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Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense

Author

Listed:
  • Tony E. Wong

    (2217 EESB Pennsylvania State University)

  • Alexander M. R. Bakker

    (2217 EESB Pennsylvania State University
    Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment)

  • Klaus Keller

    (2217 EESB Pennsylvania State University
    Pennsylvania State University
    Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. Previous studies have typically been silent on two coupled questions: (i) What are probabilistic estimates of this “fast dynamic” contribution to sea-level rise? (ii) What are the implications for strategies to manage coastal flooding risks? Here, we present probabilistic hindcasts and projections of sea-level rise to 2100. The fast dynamic mechanism is approximated by a simple parameterization, designed to allow for a careful quantification of the uncertainty in its contribution to sea-level rise. We estimate that global temperature increases ranging from 1.9 to 3.1 °C coincide with fast Antarctic disintegration, and these contributions account for sea-level rise of 21–74 cm this century (5–95% range, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We use a simple cost-benefit analysis of coastal defense to demonstrate in a didactic exercise how neglecting this mechanism and associated uncertainty can (i) lead to strategies which fall sizably short of protection targets and (ii) increase the expected net costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2039-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2039-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher G. Siverd & Scott C. Hagen & Matthew V. Bilskie & DeWitt H. Braud & Robert R. Twilley, 2020. "Quantifying storm surge and risk reduction costs: a case study for Lafitte, Louisiana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 201-223, July.
    2. Thomas David Pol & Jochen Hinkel, 2019. "Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 393-411, March.
    3. Emily Ho & David V. Budescu & Valentina Bosetti & Detlef P. Vuuren & Klaus Keller, 2019. "Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 545-561, August.
    4. Christopher G. Siverd & Scott C. Hagen & Matthew V. Bilskie & DeWitt H. Braud & R. Hampton Peele & Madeline R. Foster-Martinez & Robert R. Twilley, 2019. "Coastal Louisiana landscape and storm surge evolution: 1850–2110," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 445-468, December.
    5. William D. Nordhaus, 2018. "Global Melting? The Economics of Disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet," NBER Working Papers 24640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jérémy Rohmer & Gonéri Cozannet & Jean-Charles Manceau, 2019. "Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future coastal flooding using possibility distributions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 95-109, July.
    7. Chih-Min Hsieh & Dean Chou & Tai-Wen Hsu, 2022. "Using Modified Harmonic Analysis to Estimate the Trend of Sea-Level Rise around Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Khojasteh, Danial & Chen, Shengyang & Felder, Stefan & Glamore, William & Hashemi, M. Reza & Iglesias, Gregorio, 2022. "Sea level rise changes estuarine tidal stream energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).

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