IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v99y2017i4p1027-1055..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Colin A. Carter
  • Gordon C. Rausser
  • Aaron Smith

Abstract

Legislation passed in 2007 by the U.S. Congress increased by about 1.3 billion bushels the net amount of corn required to be processed annually into ethanol for motor-fuel use. We estimate that corn prices were about 30% higher from 2006 to 2014 than they would have been without this demand increase. We develop a partially identified structural vector autoregression model. Our identification strategy is unique in the literature because it enables us to estimate the effects of transitory shocks, such as weather, separately from the effects of persistent shocks, such as the increased ethanol mandate. Moreover, by only partially identifying our model, we show how to generate robust conclusions without strong identifying assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2017. "Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1027-1055.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:99:y:2017:i:4:p:1027-1055.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aaw010
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Nathan C. Parker, 2015. "Some Inconvenient Truths about Climate Change Policy: The Distributional Impacts of Transportation Policies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1052-1069, December.
    3. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, January.
    4. Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin & Aaron Smith, 2015. "Futures Market Failure?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 40-64.
    5. Gabriel E Lade & C -Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 707-731.
    6. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    7. Michael K. Adjemian & Aaron Smith, 2012. "Using USDA Forecasts to Estimate the Price Flexibility of Demand for Agricultural Commodities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(4), pages 978-995.
    8. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2012. "A Reappraisal of Investing in Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 515-530.
    9. Bruce A. Babcock, 2013. "Ethanol without Subsidies: An Oxymoron or the New Reality?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1317-1324.
    10. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    11. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
    12. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    13. John Burr Williams, 1936. "Speculation and the Carryover," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 50(3), pages 436-455.
    14. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    15. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    16. Rausser, Gordon C. & Adams, Gregory D. & Montgomery, W. David & Smith, Anne E., 2004. "The Social Costs of an MTBE Ban in California," Research Reports 11929, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation.
    17. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:691-747 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    20. Allen B. Paul, 1970. "The Pricing of Binspace—A Contribution to the Theory of Storage," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-12.
    21. Guido W. Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1845-1857, November.
    22. Wallace E. Tyner, 2010. "The integration of energy and agricultural markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 193-201, November.
    23. Pirrong,Craig, 2012. "Commodity Price Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521195898, January.
    24. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    25. Catherine Hausman & Maximilian Auffhammer & Peter Berck, 2012. "Farm Acreage Shocks and Crop Prices: An SVAR Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Biofuels," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 117-136, September.
    26. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    27. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 233-233.
    28. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    29. Ronald N. Johnson & Gary D. Libecap, 2001. "Information distortion and competitive remedies in government transfer programs: The case of ethanol," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 101-134, July.
    30. Gal Hochman & Deepak Rajagopal & David Zilberman, 2010. "Are Biofuels the Culprit? OPEC, Food, and Fuel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 183-187, May.
    31. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    32. Anderson, Soren T. & Elzinga, Andrew, 2014. "A ban on one is a boon for the other: Strict gasoline content rules and implicit ethanol blending mandates," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 258-273.
    33. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    34. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, June.
    36. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    37. Brian D. Wright, 2011. "The Economics of Grain Price Volatility," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 32-58.
    38. Gustafson, Robert L., 1958. "Carryover levels for grains: A method for determining amounts that are optimal under specified conditions," Technical Bulletins 157231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christiane Baumeister & Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6282, CESifo.
    2. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    3. Karel Janda & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2019. "The Relationship Between Fuel and Food Prices: Methods and Outcomes," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 195-216, October.
    4. An, Henry & Qiu, Feng & Rude, James, 2021. "Volatility spillovers between food and fuel markets: Do administrative regulations affect the transmission?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. De Lipsis, Vincenzo & Agnolucci, Paolo, 2024. "Climate change and the US wheat commodity market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Johnson, David R. & Geldner, Nathan B. & Liu, Jing & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Hertel, Thomas, 2023. "Reducing US biofuels requirements mitigates short-term impacts of global population and income growth on agricultural environmental outcomes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    7. Christopher L. Gilbert & Harriet Kasidi Mugera, 2020. "Competitive Storage, Biofuels and the Corn Price," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 384-411, June.
    8. Shon Ferguson & David Ubilava, 2022. "Global commodity market disruption and the fallout," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 737-752, October.
    9. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The relationship between fuel and food prices: Methods, outcomes, and lessons for commodity price risk management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Nicolas Legrand & Christophe Gouel, 2022. "The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data," Working Papers hal-03809825, HAL.
    11. Iglesias Pinedo, Wilman J., 2021. "The impact of Renewable Energy Standards on the biomass supply and agricultural land demand in the US Great Plains Region," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314085, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Baldi, Florencia & Merener, Nicolas, 2021. "Displacement Risk in Agricultural Commodity Markets: The Impact of Plant-Based Meat," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314057, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Taheripour, Farzad & Baumes, Harry & Tyner, Wally Taheripour, Farzad, 2019. "Impacts of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard on Commodity and Food Prices," Conference papers 333127, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Irwin, Scott H., 2020. "Trilogy for troubleshooting convergence: Manipulation, structural imbalance, and storage rates," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    15. Valenti, Daniele & Bertoni, Danilo & Cavicchioli, Davide & Olper, Alessandro, 2023. "Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach," FEEM Working Papers 338780, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    16. Jaimes, Richard & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2020. "Resource-richness and economic growth in contemporary U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Gerveni, Maria & Serra, Teresa & Irwin, Scott H. & Hubbs, Todd, 2023. "Price connectedness in U.S. ethanol terminal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Eugenio S.A. Bobenrieth & Juan R.A. Bobenrieth & Ernesto A. Guerra & Brian D. Wright & Di Zeng, 2021. "Putting the Empirical Commodity Storage Model Back on Track: Crucial Implications of a “Negligible” Trend," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1034-1057, May.
    19. Miller, Jesse & Clark, Christopher M. & Peterson, Steve & Newes, Emily, 2024. "Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    20. Newes, Emily & Clark, Christopher M. & Vimmerstedt, Laura & Peterson, Steve & Burkholder, Dallas & Korotney, David & Inman, Daniel, 2022. "Ethanol production in the United States: The roles of policy, price, and demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    21. Taheripour, Farzad & Baumes, Harry S. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2020. "Economic impacts of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard: An ex-post evaluation," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304252, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    2. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    3. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    4. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Bryan R. Routledge, 2005. "Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-Linear Technology," NBER Working Papers 11864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Daniel Grabowski, 2016. "Causes of the 2000s Food Price Surge: New Evidence from Structural VAR," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201631, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2013. "Conditional Suspension of the US Ethanol Mandate using Threshold Price inside a Competitive Storage Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150717, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage," IMF Working Papers 2012/270, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    9. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    10. Herwartz, Helmut & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 104-116.
    11. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2021. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has it changed over time?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800006209, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. De Lipsis, Vincenzo & Agnolucci, Paolo, 2024. "Climate change and the US wheat commodity market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Nicolas Legrand & Christophe Gouel, 2022. "The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data," Working Papers hal-03809825, HAL.
    16. Serena Ng & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 149-171, October.
    17. Cao, A.N.Q. & Grosche, S.-C., 2018. "Financial and Commodity-specific expectations in soybean futures markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277538, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 3547, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-32.
    20. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Squires, Matthew & Thorp, Susan & Yeung, Danny, 2017. "Determinants of the crude oil futures curve: Inventory, consumption and volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-67.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; energy policy; ethanol; partial identification; vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:99:y:2017:i:4:p:1027-1055.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.