IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v170y2022i1d10.1007_s10584-021-03258-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate-driven Mediterranean fire hazard assessments for 2020–2100 on the light of past millennial variability

Author

Listed:
  • Marion Lestienne

    (Chrono-Environnement, CNRS, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté
    ISEM, Université Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE
    Czech University of Life Sciences Prague)

  • Boris Vannière

    (Chrono-Environnement, CNRS, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté
    MSHE Ledoux, CNRS, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté)

  • Thomas Curt

    (Aix Marseille Univ)

  • Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot

    (Chrono-Environnement, CNRS, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté)

  • Christelle Hély

    (ISEM, Université Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE
    PSL University)

Abstract

In the Mediterranean basin, Corsica (French island) harbours among the best-preserved Mediterranean forest ecosystems. However, its high biodiversity could be threatened by the climate and disturbance-regime changes due to the global warming. This study aims (i) to estimate the future climate-related fire hazard in Corsica for the current century (2020–2100) based on two RCP scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and (ii) to compare the predicted trends with the entire Holocene period for which fire hazard has previously been assessed. An ensemble of future climate simulations from two IPCC RCP scenarios has been used to compute the Monthly Drought Code (MDC) and the Fire Season Length (FSL) and to assess the level of fire hazard. Here, we show that the MDC and the FSL would both strongly increase over the next decades due to the combined effect of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the Corsica region. Moreover, the maximum Holocene FLS (7000 to 9000 years ago) will be reached (and even exceeded depending upon the scenario) after 2040. For the first time in the Holocene, we may be confronted to an increase in the number of fire-prone months driven by climate combined with many human-caused ignitions. This combination should increase the burned area from 15 to 140% according to scenarios. For the next 30 years, the game seems to be already played as both RCP scenarios resulted in similar increase in fire hazard in terms of drought and duration. It is thus mandatory to reconsider fire-management and fire-prevention policy to mitigate the future fire risk and its catastrophic consequences for ecosystems, population, and economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Marion Lestienne & Boris Vannière & Thomas Curt & Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot & Christelle Hély, 2022. "Climate-driven Mediterranean fire hazard assessments for 2020–2100 on the light of past millennial variability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:170:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03258-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03258-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03258-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03258-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    2. Julien Ruffault & Nicolas Martin-StPaul & Serge Rambal & Florent Mouillot, 2013. "Differential regional responses in drought length, intensity and timing to recent climate changes in a Mediterranean forested ecosystem," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 103-117, March.
    3. J. Bedia & S. Herrera & D. Martín & N. Koutsias & J. Gutiérrez, 2013. "Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 229-247, September.
    4. H. Fargeon & F. Pimont & N. Martin-StPaul & M. Caceres & J. Ruffault & R. Barbero & J-L. Dupuy, 2020. "Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 479-493, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. Hewitson & J. Daron & R. Crane & M. Zermoglio & C. Jack, 2014. "Interrogating empirical-statistical downscaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 539-554, February.
    2. Enoch Bessah & Emmanuel A. Boakye & Sampson K. Agodzo & Emmanuel Nyadzi & Isaac Larbi & Alfred Awotwi, 2021. "Increased seasonal rainfall in the twenty-first century over Ghana and its potential implications for agriculture productivity," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12342-12365, August.
    3. repec:hal:journl:hal-04684634 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Jiří Mikšovský & Rudolf Brázdil & Petr Štĕpánek & Pavel Zahradníček & Petr Pišoft, 2014. "Long-term variability of temperature and precipitation in the Czech Lands: an attribution analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 253-264, July.
    6. Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    7. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    8. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    9. Ramos, Rodrigo Soares & Kumar, Lalit & Shabani, Farzin & Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho, 2019. "Risk of spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in tomato crops under various climate change scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 524-535.
    10. Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Jabloun, Mohamed & Andersen, Mathias Neumann & Zhang, Xiying & Olesen, Jørgen Eivind, 2019. "Climate change is expected to increase yield and water use efficiency of wheat in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 193-203.
    11. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    12. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    13. Rungruang Janta & Laksanara Khwanchum & Pakorn Ditthakit & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh, 2022. "Water Yield Alteration in Thailand’s Pak Phanang Basin Due to Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    14. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    15. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    16. Catherine C. Ivanovich & Tianyi Sun & Doria R. Gordon & Ilissa B. Ocko, 2023. "Future warming from global food consumption," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 297-302, March.
    17. Erik O. Sterner & Tom Adawi & U. Martin Persson & Ulrika Lundqvist, 2019. "Knowing how and knowing when: unpacking public understanding of atmospheric CO2 accumulation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 49-67, May.
    18. Matthew A. Thomas & Ting Lin, 2018. "A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 311-324, May.
    19. Schmitz, Christoph & van Meijl, Hans & Kyle, Page & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Gurgel, Angelo & Havlik, Petr & d'Croz, Daniel Mason & Popp, Alexander & Sands, Ron & Tabeau, Andrzej & van der Mensbrugghe, , 2013. "An agro-economic model comparison of cropland change until 2050," Conference papers 332351, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Kizildeniz, T. & Irigoyen, J.J & Pascual, I. & Morales, F., 2018. "Simulating the impact of climate change (elevated CO2 and temperature, and water deficit) on the growth of red and white Tempranillo grapevine in three consecutive growing seasons (2013–2015)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 220-230.
    21. Alison Rothwell & Brad Ridoutt & William Bellotti, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:170:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03258-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.