IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i17p4523-d259427.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Characteristics of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Development of the Chinese Construction Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Yanfang Sun

    (College of Civil Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, 79 West Yingze St., Taiyuan 030024, China)

  • Haiyan Xie

    (College of Applied Science & Technology, Illinois State University, Campus Box 5000, Normal, IL 61790-5000, USA)

  • Xirong Niu

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Shanxi University, 36 South Honggou St., Taiyuan 030013, China)

Abstract

In the course of operation, the construction industry will repeat deviations and adjustments to it equilibrium state. Understanding the development fluctuations of the construction industry is critical to the formulation of a country’s sustainable development strategy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the development trend and fluctuation periodicity of the construction industry, particularly the deviation and characteristics of the development. In this paper, based on the H-P filtering method, the residual method for measurement of macro-economic cycle fluctuation is used to divide the periodic fluctuation of the Chinese construction industry into five rounds of economic cycles since the reform and opening up. The results are tested by a random test model and a self-correlation coefficient test model. The longitudinal time-series of data investigated in this research is the constant-price, gross output values of the construction industry in China in the period of 1980–2017 for a total of 38 years based on the national annual statistics. The results of the mathematical test show that the peak or valley of the economic cycle fluctuation of the construction industry in China reappears about every seven years or so. It shows that since the reform and opening up, the peak position of the cycle fluctuation of the Chinese construction industry began to decrease gradually, the valley level began to rise gradually, the volatility showed a downward trend, and the construction industry cycle fluctuation entered a steady and smooth process. The results of this study provide new comprehension of the development trend of construction industry and build the theoretical basis for governments and enterprises to judge the future development trends when formulating the relevant policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanfang Sun & Haiyan Xie & Xirong Niu, 2019. "Characteristics of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Development of the Chinese Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-14, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:17:p:4523-:d:259427
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/17/4523/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/17/4523/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. H Leitner, 1994. "Capital Markets, the Development Industry, and Urban Office Market Dynamics: Rethinking Building Cycles," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 26(5), pages 779-802, May.
    3. Manuel Gottlieb, 1976. "Long Swings in Urban Development," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gott76-1.
    4. Timothy Jones & Yongwei Shan & Paul Goodrum, 2010. "An investigation of corporate approaches to sustainability in the US engineering and construction industry," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(9), pages 971-983.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    6. William C. Wheaton, 1987. "The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(4), pages 281-299, December.
    7. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Martin Gornig & Claus Michelsen, 2015. "German Construction Industry: New Residential Construction at Cyclical Peak - Public Construction Gaining Ground," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 5(3), pages 23-31.
    9. Ying Li & Ronggui Ding & Tao Sun, 2019. "The Drivers and Performance of Environmental Practices in the Chinese Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, January.
    10. Paul Alagidede, 2016. "On the temporary and permanent components of global construction," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 284-289, March.
    11. Wheaton, William C & Torto, Raymond G & Evans, Peter, 1997. "The Cyclic Behavior of the Greater London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 77-92, July.
    12. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1987. "Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 2. Empirical Results," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(4), pages 493-520, April.
    13. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    14. R Barras, 1983. "A Simple Theoretical Model of the Office-Development Cycle," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 15(10), pages 1381-1394, October.
    15. Jorge Lopes, 1998. "The construction industry and macroeconomy in Sub-Saharan Africa post 1970," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 637-649.
    16. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1985. "A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(10), pages 1369-1391, October.
    17. Fah Choy Chia & Martin Skitmore & Goran Runeson & Adrian Bridge, 2014. "Economic development and construction productivity in Malaysia," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(9), pages 874-887, September.
    18. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1987. "Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 1. Theoretical Framework," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(3), pages 353-367, March.
    19. Ekkehard Ernst & Faten Saliba, 2018. "Are House Prices Responsible for Unemployment Persistence?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 795-833, September.
    20. Leo Grebler & Leland S. Burns, 1982. "Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-151, June.
    21. Tudor NISTORESCU & Cristina PLOSCARU, 2010. "Impact Of Economic And Financial Crisis In The Construction Industry," Management and Marketing Journal, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 0(1), pages 25-36, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    2. Henk C. Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan P. Verbruggen, 2004. "A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System," CESifo Working Paper Series 1200, CESifo.
    3. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    4. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021. "Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
    5. Rua, Antonio & Nunes, Luis C., 2005. "Coincident and leading indicators for the euro area: A frequency band approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 503-523.
    6. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    8. Alessandra Iacobucci & Alain Noullez, 2005. "A Frequency Selective Filter for Short-Length Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 75-102, February.
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    10. D. S. G. Pollock, 2016. "Econometric Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 669-691, December.
    11. Robert J. Hodrick, 2020. "An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data," NBER Working Papers 26750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Zivile Zekaite & Gabe de Bondt & Elke Hahn, 2017. "Alice: A New Inflation Monitoring Tool," EcoMod2017 10414, EcoMod.
    13. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
    14. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    15. Cravo, Túlio A., 2011. "Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 754-769.
    16. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    17. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(4), pages 3-65.
    18. Michael Funke & Harm Bandholz, 2003. "In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 277-297.
    19. Wagner, Stephan M. & Mizgier, Kamil J. & Papageorgiou, Stylianos, 2017. "Operational disruptions and business cycles," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 66-78.
    20. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George & Livada, Alexandra, 2016. "Business cycle synchronisation in EMU: Can fiscal policy bring member-countries closer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 551-563.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:17:p:4523-:d:259427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.