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Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures

Author

Listed:
  • Felix M. Strnad

    (University of Tübingen)

  • Jakob Schlör

    (University of Tübingen)

  • Ruth Geen

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Niklas Boers

    (Technical University Munich
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    University of Exeter)

  • Bedartha Goswami

    (University of Tübingen)

Abstract

Intraseasonal variation of rainfall extremes within boreal summer in the Indo-Pacific region is driven by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), a quasi-periodic north-eastward movement of convective precipitation from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific. Predicting the spatiotemporal location of the BSISO is essential for subseasonal prediction of rainfall extremes but still remains a major challenge due to insufficient understanding of its propagation pathway. Here, using unsupervised machine learning, we characterize how rainfall extremes travel within the region and reveal three distinct propagation modes: north-eastward, eastward-blocked, and quasi-stationary. We show that Pacific sea surface temperatures modulate BSISO propagation — with El Niño-like (La Niña-like) conditions favoring quasi-stationary (eastward-blocked) modes—by changing the background moist static energy via local overturning circulations. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for early warning of rainfall extremes in the region up to four weeks in advance.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix M. Strnad & Jakob Schlör & Ruth Geen & Niklas Boers & Bedartha Goswami, 2023. "Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-41400-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41400-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Boers & B. Bookhagen & H. M. J. Barbosa & N. Marwan & J. Kurths & J. A. Marengo, 2014. "Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Staudt, Christian L. & Sazonovs, Aleksejs & Meyerhenke, Henning, 2016. "NetworKit: A tool suite for large-scale complex network analysis," Network Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 508-530, December.
    3. Niklas Boers & Bedartha Goswami & Aljoscha Rheinwalt & Bodo Bookhagen & Brian Hoskins & Jürgen Kurths, 2019. "Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7744), pages 373-377, February.
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