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Future population exposure to US heat extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Bryan Jones

    (CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, Baruch College School of Public Affairs)

  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Larry McDaniel

    (Computational & Information Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Seth McGinnis

    (Computational & Information Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Linda O. Mearns

    (Computational & Information Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Claudia Tebaldi

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

US population exposure to extreme heat is set to increase four- to sixfold from the late twentieth century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Jones & Brian C. O’Neill & Larry McDaniel & Seth McGinnis & Linda O. Mearns & Claudia Tebaldi, 2015. "Future population exposure to US heat extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 652-655, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:7:d:10.1038_nclimate2631
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2631
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yan Yu & Jiafu Mao & Stan D. Wullschleger & Anping Chen & Xiaoying Shi & Yaoping Wang & Forrest M. Hoffman & Yulong Zhang & Eric Pierce, 2022. "Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. G. Brooke Anderson & Keith W. Oleson & Bryan Jones & Roger D. Peng, 2018. "Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 455-470, February.
    3. Anna Marandi & Kelly Leilani Main, 2021. "Vulnerable City, recipient city, or climate destination? Towards a typology of domestic climate migration impacts in US cities," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 465-480, September.
    4. Zhang, Yitong & Hao, Zengchao & Zhang, Yu, 2023. "Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Jenna Dodson & Patricia Dérer & Philip Cafaro & Frank Götmark, 2022. "Population growth, family planning and the Paris Agreement: an assessment of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs)," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 561-576, September.
    6. Salvi Asefi-Najafabady & Karen L Vandecar & Anton Seimon & Peter Lawrence & Deborah Lawrence, 2018. "Climate change, population, and poverty: vulnerability and exposure to heat stress in countries bordering the Great Lakes of Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 561-573, June.
    7. Franz Schug & David Frantz & Sebastian van der Linden & Patrick Hostert, 2021. "Gridded population mapping for Germany based on building density, height and type from Earth Observation data using census disaggregation and bottom-up estimates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, March.
    8. Hamidreza Zoraghein & Brian C. O'Neill, 2020. "A spatial population downscaling model for integrated human-environment analysis in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(54), pages 1563-1606.
    9. Yuqing Zhang & Guangxiong Mao & Changchun Chen & Liucheng Shen & Binyu Xiao, 2021. "Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    10. Binita KC & J. M. Shepherd & Anthony W. King & Cassandra Johnson Gaither, 2021. "Multi-hazard climate risk projections for the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1963-1976, January.
    11. Mathew E. Hauer & Carl P. Schmertmann, 2020. "Population Pyramids Yield Accurate Estimates of Total Fertility Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 221-241, February.
    12. Frankovic, Ivan, 2017. "The impact of climate change on health expenditures," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2017, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    13. Brian Odhiambo Ayugi & Charles Onyutha & Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian & Huanhuan Zhu & Hassen Babousmail & Eun-Sung Chung, 2024. "Amplification of compound hot-dry extremes and associated population exposure over East Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(9), pages 1-23, September.
    14. R Varela & L Rodríguez-Díaz & M deCastro, 2020. "Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.
    15. Hamidreza Zoraghein & Brian C. O’Neill, 2020. "U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-26, April.
    16. Giacomo Falchetta & Enrica Cian & Ian Sue Wing & Deborah Carr, 2024. "Global projections of heat exposure of older adults," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Chenghao Wang & Jiyun Song & Dachuan Shi & Janet L. Reyna & Henry Horsey & Sarah Feron & Yuyu Zhou & Zutao Ouyang & Ying Li & Robert B. Jackson, 2023. "Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    18. Sri Hasnawati & Mustofa Usman & Ahmad Faisol & Faiz A. M. Elfaki, 2023. "Analysis and Modeling Gross Domestic Product, Carbon Dioxide Emission, Population Growth, and Life Expectancy at Birth: Case Study in Qatar," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 467-483, March.
    19. K. Shuvo Bakar & Huidong Jin, 2018. "Spatio-temporal quantitative links between climatic extremes and population flows: a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 139-153, May.
    20. Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
    21. Dan Wanyama & Erin L. Bunting & Nicholas Weil & David Keellings, 2023. "Delineating and characterizing changes in heat wave events across the United States climate regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-23, February.
    22. Flavio Lehner & Clara Deser & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 363-375, February.
    23. Elisabeth Tschumi & Jakob Zscheischler, 2020. "Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 593-609, February.
    24. Ariane Middel & Jonas Lukasczyk & Ross Maciejewski, 2017. "Sky View Factors from Synthetic Fisheye Photos for Thermal Comfort Routing—A Case Study in Phoenix, Arizona," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 2(1), pages 19-30.

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