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Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

Author

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  • Fabio Marin
  • James Jones
  • Abraham Singels
  • Frederick Royce
  • Eduardo Assad
  • Giampaolo Pellegrino
  • Flávio Justino

Abstract

This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO 2 concentration [CO 2 ] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO 2 ], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t ha −1 , which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Marin & James Jones & Abraham Singels & Frederick Royce & Eduardo Assad & Giampaolo Pellegrino & Flávio Justino, 2013. "Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 227-239, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:1:p:227-239
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0561-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Knox, J.W. & Rodríguez Díaz, J.A. & Nixon, D.J. & Mkhwanazi, M., 2010. "A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 63-72, February.
    2. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
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    1. da Silva, Hérica Santos & Silva, José Rodrigo Santos & Stosic, Tatijana, 2020. "Multifractal analysis of air temperature in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    2. Santillán-Fernández, A. & Santoyo-Cortés, V.H. & García-Chávez, L.R. & Covarrubias-Gutiérrez, I. & Merino, A., 2016. "Influence of drought and irrigation on sugarcane yields in different agroecoregions in Mexico," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 126-135.
    3. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    4. Verma, Amit Kumar & Garg, Pradeep Kumar & Prasad, K.S. Hari & Dadhwal, Vinay Kumar, 2023. "Variety-specific sugarcane yield simulations and climate change impacts on sugarcane yield using DSSAT-CSM-CANEGRO model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    5. Jyoti, Bhim & Singh, Ajay Kumar, 2020. "Projected Sugarcane Yield in Different Climate Change Scenarios in Indian States: A State-Wise Panel Data Exploration," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 8(4), October.
    6. Qin, Nianxiu & Lu, Qinqin & Fu, Guobin & Wang, Junneng & Fei, Kai & Gao, Liang, 2023. "Assessing the drought impact on sugarcane yield based on crop water requirements and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Jessica Lima Viana & Jorge Luiz Moretti de Souza & Aaron Kinyu Hoshide & Ricardo Augusto de Oliveira & Daniel Carneiro de Abreu & Wininton Mendes da Silva, 2023. "Estimating Sugarcane Yield in a Subtropical Climate Using Climatic Variables and Soil Water Storage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, February.
    8. Lazaro, Lira Luz Benites & Giatti, Leandro Luiz & Bermann, Celio & Giarolla, Angelica & Ometto, Jean, 2021. "Policy and governance dynamics in the water-energy-food-land nexus of biofuels: Proposing a qualitative analysis model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Jurandir Zullo & Vânia Rosa Pereira & Andrea Koga-Vicente, 2018. "Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 489-502, August.

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