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Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

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  • Giacomo Falchetta

    (CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
    RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Enrica Cian

    (CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
    RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
    Ca’ Foscari University)

  • Ian Sue Wing

    (Boston University)

  • Deborah Carr

    (Boston University)

Abstract

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomo Falchetta & Enrica Cian & Ian Sue Wing & Deborah Carr, 2024. "Global projections of heat exposure of older adults," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-47197-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47197-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giacomo Falchetta & Enrica De Cian & Filippo Pavanello & Ian Sue Wing, 2024. "Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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