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Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere

Author

Listed:
  • Fenying Cai

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Caihong Liu

    (Vrije University Amsterdam)

  • Dieter Gerten

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Song Yang

    (Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Tuantuan Zhang

    (Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Kaiwen Li

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Jürgen Kurths

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    Fudan University)

Abstract

Pronounced spatial disparities in heatwave trends are bound up with a diversity of atmospheric signals with complex variations, including different phases and wavenumbers. However, assessing their relationships quantitatively remains a challenging problem. Here, we use a network-searching approach to identify the strengths of heatwave-related atmospheric teleconnections (AT) with ERA5 reanalysis data. This way, we quantify the close links between heatwave intensity and AT in the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately half of the interannual variability of heatwaves is explained and nearly 80% of the zonally asymmetric trend signs are estimated correctly by the AT changes in the mid-latitudes. We also uncover that the likelihood of extremely hot summers has increased sharply by a factor of 4.5 after 2000 over areas with enhanced AT, but remained almost unchanged over the areas with attenuated AT. Furthermore, reproducing Eastern European heatwave trends among various models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 largely depends on the simulated Eurasian AT changes, highlighting the potentially significant impact of AT shifts on the simulation and projection of heatwaves.

Suggested Citation

  • Fenying Cai & Caihong Liu & Dieter Gerten & Song Yang & Tuantuan Zhang & Kaiwen Li & Jürgen Kurths, 2024. "Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52254-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52254-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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