IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v180y2017ipap88-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, L.
  • Ahuja, L.R.
  • Islam, A.
  • Trout, T.J.
  • Saseendran, S.A.
  • Malone, R.W.

Abstract

With as much as 4.8°C increase in air temperature by end of 21st century, new crop cultivars are needed for adapting to the new climate. The objective of this study was to identify maize (Zea mays L.) cultivar parameters that maintain yield under projected climate for late in the 21st century under full and deficit irrigation in a semi-arid region. The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) was calibrated with four years of maize data from northeastern Colorado, USA, under various irrigation conditions and was then used to simulate climate change effects on maize production with current management practices. Results showed that projected climate change decreased yield by 21% and biomass by 7% late in the 21st century (2070–2091) under full irrigation, compared to yield in the current climate (1992–2013). Under deficit irrigation, the corresponding reductions were 14% and 3%, respectively. Using the cultivar parameters calibrated with RZWQM2 for southern Colorado condition did not show yield decrease under future climate, but it simulated much lower yield under current climate in northeastern Colorado. A cultivar from the DSSAT (Decision Support Systems for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop database (GL 482) produced similar yield to experimental data under current climate and increased yield by 4% at full irrigation under future climate in northeastern Colorado. Using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), we also identified 70 cultivars with longer maturity duration (between silking and physiological maturity) and higher grain filling rate for mitigating climate change effects on maize production. These two identified traits can guide plant breeders in developing cultivars for the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, L. & Ahuja, L.R. & Islam, A. & Trout, T.J. & Saseendran, S.A. & Malone, R.W., 2017. "Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 180(PA), pages 88-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:180:y:2017:i:pa:p:88-98
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2016.11.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377416304504
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.11.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rooholla Moradi & Alireza Koocheki & Mehdi Nassiri Mahallati & Hamed Mansoori, 2013. "Adaptation strategies for maize cultivation under climate change in Iran: irrigation and planting date management," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 265-284, February.
    2. Dianyuan Ding & Hao Feng & Ying Zhao & Wenzhao Liu & Haixin Chen & Jianqiang He, 2016. "Impact assessment of climate change and later-maturing cultivars on winter wheat growth and soil water deficit on the Loess Plateau of China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 157-171, September.
    3. Piara Singh & S. Nedumaran & B. Ntare & K. Boote & N. Singh & K. Srinivas & M. Bantilan, 2014. "Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance in groundnut for adaptation to climate change in India and West Africa," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 509-529, June.
    4. Jonghan Ko & Lajpat Ahuja & S. Saseendran & Timothy Green & Liwang Ma & David Nielsen & Charles Walthall, 2012. "Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the Central Great Plains, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 445-472, March.
    5. Meza, Francisco J. & Silva, Daniel & Vigil, Hernan, 2008. "Climate change impacts on irrigated maize in Mediterranean climates: Evaluation of double cropping as an emerging adaptation alternative," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 21-30, July.
    6. Ma, L. & Hoogenboom, G. & Ahuja, L.R. & Ascough II, J.C. & Saseendran, S.A., 2006. "Evaluation of the RZWQM-CERES-Maize hybrid model for maize production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 274-295, March.
    7. Saseendran, S.A. & Ahuja, Lajpat R. & Ma, Liwang & Trout, Thomas J. & McMaster, Gregory S. & Nielsen, David C. & Ham, Jay M. & Andales, Allan A. & Halvorson, Ardel D. & Chávez, José L. & Fang, Quanxia, 2015. "Developing and normalizing average corn crop water production functions across years and locations using a system model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 65-77.
    8. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    9. Rooholla Moradi & Alireza Koocheki & Mehdi Nassiri Mahallati, 2014. "Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(8), pages 1223-1238, December.
    10. Guo, Ruiping & Lin, Zhonghui & Mo, Xingguo & Yang, Chunlin, 2010. "Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1185-1194, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    2. Leghari, Shah Jahan & Hu, Kelin & Wei, Yichang & Wang, Tongchao & Bhutto, Tofique Ahmed & Buriro, Mahmooda, 2021. "Modelling water consumption, N fates and maize yield under different water-saving management practices in China and Pakistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    3. Kuang, Naikun & Ma, Yuzhao & Hong, Shengzhe & Jiao, Fengli & Liu, Changyuan & Li, Quanqi & Han, Huifang, 2021. "Simulation of soil moisture dynamics, evapotranspiration, and water drainage of summer maize in response to different depths of subsoiling with RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    4. Robert Malone & Jurgen Garbrecht & Phillip Busteed & Jerry Hatfield & Dennis Todey & Jade Gerlitz & Quanxiao Fang & Matthew Sima & Anna Radke & Liwang Ma & Zhiming Qi & Huaiqing Wu & Dan Jaynes & Thom, 2020. "Drainage N Loads Under Climate Change with Winter Rye Cover Crop in a Northern Mississippi River Basin Corn-Soybean Rotation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Zhang, Jing & Zhang, Huihui & Sima, Matthew W. & Trout, Thomas J. & Malone, Rob W. & Wang, Li, 2021. "Simulated deficit irrigation and climate change effects on sunflower production in Eastern Colorado with CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower in RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    6. Li, Yizhuo & Tian, Di & Feng, Gary & Yang, Wei & Feng, Liping, 2021. "Climate change and cover crop effects on water use efficiency of a corn-soybean rotation system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    7. Jeong, Hanseok & Pittelkow, Cameron M. & Bhattarai, Rabin, 2019. "Simulated responses of tile-drained agricultural systems to recent changes in ambient atmospheric gradients," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 48-55.
