IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v161y2024ics0165188924000150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change and the US wheat commodity market

Author

Listed:
  • De Lipsis, Vincenzo
  • Agnolucci, Paolo

Abstract

We study the impact on the workings of the wheat commodity market of increasing weather variability, one of the direct consequences of climate change. After finding strong evidence of an increase in the variance of weather and harvest for wheat in the US, we develop a structural time series model of the commodity market to investigate the sources and consequences of this increased variability. Exploiting this model, we devise a novel empirical procedure to analyze the impact on price and the potential adjustments of the speculative demand for inventories, as predicted by the rational storage theory. We find that speculation in the physical market for wheat at annual frequency adapted to the greater uncertainty about harvest stabilizing the market price.

Suggested Citation

  • De Lipsis, Vincenzo & Agnolucci, Paolo, 2024. "Climate change and the US wheat commodity market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:161:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924000150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924000150
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104823?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2012. "Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 281-302.
    2. Eugenio S. A. Bobenrieth & Juan R. A. Bobenrieth & Brian D. Wright, 2014. "Bubble Troubles? Rational Storage, Mean Reversion, and Runs in Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 193-208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    4. Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    5. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2017. "Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1027-1055.
    6. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, September.
    7. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-952, October.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    10. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    11. Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
    12. Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & Martin Scherer & Monika Verma, 2012. "Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 514-518, July.
    13. Wright, Brian, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt11715438, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    14. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    16. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    17. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    18. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
    19. Brian Wright, 2014. "Global Biofuels: Key to the Puzzle of Grain Market Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 73-98, Winter.
    20. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2010/129, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, September.
    22. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    23. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    24. Gustafson, Robert L., 1958. "Carryover levels for grains: A method for determining amounts that are optimal under specified conditions," Technical Bulletins 157231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    25. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron & Benjamin Martinez-Lopez, 2013. "Statistically-derived contributions of diverse human influences to 20th century temperature changes," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    26. Catherine Hausman & Maximilian Auffhammer & Peter Berck, 2012. "Farm Acreage Shocks and Crop Prices: An SVAR Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Biofuels," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 117-136, September.
    27. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    28. Abbott, Philip C. & Hurt, Christopher & Tyner, Wallace E., 2011. "What’s Driving Food Prices in 2011?," Issue Reports 112927, Farm Foundation.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    2. Nicolas Legrand & Christophe Gouel, 2022. "The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data," Working Papers hal-03809825, HAL.
    3. Tran, A. Nam & Welch, Jarrod R. & Lobell, David & Roberts, Michael J. & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124827, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2017. "Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1027-1055.
    5. Christopher L. Gilbert & Harriet Kasidi Mugera, 2020. "Competitive Storage, Biofuels and the Corn Price," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 384-411, June.
    6. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    7. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2013. "Conditional Suspension of the US Ethanol Mandate using Threshold Price inside a Competitive Storage Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150717, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    9. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian, 2017. "The Effects of Private Stocks versus Public Stocks on Food Price Volatility," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259185, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    13. Gouel, Christophe & Legrand, Nicolas, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of the Storage Model using Information on Quantities," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235599, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC84138, Joint Research Centre.
    15. Mitraille, Sébastien & Thille, Henry, 2014. "Speculative storage in imperfectly competitive markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 44-59.
    16. repec:ags:aaea22:335622 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    18. Jean‐Paul Chavas & Jian Li, 2020. "A quantile autoregression analysis of price volatility in agricultural markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 273-289, March.
    19. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2015. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 338-351, July.
    20. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage," IMF Working Papers 2012/270, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Tumen, Semih & Unalmis, Deren & Unalmis, Ibrahim & Unsal, D. Filiz, 2016. "Taxing fossil fuels under speculative storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 64-75.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural commodity market; Structural vector autoregression; Climate change; Structural change; Price volatility; Storage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:161:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924000150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.