IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-52254-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere

Author

Listed:
  • Fenying Cai

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Caihong Liu

    (Vrije University Amsterdam)

  • Dieter Gerten

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Song Yang

    (Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Tuantuan Zhang

    (Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Kaiwen Li

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Jürgen Kurths

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Fudan University)

Abstract

Pronounced spatial disparities in heatwave trends are bound up with a diversity of atmospheric signals with complex variations, including different phases and wavenumbers. However, assessing their relationships quantitatively remains a challenging problem. Here, we use a network-searching approach to identify the strengths of heatwave-related atmospheric teleconnections (AT) with ERA5 reanalysis data. This way, we quantify the close links between heatwave intensity and AT in the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately half of the interannual variability of heatwaves is explained and nearly 80% of the zonally asymmetric trend signs are estimated correctly by the AT changes in the mid-latitudes. We also uncover that the likelihood of extremely hot summers has increased sharply by a factor of 4.5 after 2000 over areas with enhanced AT, but remained almost unchanged over the areas with attenuated AT. Furthermore, reproducing Eastern European heatwave trends among various models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 largely depends on the simulated Eurasian AT changes, highlighting the potentially significant impact of AT shifts on the simulation and projection of heatwaves.

Suggested Citation

  • Fenying Cai & Caihong Liu & Dieter Gerten & Song Yang & Tuantuan Zhang & Kaiwen Li & Jürgen Kurths, 2024. "Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52254-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52254-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52254-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-52254-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keer Zhang & Chang Cao & Haoran Chu & Lei Zhao & Jiayu Zhao & Xuhui Lee, 2023. "Increased heat risk in wet climate induced by urban humid heat," Nature, Nature, vol. 617(7962), pages 738-742, May.
    2. Efi Rousi & Kai Kornhuber & Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga & Fei Luo & Dim Coumou, 2022. "Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. N. Boers & B. Bookhagen & H. M. J. Barbosa & N. Marwan & J. Kurths & J. A. Marengo, 2014. "Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.
    4. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
    5. S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick & S. C. Lewis, 2020. "Increasing trends in regional heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Jun Wang & Yang Chen & Simon F. B. Tett & Zhongwei Yan & Panmao Zhai & Jinming Feng & Jiangjiang Xia, 2020. "Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Niklas Boers & Bedartha Goswami & Aljoscha Rheinwalt & Bodo Bookhagen & Brian Hoskins & Jürgen Kurths, 2019. "Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7744), pages 373-377, February.
    8. Shingirai Nangombe & Tianjun Zhou & Wenxia Zhang & Bo Wu & Shuai Hu & Liwei Zou & Donghuan Li, 2018. "Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 375-380, May.
    9. Robert Vautard & Julien Cattiaux & Tamara Happé & Jitendra Singh & Rémy Bonnet & Christophe Cassou & Dim Coumou & Fabio D’Andrea & Davide Faranda & Erich Fischer & Aurélien Ribes & Sebastian Sippel & , 2023. "Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Somnath Mondal & Ashok K. Mishra & Ruby Leung & Benjamin Cook, 2023. "Global droughts connected by linkages between drought hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Jun Wang & Yang Chen & Weilin Liao & Guanhao He & Simon F. B. Tett & Zhongwei Yan & Panmao Zhai & Jinming Feng & Wenjun Ma & Cunrui Huang & Yamin Hu, 2021. "Anthropogenic emissions and urbanization increase risk of compound hot extremes in cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1084-1089, December.
    12. Xing Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Wenxia Zhang & Liwen Ren & Jie Jiang & Shuai Hu & Meng Zuo & Lixia Zhang & Wenmin Man, 2023. "Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Benjamin Quesada & Robert Vautard & Pascal Yiou & Martin Hirschi & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2012. "Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 736-741, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weijia Wang & Kun Shi & Xiwen Wang & Yunlin Zhang & Boqiang Qin & Yibo Zhang & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2024. "The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Isabel Dorado-Liñán & Blanca Ayarzagüena & Flurin Babst & Guobao Xu & Luis Gil & Giovanna Battipaglia & Allan Buras & Vojtěch Čada & J. Julio Camarero & Liam Cavin & Hugues Claessens & Igor Drobyshev , 2022. "Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Xin-Feng Wei & Wei Yang & Mikael S. Hedenqvist, 2024. "Plastic pollution amplified by a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-3, December.
    4. Yulong Yao & Wei Zhang & Ben Kirtman, 2023. "Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-20, October.
    5. Soledad Collazo & Mariana Barrucand & Matilde Rusticucci, 2023. "Hot and dry compound events in South America: present climate and future projections, and their association with the Pacific Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 299-323, October.
    6. Fan Wang & Meng Gao & Cheng Liu & Ran Zhao & Michael B. McElroy, 2024. "Uniformly elevated future heat stress in China driven by spatially heterogeneous water vapor changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Felix M. Strnad & Jakob Schlör & Ruth Geen & Niklas Boers & Bedartha Goswami, 2023. "Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Efi Rousi & Kai Kornhuber & Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga & Fei Luo & Dim Coumou, 2022. "Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Lifei Lin & Chundi Hu & Bin Wang & Renguang Wu & Zeming Wu & Song Yang & Wenju Cai & Peiliang Li & Xuejun Xiong & Dake Chen, 2024. "Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    11. Sarah Ann Wheeler & Céline Nauges & Alec Zuo, 2021. "How stable are Australian farmers’ climate change risk perceptions? New evidence of the feedback loop between risk perceptions and behaviour," Post-Print hal-04670841, HAL.
    12. Dongdong Gao & Zeqi Wang & Xin Gao & Shunhe Chen & Rong Chen & Yuan Gao, 2024. "Constructing an Ecological Network Based on Heat Environment Risk Assessment: An Optimisation Strategy for Thermal Comfort Coupling Society and Ecology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Stephen J. Déry & Marco A. Hernández-Henríquez & Tricia A. Stadnyk & Tara J. Troy, 2021. "Vanishing weekly hydropeaking cycles in American and Canadian rivers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    14. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    15. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    16. Khosravi, Fatemeh & Lowes, Richard & Ugalde-Loo, Carlos E., 2023. "Cooling is hotting up in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    17. Claudio Morana & Giacomo Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 2017.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Malik, Ihtisham A. & Chowdhury, Hasibul & Alam, Md Samsul, 2023. "Equity market response to natural disasters: Does firm's corporate social responsibility make difference?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    19. Neethu C & K V Ramesh, 2023. "Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-26, October.
    20. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52254-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.