy efficiency, fossil fuel resources and markets, and economic growth. To this end, we focused on Europe and on a set of energy security indicators based on three perspectives: sovereignty, robustness and resilience. A database of scenarios allowed us to account for the large uncertainties surrounding the determinants of future energy systems. We then analyzed the way energy security indicators evolve over time, and how their trajectories vary across scenarios. We identified the indicators that vary the most between scenarios, i.e., the indicators whose future evolution is the most uncertain. For these indicators, we performed an analysis of variance to estimate the contribution of each driver to the uncertainty of the indicators. The paper shows that the European double target of significantly decreasing CO2 emissions and increasing the security of the supply of energy may be difficult to reach. Nevertheless, some levers could facilitate the transition to a low-carbon society while improving energy security, or by limiting its degradation. The results emphasize not only the importance of policies in favor of low or zero carbon technologies in power generation but also the differences in their contributions to the complete uncertainty of the indicators. Policies promoting energy efficiency also play a role but only in the resilience of TPES. These policies are thus important levers for mitigating the negative impacts of climate policies on energy security.