IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v170y2022i3d10.1007_s10584-021-03288-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts

Author

Listed:
  • D. J. Rasmussen

    (Princeton University)

  • Scott Kulp

    (Climate Central)

  • Robert E. Kopp

    (Rutgers University
    Rutgers University)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University
    Princeton University)

  • Benjamin H. Strauss

    (Climate Central)

Abstract

Estimates of changes in the frequency or height of contemporary extreme sea levels (ESLs) under various climate change scenarios are often used by climate and sea level scientists to help communicate the physical basis for societal concern regarding sea level rise. Changes in ESLs (i.e., the hazard) are often represented using various metrics and indicators that, when anchored to salient impacts on human systems and the natural environment, provide useful information to policy makers, stakeholders, and the general public. While changes in hazards are often anchored to impacts at local scales, aggregate global summary metrics generally lack the context of local exposure and vulnerability that facilitates translating hazards into impacts. Contextualizing changes in hazards is also needed when communicating the timing of when projected ESL frequencies cross critical thresholds, such as the year in which ESLs higher than the design height benchmark of protective infrastructure (e.g., the 100-year water level) are expected to occur within the lifetime of that infrastructure. We present specific examples demonstrating the need for such contextualization using a simple flood exposure model, local sea level rise projections, and population exposure estimates for 414 global cities. We suggest regional and global climate assessment reports integrate global, regional, and local perspectives on coastal risk to address hazard, vulnerability and exposure simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:170:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03288-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03288-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03288-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03288-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher M. Little & Radley M. Horton & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Gabriele Villarini, 2015. "Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1114-1120, December.
    2. Mathew E. Hauer & Jason M. Evans & Deepak R. Mishra, 2016. "Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 691-695, July.
    3. Maya K. Buchanan & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Claudia Tebaldi, 2016. "Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 347-362, August.
    4. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    5. Jorge A. Ramirez & Michal Lichter & Tom J. Coulthard & Chris Skinner, 2016. "Hyper-resolution mapping of regional storm surge and tide flooding: comparison of static and dynamic models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 571-590, May.
    6. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2019. "Author Correction: New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-2, December.
    7. Stuart G. Coles & Jonathan A. Tawn, 1994. "Statistical Methods for Multivariate Extremes: An Application to Structural Design," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 43(1), pages 1-31, March.
    8. Eisenman, D.P. & Cordasco, K.M. & Asch, S. & Golden, J.F. & Glik, D., 2007. "Disaster planning and risk communication with vulnerable communities: lessons from Hurricane Katrina," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(S1), pages 109-115.
    9. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    10. Nicholls,Robert John & Hinkel,Jochen & Lincke,Daniel & van der Pol,Thomas, 2019. "Global Investment Costs for Coastal Defense through the 21st Century," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8745, The World Bank.
    11. T. Wahl & I. D. Haigh & R. J. Nicholls & A. Arns & S. Dangendorf & J. Hinkel & A. B. A. Slangen, 2017. "Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Angélique Melet & Benoit Meyssignac & Rafael Almar & Gonéri Cozannet, 2018. "Author Correction: Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 840-840, September.
    13. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    14. Kevin J.E. Walsh & John L. McBride & Philip J. Klotzbach & Sethurathinam Balachandran & Suzana J. Camargo & Greg Holland & Thomas R. Knutson & James P. Kossin & Tsz‐cheung Lee & Adam Sobel & Masato Su, 2016. "Tropical cyclones and climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 65-89, January.
    15. Sanne Muis & Martin Verlaan & Hessel C. Winsemius & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Philip J. Ward, 2016. "A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, September.
    16. Sanne Muis & Martin Verlaan & Hessel C. Winsemius & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Philip J. Ward, 2016. "Correction: Corrigendum: A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-1, December.
    17. Angélique Melet & Benoit Meyssignac & Rafael Almar & Gonéri Le Cozannet, 2018. "Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(3), pages 234-239, March.
    18. Claudia Tebaldi & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Michalis Vousdoukas & D. J. Rasmussen & Ben Vega-Westhoff & Ebru Kirezci & Robert E. Kopp & Ryan Sriver & Lorenzo Mentaschi, 2021. "Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 746-751, September.
    19. Barbara Neumann & Athanasios T Vafeidis & Juliane Zimmermann & Robert J Nicholls, 2015. "Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-34, March.
    20. Thomas Frederikse & Maya K. Buchanan & Erwin Lambert & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & D. J. Rasmussen & Roderik S. W. van de Wal, 2020. "Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    21. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2019. "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    22. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
    23. Arne Arns & Thomas Wahl & Claudia Wolff & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Ivan D. Haigh & Philip Woodworth & Sebastian Niehüser & Jürgen Jensen, 2020. "Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    24. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    25. Scott Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2017. "Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 477-489, June.
    26. MacDonald, A. & Scarrott, C.J. & Lee, D. & Darlow, B. & Reale, M. & Russell, G., 2011. "A flexible extreme value mixture model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 2137-2157, June.
    27. Mathew E. Hauer, 2017. "Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 321-325, May.
    28. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    29. Sally Brown & Robert Nicholls & Jason Lowe & Jochen Hinkel, 2016. "Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 403-416, February.
    30. John Hunter, 2012. "A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 239-252, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Gabriel Bachner & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Sally Brown & Katie Jenkins & Philip Goodwin & Daniel Lincke & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Richard S. J. Tol & Rhosanna Jenkins & Rachel Warren & Robert J. Nicholls & Svetlana Jevrejeva & Agustin Sanchez, 2021. "Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    5. Antoine Mandel & Timothy Tiggeloven & Daniel Lincke & Elco Koks & Philip Ward & Jochen Hinkel, 2021. "Risks on global financial stability induced by climate change: the case of flood risks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-24, May.
    6. Mathew E. Hauer & Dean Hardy & Scott A. Kulp & Valerie Mueller & David J. Wrathall & Peter U. Clark, 2021. "Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Tina Dura & Andra J. Garner & Robert Weiss & Robert E. Kopp & Simon E. Engelhart & Robert C. Witter & Richard W. Briggs & Charles S. Mueller & Alan R. Nelson & Benjamin P. Horton, 2021. "Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    9. Magalhães Filho, L.N.L. & Roebeling, P.C. & Costa, L.F.C. & de Lima, L.T., 2022. "Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Steven A. McAlpine & Jeremy R. Porter, 2018. "Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade, Florida," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 871-895, December.
    11. Jun Rentschler & Melda Salhab & Bramka Arga Jafino, 2022. "Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    13. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    14. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    15. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    18. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    19. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    20. Zheng, Zhoumin & Xu, Nuo & Khan, Mohsin & Pedersen, Michael & Abdalgader, Tarteel & Zhang, Lai, 2024. "Nonlinear impacts of climate change on dengue transmission in mainland China: Underlying mechanisms and future projection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:170:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03288-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.