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Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach

Author

Listed:
  • N. Boers

    (Humboldt University
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • B. Bookhagen

    (University of California
    Present address: Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, Potsdam University, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476, Potsdam, Germany)

  • H. M. J. Barbosa

    (Institute of Physics, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matao)

  • N. Marwan

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • J. Kurths

    (Humboldt University
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Nizhny Novgorod State University
    Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, University of Aberdeen)

  • J. A. Marengo

    (CCST INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra Km 39, Cachoeira Paulista)

Abstract

Changing climatic conditions have led to a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events in the Central Andes of South America. These events are spatially extensive and often result in substantial natural hazards for population, economy and ecology. Here we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by introducing the concept of network divergence on directed networks derived from a non-linear synchronization measure. We apply our method to real-time satellite-derived rainfall data and predict more than 60% (90% during El Niño conditions) of rainfall events above the 99th percentile in the Central Andes. In addition to the societal benefits of predicting natural hazards, our study reveals a linkage between polar and tropical regimes as the responsible mechanism: the interplay of northward migrating frontal systems and a low-level wind channel from the western Amazon to the subtropics.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Boers & B. Bookhagen & H. M. J. Barbosa & N. Marwan & J. Kurths & J. A. Marengo, 2014. "Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:5:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms6199
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6199
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    Cited by:

    1. Thangavel, Bhagyaraj & Srinivasan, Sabarathinam & Kathamuthu, Thamilmaran, 2021. "Extreme events in a forced BVP oscillator: Experimental and numerical studies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    2. Felix M. Strnad & Jakob Schlör & Ruth Geen & Niklas Boers & Bedartha Goswami, 2023. "Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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