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A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain

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  • R Barras
  • D Ferguson

Abstract

In this paper are presented the results of the first phase of a project sponsored by the Economic and Social Research Council to analyse the incidence and causes of building cycles in Britain; five major sectors of construction are covered—private industrial, private commercial, private housing, public housing, and other public building. Spectral analysis, supplemented by turning point analysis, is used to identify the main postwar cycles in each sector, and to measure their relative phasing and severity, distinguishing short 4–5–year ‘demand cycles’ associated with the business cycles from longer ‘supply cycles’ of up to 9-years duration. As the different sectors of building are aggregated, these shorter cycles tend to be smoothed out, revealing a dominant postwar long swing in building activity. This is then compared with previous long swings in the pre-1914 and interwar periods, each of which is associated with successive waves of urbanisation in Britain since the mid-19th century.

Suggested Citation

  • R Barras & D Ferguson, 1985. "A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(10), pages 1369-1391, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:17:y:1985:i:10:p:1369-1391
    DOI: 10.1068/a171369
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1.
    2. Manuel Gottlieb, 1976. "Long Swings in Urban Development," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gott76-1.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    4. R Barras, 1983. "A Simple Theoretical Model of the Office-Development Cycle," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 15(10), pages 1381-1394, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Graham Partington & Max Stevenson, 2001. "The probability and timing of price reversals in the property market," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 389-398.
    2. Igal Charney, 2003. "Unpacking and Repackaging Regional Diversity: Office-Building Trajectories in Canada," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 35(2), pages 231-248, February.
    3. Norman Hutchison & Patricia Fraser & Alastair Adair & Rahul Srivatsa, 2012. "Regime shifts in ex post UK commercial property risk premiums," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 247-269, April.
    4. Vinci, Sabato & Bartolacci, Francesca & Salvia, Rosanna & Salvati, Luca, 2022. "Housing markets, the great crisis, and metropolitan gradients: Insights from Greece, 2000–2014," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. H Leitner, 1994. "Capital Markets, the Development Industry, and Urban Office Market Dynamics: Rethinking Building Cycles," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 26(5), pages 779-802, May.
    6. David Gray & Caroline Elliott, 2015. "Are prices of New dwellings different? A spectral analysis of UK property vintages," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 993860-9938, December.
    7. Yanfang Sun & Haiyan Xie & Xirong Niu, 2019. "Characteristics of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Development of the Chinese Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-14, August.
    8. David Gray, 2015. "Hidden Properties of Irish House Price Vintages," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1317-1353, November.
    9. Richard Barras, 1987. "Technical Change and the Urban Development Cycle," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 5-30, February.
    10. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Tiffany Hutcheson, 1998. "Regime Switches in Property Market Risk Premiums: Some International Comparisons," Working Paper Series 80, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. A J McGough & S Tsolacos, 1997. "The Stylised Facts of the UK Commercial Building Cycles," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 29(3), pages 485-500, March.

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