IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-34966-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Author

Listed:
  • Hamish Clarke

    (University of Wollongong
    NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub
    Western Sydney University
    University of Melbourne)

  • Rachael H. Nolan

    (NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub
    Western Sydney University)

  • Victor Resco Dios

    (Universitat de Lleida
    JRU CTFC-AGROTECNIO-Cerca Center
    Southwest University of Science and Technology)

  • Ross Bradstock

    (University of Wollongong
    NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub
    Industry and Environment)

  • Anne Griebel

    (NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub
    Western Sydney University)

  • Shiva Khanal

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Matthias M. Boer

    (Western Sydney University)

Abstract

Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamish Clarke & Rachael H. Nolan & Victor Resco Dios & Ross Bradstock & Anne Griebel & Shiva Khanal & Matthias M. Boer, 2022. "Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34966-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34966-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34966-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-34966-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karen A. McKinnon & Andrew Poppick & Isla R. Simpson, 2021. "Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(7), pages 598-604, July.
    2. Douglas I. Kelley & Ioannis Bistinas & Rhys Whitley & Chantelle Burton & Toby R. Marthews & Ning Dong, 2019. "How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(9), pages 690-696, September.
    3. Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
    4. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    5. Luciana V. Gatti & Luana S. Basso & John B. Miller & Manuel Gloor & Lucas Gatti Domingues & Henrique L. G. Cassol & Graciela Tejada & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão & Carlos Nobre & Wouter Peters & Luciano Mara, 2021. "Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7867), pages 388-393, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laraib Ahmad & Sameer Saran, 2024. "Anthropogenic evidences as precursors to forest fire trigger in Western Himalayan Region," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 16827-16846, July.
    2. Simon P. K. Bowring & Wei Li & Florent Mouillot & Thais M. Rosan & Philippe Ciais, 2024. "Road fragment edges enhance wildfire incidence and intensity, while suppressing global burned area," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guillaume Rohat, 2018. "Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    3. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    5. Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira & Jarbas Honorio Miranda, 2021. "Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3236-3250, March.
    6. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Joan Pau Sierra & Ricard Castrillo & Marc Mestres & César Mösso & Piero Lionello & Luigi Marzo, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Wave Energy Resource in the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    8. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    10. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2022. "Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: evidence from Hungary," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1751-1776, October.
    12. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    13. Jiufeng Wei & Hufang Zhang & Wanqing Zhao & Qing Zhao, 2017. "Niche shifts and the potential distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    14. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Heinz-Peter Witzke & Pavel Ciaian & Jacques Delince, 2014. "CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach," JRC Research Reports JRC85872, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    17. Alexis S. Pascaris & Joshua M. Pearce, 2020. "U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Bottlenecks: Prioritization of Targets for Climate Liability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-28, August.
    18. Jiban Chandra Deb & Stuart Phinn & Nathalie Butt & Clive A. McAlpine, 2019. "Adaptive management and planning for the conservation of four threatened large Asian mammals in a changing climate," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 259-280, February.
    19. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    20. Mohamed Kefi & Binaya Kumar Mishra & Yoshifumi Masago & Kensuke Fukushi, 2020. "Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2461-2487, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34966-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.