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Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region

Author

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  • Jurandir Zullo

    (University of Campinas)

  • Vânia Rosa Pereira

    (University of Campinas)

  • Andrea Koga-Vicente

    (University of Campinas)

Abstract

The Brazilian sugar-energy sector (SES) is facing an increasing challenge due to the worldwide expansion of biofuel consumption as a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making yield improvement and land and water availability key factors in addressing this situation. Consequently, our main aim here is to identify SES vulnerability under climate change conditions, based on the methodology used by the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risks (ZARC) program. We assessed changes of the sugarcane ZARC in light of the current and near-future climatic conditions given by eight general circulation models (GCM) of the 5th IPCC report and under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. We identified a conversion of the current climatic risk levels in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region for sugarcane in future climate change scenarios, but the spatial distribution of these changes is heterogeneous. The current expansion areas located mainly in southern Goiás and northwest of São Paulo are marked by an increase in areas of low water availability in the future, while the traditional production areas, east of São Paulo, do not present this same vulnerability. Sugarcane cultivation in the south of Goiás is already occurring based on a complementary irrigation (of about 50 mm per month from April to September) to reach a yield similar to traditional areas located in São Paulo state. The development of drought-resistant cultivars based on genetic engineering and the efficiency of the irrigation systems used on a large spatial scale and also in the long term are two key points of concern in the Brazilian context of greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The challenges for the traditional production regions are related to the production system’s ability to regulate the capacity and idleness of sugarcane mills aiming to avoid current and future competition by same raw material.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurandir Zullo & Vânia Rosa Pereira & Andrea Koga-Vicente, 2018. "Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 489-502, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:149:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2249-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2249-4
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    1. Jazmin Campos Zeballos & Zita Sebesvari & Jakob Rhyner & Markus Metz & Vinicius Bof Bufon, 2022. "Drought Risk Assessment of Sugarcane-Based Electricity Generation in the Rio dos Patos Basin, Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Gustavo V. Popin & Arthur K. B. Santos & Thiago de P. Oliveira & Plínio B. Camargo & Carlos E. P. Cerri & Marcos Siqueira-Neto, 2020. "Sugarcane straw management for bioenergy: effects of global warming on greenhouse gas emissions and soil carbon storage," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 559-577, April.

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