IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v146y2018i3d10.1007_s10584-017-2133-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Bryan Jones

    (Baruch College, CUNY Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Claudia Tebaldi

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Keith Oleson

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Jing Gao

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

Heat waves are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and they are projected to increase in frequency and intensity over the coming century. Exposure to heat waves is a function of the spatial distribution of physical events and the corresponding population distribution, and future exposure will be impacted by changes in both distributions. Here, we project future exposure using ensembles of climate projections that account for the urban heat island effect, for two alternative emission scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and two alternative population and urbanization (SSP3/SSP5) outcomes. We characterize exposure at the global, regional, and grid-cell level; estimate the exposure that would be avoided by mitigating future levels of climate change (to RCP4.5); and quantify the dependence of exposure on population outcomes. We find that climate change is a stronger determinant of exposure than demographic change in these scenarios, with a global reduction in exposure of over 50% under a lower emissions pathway, while a slower population growth pathway leads to roughly 30% less exposure. Exposure reduction varies at the regional level, but in almost all cases, the RCP remains more influential than the SSP. Uncertainty in outcomes is dominated by inter-annual variability in heat extremes (relative to variability across initial condition ensemble members). For some regions, this variability is large enough that a reduction in annual exposure is not guaranteed in each individual year by following the lower forcing pathway. Finally, we find that explicitly considering the urban heat island effect and separate urban and rural heat extremes and populations can substantially influence results, generally increasing projected exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2133-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weihua Dong & Zhao Liu & Hua Liao & Qiuhong Tang & Xian’en Li, 2015. "New climate and socio-economic scenarios for assessing global human health challenges due to heat risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 505-518, June.
    2. Bryan Jones & Brian C. O’Neill & Larry McDaniel & Seth McGinnis & Linda O. Mearns & Claudia Tebaldi, 2015. "Future population exposure to US heat extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 652-655, July.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    4. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    5. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    6. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    7. Bo Li & Steve Sain & Linda Mearns & Henry Anderson & Sari Kovats & Kristie Ebi & Marni Bekkedal & Marty Kanarek & Jonathan Patz, 2012. "The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 959-976, February.
    8. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leibin Wang & Robert V. Rohli & Qigen Lin & Shaofei Jin & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Lee, Sang-Hee & Park, Cheol-Min, 2022. "The effect of hunter-wild boar interactions and landscape heterogeneity on wild boar population size: A simulation study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    3. Brice B. Hanberry, 2020. "Compounded Heat and Fire Risk for Future U.S. Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-12, April.
    4. Andrew G. O. Malone, 2023. "Quantifying Who Will Be Affected by Shifting Climate Zones," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, July.
    5. B. N. Porfiriev & B. A. Revich, 2024. "Assessing Potential Damage to Public Health from Impacts Associated with Climate Variability and Climate Change," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 190-198, April.
    6. Giacomo Falchetta & Enrica Cian & Ian Sue Wing & Deborah Carr, 2024. "Global projections of heat exposure of older adults," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Fangjin Xu & Qingxu Huang & Huanbi Yue & Xingyun Feng & Haoran Xu & Chunyang He & Peng Yin & Brett A. Bryan, 2023. "The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Guillaume Rohat & Olga Wilhelmi & Johannes Flacke & Andrew Monaghan & Jing Gao & Martin Maarseveen & Hy Dao, 2021. "Assessing urban heat-related adaptation strategies under multiple futures for a major U.S. city," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Hamish Clarke & Rachael H. Nolan & Victor Resco Dios & Ross Bradstock & Anne Griebel & Shiva Khanal & Matthias M. Boer, 2022. "Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Peihua Qin & Zhenghui Xie & Binghao Jia & Rui Han & Buchun Liu, 2023. "Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Domenico Fulgione & Maria Buglione, 2022. "The Boar War: Five Hot Factors Unleashing Boar Expansion and Related Emergency," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    13. Guillaume Rohat, 2018. "Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, March.
    14. Jing Gao & Melissa S. Bukovsky, 2023. "Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    15. Brian C. O’Neill & Andrew Gettelman, 2018. "An introduction to the special issue on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 277-285, February.
    16. Xing Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Wenxia Zhang & Liwen Ren & Jie Jiang & Shuai Hu & Meng Zuo & Lixia Zhang & Wenmin Man, 2023. "Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.
    2. Ghaith Falah Ziarh & Jin Hyuck Kim & Seung Taek Chae & Hae-Yeol Kang & Changyu Hong & Jae Yeol Song & Eun-Sung Chung, 2024. "Identifying the Contributing Sources of Uncertainties in Urban Flood Vulnerability in South Korea Considering Multiple GCMs, SSPs, Weight Determination Methods, and MCDM Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Solberg, Birger & Moiseyev, Alex & Hansen, Jon Øvrum & Horn, Svein Jarle & Øverland, Margareth, 2021. "Wood for food: Economic impacts of sustainable use of forest biomass for salmon feed production in Norway," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    6. Speers, Ann E. & Besedin, Elena Y. & Palardy, James E. & Moore, Chris, 2016. "Impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reef fisheries: An integrated ecological–economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 33-43.
    7. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    9. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    10. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Phetheet, Jirapat & Hill, Mary C. & Barron, Robert W. & Gray, Benjamin J. & Wu, Hongyu & Amanor-Boadu, Vincent & Heger, Wade & Kisekka, Isaya & Golden, Bill & Rossi, Matthew W., 2021. "Relating agriculture, energy, and water decisions to farm incomes and climate projections using two freeware programs, FEWCalc and DSSAT," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.
    13. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    15. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    16. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Fabien Cremona & Sirje Vilbaste & Raoul-Marie Couture & Peeter Nõges & Tiina Nõges, 2017. "Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 347-361, March.
    18. Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip & Rübbelke, Dirk & Vögele, Stefan, 2020. "Economic disruptions in long-term energy scenarios – Implications for designing energy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    19. Sferra, Fabio & Krapp, Mario & Roming, Niklas & Schaeffer, Michiel & Malik, Aman & Hare, Bill & Brecha, Robert, 2019. "Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2133-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.