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Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Vautard

    (Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université)

  • Julien Cattiaux

    (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

  • Tamara Happé

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Jitendra Singh

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Rémy Bonnet

    (Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université)

  • Christophe Cassou

    (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique)

  • Dim Coumou

    (Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Fabio D’Andrea

    (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS)

  • Davide Faranda

    (UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL)

  • Erich Fischer

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Aurélien Ribes

    (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

  • Sebastian Sippel

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Pascal Yiou

    (UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL)

Abstract

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°−1.4 °C] of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) of the heat extremes trend is induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Western Europe. In the 170 available simulations from 32 different models that we analyzed, including 3 large model ensembles, none have a circulation-induced heat trend as large as observed. This can be due to underestimated circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in view of adaptation to heat waves.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Vautard & Julien Cattiaux & Tamara Happé & Jitendra Singh & Rémy Bonnet & Christophe Cassou & Dim Coumou & Fabio D’Andrea & Davide Faranda & Erich Fischer & Aurélien Ribes & Sebastian Sippel & , 2023. "Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42143-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel E. Horton & Nathaniel C. Johnson & Deepti Singh & Daniel L. Swain & Bala Rajaratnam & Noah S. Diffenbaugh, 2015. "Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends," Nature, Nature, vol. 522(7557), pages 465-469, June.
    2. Efi Rousi & Kai Kornhuber & Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga & Fei Luo & Dim Coumou, 2022. "Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. E. M. Fischer & S. Sippel & R. Knutti, 2021. "Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 689-695, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fenying Cai & Caihong Liu & Dieter Gerten & Song Yang & Tuantuan Zhang & Kaiwen Li & Jürgen Kurths, 2024. "Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Hannah Schuster & Axel Polleres & Amin Anjomshoaa & Johannes Wachs, 2024. "Heat, Health, and Habitats: Analyzing the Intersecting Risks of Climate and Demographic Shifts in Austrian Districts," Papers 2405.00540, arXiv.org.

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