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Speculation and the Carryover

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  • John Burr Williams

Abstract

Speculation upon the supply, and upon the demand, 436.— Definition of the carryover, 436.— The demand curve, 438.— The supply curve, 438.— Yields and the weather, 439.— Price of a short crop, 441. — Of a bumper crop, 441.— The carrying charge, 441.— Effect of speculation on consumption, 442— On production, 442.— Equilibrium in a one-year's operation, 443.— In a several-years' operation, 446.— Number of years' holding needed, 447.— Saw-tooth course of prices in years without carryover, 448.— Solution by successive approximation, 449.— Corollaries, 450.— Speculation upon the demand, 450.— Note on probability, 452.

Suggested Citation

  • John Burr Williams, 1936. "Speculation and the Carryover," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 50(3), pages 436-455.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:50:y:1936:i:3:p:436-455.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Coleman, Andrew, 2005. "Storage, transport and the law of one price: evidence from nineteenth century U.S. corn markets," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208149, Transportation Research Forum.
    2. Pieroni, Luca & Ricciarelli, Matteo, 2008. "Modelling dynamic storage function in commodity markets: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1080-1092, September.
    3. Constantinos Kardaras & Jan Obłój & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "The Numéraire Property And Long-Term Growth Optimality For Drawdown-Constrained Investments," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 68-95, January.
    4. Ralph Vince, 2023. "Expectation and Optimal Allocations in Existential Contests of Finite, Heavy-Tail-Distributed Outcomes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Marcus J. Chambers & Roy E. Bailey, 1999. "A Statistical Analysis of Wheat Price Fluctuations in England: 1685–1850," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 564-588, September.
    6. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2017. "Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1027-1055.
    7. Robert H. Trent & Robert S. Kemp, 1984. "The Writings Of Henry A. Latané: A Compilation And Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 7(2), pages 161-174, June.
    8. Brian D. Wright, 2012. "International Grain Reserves And Other Instruments to Address Volatility in Grain Markets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 222-260, August.
    9. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : The Role of Storage," Working Papers 1230, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2012. "On Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 505-532, December.
    11. Kardaras, Constantinos, 2010. "Numéraire-invariant preferences in financial modeling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 44993, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Glauber, Joseph W. & Powers, Nicholas J., 1985. "Inventory and Hedging Decision-Making Under A Multi-Period Planning Horizon and Price Uncertainty," 1985 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Ames, Iowa 278562, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Sophie Mitra & Jean‐Marc Boussard, 2012. "A simple model of endogenous agricultural commodity price fluctuations with storage," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 1-15, January.
    14. Constantinos Kardaras, 2009. "Num\'{e}raire-invariant preferences in financial modeling," Papers 0903.3736, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
    15. Jarrod Wilcox & Frank Fabozzi, 2009. "A Discretionary Wealth Approach to Investment Policy," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2434, Yale School of Management.
    16. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Oglend, Atle, 2017. "Estimating the competitive storage model: A simulated likelihood approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 39-56.
    17. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    18. Jarrod Wilcox & Frank Fabozzi, 2009. "A Discretionary Wealth Approach to Investment Policy," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2434, Yale School of Management.
    19. Joseph B. Kadane, 2011. "Partial-Kelly Strategies and Expected Utility: Small-Edge Asymptotics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 4-9, March.

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