IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envira/v19y1987i3p353-367.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 1. Theoretical Framework

Author

Listed:
  • R Barras
  • D Ferguson

Abstract

The paper is a report on the second stage of a project designed to investigate the incidence and causes of postwar building cycles in the British economy. In the first stage spectral analysis was used to identify the main postwar cycles in each sector of building (industrial, commercial, and residential), and the second stage has been concerned with the development of a theoretical framework suitable for dynamic modelling of these cycles. The modelling framework incorporates both an endogenous cyclical mechanism of the type used in accelerator models of investment, to reflect the long production lags in building activity, and the exogenous influence on the building cycle of variations in economic factors such as gross domestic product and interest rates. The modelling technique used to formulate the theoretical framework is based upon a transfer-function model of the Box–Jenkins type, incorporating an error-correction mechanism to reproduce the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables. The third stage empirical results of the model-building exercise are reported in a separate paper.

Suggested Citation

  • R Barras & D Ferguson, 1987. "Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 1. Theoretical Framework," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(3), pages 353-367, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:19:y:1987:i:3:p:353-367
    DOI: 10.1068/a190353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/a190353
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1068/a190353?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nishimizu, Mieko & Quandt, Richard E. & Rosen, harvey S., 1982. "The demand and supply for investment goods: does the market clear?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-21.
    2. Currie, David A, 1981. "Some Long Run Features of Dynamic Time Series Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 704-715, September.
    3. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yannis Hatzikian & Eleftherios Bampasis, 2017. "Exploring the Relationship of Innovation Intensity, Knowledge Production and Productivity in Greek SMEs Before the Eruption of Debt Crisis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(1), pages 294-318, March.
    2. S Tsolacos & G Keogh & T McGough, 1998. "Modelling Use, Investment, and Development in the British Office Market," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1427, August.
    3. Yanfang Sun & Haiyan Xie & Xirong Niu, 2019. "Characteristics of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Development of the Chinese Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-14, August.
    4. A J McGough & S Tsolacos, 1997. "The Stylised Facts of the UK Commercial Building Cycles," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 29(3), pages 485-500, March.
    5. J Coakley, 1994. "The Integration of Property and Financial Markets," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 26(5), pages 697-713, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Econometric Modelling: The ‘Consumption Function’ In Retrospect," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 495-522, November.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Chhibber, Ajay & Shafik, Nemat, 1990. "Does devaluation hurt private investment? The Indonesian case," Policy Research Working Paper Series 418, The World Bank.
    4. Ioannis Kaskarelis, 1991. "Output fluctuations with bargained wages and a competitive tradeable goods sector in the economy: Empirical estimates for the group of five, 1970.1 — 1985.4," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(1), pages 42-72, March.
    5. Auguste Mpacko Priso, 1998. "Une évaluation de l'importance des anticipations boursières des experts," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 49-61.
    6. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1987. "Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 2. Empirical Results," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(4), pages 493-520, April.
    7. Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1991. "Consommation privée et endettement public en Italie et en Belgique : existe-t-il une relation stable ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 79-121.
    8. Niemi, Jyrki, 2000. "Short-run and Long-run Elasticities for ASEAN Agricultural Exports to the European Union: an Error-correction Mechanism Approach," 2000 Conference, August 13-18, 2000, Berlin, Germany 197212, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Gilbert Colletaz & Jean-Pierre Gourlaouen, 1990. "Coïntégration et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712.
    10. Françoise Maurel, 1989. "Modèles à correction d'erreur : l'apport de la théorie de la co-intégration," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 88(2), pages 105-125.
    11. Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2006. "On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 1-11, January.
    12. Tsang, Shu-ki & Ma, Yue, 1997. "Simulating the impact of foreign capital in an open-economy macroeconomic model of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 435-478, July.
    13. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Yeung, Matthew C.H. & Ramasamy, Bala & Chen, Junsong & Paliwoda, Stan, 2013. "Customer satisfaction and consumer expenditure in selected European countries," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 406-416.
    16. Hildenbrand, Werner & Kneip, Alois, 2005. "Aggregate behavior and microdata," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-27, January.
    17. Moosa, Imad A. & Choe, Chongwoo, 1998. "Is the Korean economy export-driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 237-255, April.
    18. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    19. Jonathan Aylen & Kevin Albertson & Gina Cavan, 2014. "The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 183-197, November.
    20. Lord, Montague, 2000. "Viet Nam: Small Scale Technical assistance for Capacity Building of Ministry of Finance to Support Tariff, Industry and Subsidy Analysis for the WTO Accession," MPRA Paper 41158, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:19:y:1987:i:3:p:353-367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.