IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v161y2020i1d10.1007_s10584-020-02659-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Taylor

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI))

  • Ruth Butterfield

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI))

  • Tiago Capela Lourenço

    (University of Lisbon)

  • Adis Dzebo

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
    Utrecht University)

  • Henrik Carlsen

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI))

  • Richard J. T. Klein

    (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
    Linköping University)

Abstract

We surveyed members of the adaptation community about their views on high-end climate change—here defined as global average temperature increase exceeding 2 °C at the end of the century—at consecutive conferences in 2016 and 2018. Most strikingly our surveys show that a majority of the community disagrees that the Paris Agreement has reduced the possibility of the world reaching dangerous levels of climate change. Consistent with this, around two thirds of people consulted are considering high-end climate change or using high-end scenarios in their work all the time, or starting to. However, this is still not done by all. Preparedness for the specific threats posed by high-end impacts is not keeping pace, and more work needs to be done to strengthen the research basis and understand adaptation needs under high-end climate change. Moreover, views on finding information on impacts and tools for decision-making have not changed between 2016 and 2018, showing that there is no improvement. This situation underlines that the adaptation community needs to do better in supporting exchange of information and data between all actors—in addition to finding and filling knowledge gaps. Despite this, there is widespread support for avoiding delaying large-scale adaptation until we have more certainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:161:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02659-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02659-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02659-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02659-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rachel James & Friederike Otto & Hannah Parker & Emily Boyd & Rosalind Cornforth & Daniel Mitchell & Myles Allen, 2014. "Characterizing loss and damage from climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 938-939, November.
    2. Kirstin Dow & Frans Berkhout & Benjamin L. Preston & Richard J. T. Klein & Guy Midgley & M. Rebecca Shaw, 2013. "Limits to adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 305-307, April.
    3. Paula A. Harrison & Robert W. Dunford & Ian P. Holman & Mark D. A. Rounsevell, 2016. "Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 885-890, September.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    5. Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein & Per Wikman-Svahn, 2017. "Transparent scenario development," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 613-613, September.
    6. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    7. N. R. Golledge & D. E. Kowalewski & T. R. Naish & R. H. Levy & C. J. Fogwill & E. G. W. Gasson, 2015. "The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 526(7573), pages 421-425, October.
    8. Tiago Capela Lourenço & Rob Swart & Hasse Goosen & Roger Street, 2016. "The rise of demand-driven climate services," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 13-14, January.
    9. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    10. Miriam Dunn & Mark D. Rounsevell & Henrik Carlsen & Adis Dzebo & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Joseph Hagg, 2017. "To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 181-195, March.
    11. Lawrence C. Hamilton, 2018. "Self-assessed understanding of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 349-362, November.
    12. Ben Parkes & Benjamin Sultan & Philippe Ciais, 2018. "The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 205-217, November.
    13. Anju Sharma, 2017. "Precaution and post-caution in the Paris Agreement: adaptation, loss and damage and finance," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 33-47, January.
    14. David G. Victor & Keigo Akimoto & Yoichi Kaya & Mitsutsune Yamaguchi & Danny Cullenward & Cameron Hepburn, 2017. "Prove Paris was more than paper promises," Nature, Nature, vol. 548(7665), pages 25-27, August.
    15. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vanessa J. Schweizer, 2020. "Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1705-1722, October.
    2. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    3. He, Jianjian & Yang, Yi & Liao, Zhongju & Xu, Anqi & Fang, Kai, 2022. "Linking SDG 7 to assess the renewable energy footprint of nations by 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    4. Magalhães Filho, L.N.L. & Roebeling, P.C. & Costa, L.F.C. & de Lima, L.T., 2022. "Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Priess, Joerg A. & Hauck, Jennifer & Haines-Young, Roy & Alkemade, Rob & Mandryk, Maryia & Veerkamp, Clara & Gyorgyi, Bela & Dunford, Rob & Berry, Pam & Harrison, Paula & Dick, Jan & Keune, Hans & Kok, 2018. "New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – Scenario process and initial scenario applications," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 29(PC), pages 542-551.
    6. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    7. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    8. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    11. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    12. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    14. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    15. Zheng, Zhoumin & Xu, Nuo & Khan, Mohsin & Pedersen, Michael & Abdalgader, Tarteel & Zhang, Lai, 2024. "Nonlinear impacts of climate change on dengue transmission in mainland China: Underlying mechanisms and future projection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    16. Hongliang Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Bruce A. McCarl & Jialing Yu, 2022. "The impact of climate change on global energy use," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, January.
    17. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    18. Julien CALAS & Antoine GODIN & Julie MAURIN (AFD) & and Etienne ESPAGNE (World Bank), 2022. "Global biodiversity scenarios: what do they tell us for biodiversity-related socioeconomic impacts?," Working Paper 1a39419b-ef1d-4b82-a7be-d, Agence française de développement.
    19. Juliette N. Rooney-Varga & Florian Kapmeier & John D. Sterman & Andrew P. Jones & Michele Putko & Kenneth Rath, 2020. "The Climate Action Simulation," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 51(2), pages 114-140, April.
    20. Moyer, Jonathan D. & Hedden, Steve, 2020. "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:161:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02659-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.