    8. Zhang, Junxiao & Wang, Qianqing & Xia, Guimin & Wu, Qi & Chi, Daocai, 2021. "Continuous regulated deficit irrigation enhances peanut water use efficiency and drought resistance," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    9. Allakonon, M. Gloriose B. & Zakari, Sissou & Tovihoudji, Pierre G. & Fatondji, A. Sènami & Akponikpè, P.B. Irénikatché, 2022. "Grain yield, actual evapotranspiration and water productivity responses of maize crop to deficit irrigation: A global meta-analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    10. Lionel Jordan-Meille & Elsa Martineau & Yoran Bornot & José Lavres & Cassio Hamilton Abreu-Junior & Jean-Christophe Domec, 2018. "How Does Water-Stressed Corn Respond to Potassium Nutrition? A Shoot-Root Scale Approach Study under Controlled Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Jing & Zhang, Huihui & Sima, Matthew W. & Trout, Thomas J. & Malone, Rob W. & Wang, Li, 2021. "Simulated deficit irrigation and climate change effects on sunflower production in Eastern Colorado with CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower in RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Wang, Xiaowen & Li, Liang & Ding, Yibo & Xu, Jiatun & Wang, Yunfei & Zhu, Yan & Wang, Xiaoyun & Cai, Huanjie, 2021. "Adaptation of winter wheat varieties and irrigation patterns under future climate change conditions in Northern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    4. Azam Lashkari & Amin Alizadeh & Ehsan Rezaei & Mohammad Bannayan, 2012. "Mitigation of climate change impacts on maize productivity in northeast of Iran: a simulation study," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Jabloun, Mohamed & Andersen, Mathias Neumann & Zhang, Xiying & Olesen, Jørgen Eivind, 2019. "Climate change is expected to increase yield and water use efficiency of wheat in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 193-203.
    6. Sangam Shrestha & Proloy Deb & Thi Bui, 2016. "Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-37, January.
    7. Ding, Dianyuan & Yang, Zijie & Wu, Lihong & Zhao, Ying & Zhang, Xi & Chen, Xiaoping & Feng, Hao & Zhang, Chao & Wendroth, Ole, 2024. "Optimizing nitrogen-fertilizer management by using RZWQM2 with consideration of precipitation can enhance nitrogen utilization on the Loess Plateau," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    8. Robert Malone & Jurgen Garbrecht & Phillip Busteed & Jerry Hatfield & Dennis Todey & Jade Gerlitz & Quanxiao Fang & Matthew Sima & Anna Radke & Liwang Ma & Zhiming Qi & Huaiqing Wu & Dan Jaynes & Thom, 2020. "Drainage N Loads Under Climate Change with Winter Rye Cover Crop in a Northern Mississippi River Basin Corn-Soybean Rotation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Dianyuan Ding & Hao Feng & Ying Zhao & Wenzhao Liu & Haixin Chen & Jianqiang He, 2016. "Impact assessment of climate change and later-maturing cultivars on winter wheat growth and soil water deficit on the Loess Plateau of China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 157-171, September.
    10. Zhaozhi Wang & Zhiming Qi & Lulin Xue & Melissa Bukovsky & Matthew Helmers, 2015. "Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 323-335, March.
    11. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Cenacchi, Nicola & Creamer, Bernardo & Gueneau, Arthur & Hareau, Guy & Kleinwechter, Ulrich & Mottaleb, Khondoker & Nedumaran, Swamikannu &, 2015. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: Ex ante analysis of promising and alternative crop technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT:," IFPRI discussion papers 1469, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Ahmadi, Mojgan & Etedali, Hadi Ramezani & Elbeltagi, Ahmed, 2021. "Evaluation of the effect of climate change on maize water footprint under RCPs scenarios in Qazvin plain, Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    13. Rooholla Moradi & Alireza Koocheki & Mehdi Nassiri Mahallati, 2014. "Adaptation of maize to climate change impacts in Iran," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(8), pages 1223-1238, December.
    14. Jose Garrido & Xavier Milhaud & Anani Olympio & Max Popp, 2024. "Climate Risk and its Impact on Insurance [Risque climatique et impact en assurance]," Post-Print hal-04684634, HAL.
    15. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    16. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Giraldo, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Paolo, 2013. "Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-12.
    17. Li, Sien & Kang, Shaozhong & Zhang, Lu & Du, Taisheng & Tong, Ling & Ding, Risheng & Guo, Weihua & Zhao, Peng & Chen, Xia & Xiao, Huan, 2015. "Ecosystem water use efficiency for a sparse vineyard in arid northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 24-33.
    18. Saseendran, S.A. & Ahuja, Lajpat R. & Ma, Liwang & Trout, Thomas J. & McMaster, Gregory S. & Nielsen, David C. & Ham, Jay M. & Andales, Allan A. & Halvorson, Ardel D. & Chávez, José L. & Fang, Quanxia, 2015. "Developing and normalizing average corn crop water production functions across years and locations using a system model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 65-77.
    19. Jiří Mikšovský & Rudolf Brázdil & Petr Štĕpánek & Pavel Zahradníček & Petr Pišoft, 2014. "Long-term variability of temperature and precipitation in the Czech Lands: an attribution analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 253-264, July.
    20. Wang, Junbo & Ma, Zhenyu & Fan, Xiayang, 2023. "We are all in the same boat: The welfare and carbon abatement effects of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism," MPRA Paper 118978, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:180:y:2017:i:pa:p:88-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.